College Football Predictions – Appalachian St Mountaineers 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 10-3
2016 ATS – 7-6
The Mountaineers fired off another 10+ win season making them a fantastic 21-5 over the past two years. They almost (should have ?) SHOCKED the WORLD in week one losing an OT battle at Tennessee and their only two losses were understandable – Miami (a 78437 STAR MEGALOCKS COURTESY PHONE WINNER) and Troy (emerging JUGGERNAUT). Last season it was a share of the Sun Belt title. Can they stand alone in 2017 ?
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Sun Belt – TBD
OFFENSE
The Mountaineers were #1 in the Sun Belt in total offense last season and look ready to roll once again. QB Taylor Lamb is not flashy but WINS GAMES, is a decent passer and can be a crafty runner (9 TDs rushing in 2016). Last year’s leading WR Shaedon Meadors is a legit number one man and demands a lot of attention from opposing secondaries. The depth is unproven.
It is really all about the running game as Appalachian St has averaged 240+ yards rushing per game in each of the past three seasons. Sun Belt Offensive POY RB Jalin Moore rushed for over 1,400 yards and 10 TDs despite sharing the load with Marcus Cox (also had 1,000 yards rushing). Moore is a legit star but the depth behind him worries us a bit. The biggest concern for opposing defenses should be the excellent offensive line (5.6 yards per carry; 16 sacks allowed in 2016) that returns 3/5 starters and is probably the best OL in the Sun Belt.
This team should be scary when they have the ball.
DEFENSE
Oh, look. The Mountaineers were also #1 in the Sun Belt in total defense in 2016 yielding a mere 330 yards per game. They were also ranked #2 in the conference in sacks (30).
Seven starters return this season, and most importantly, the defensive line looks really good. The unit is back essentially intact including DE Antonious Sims who led the team in sacks last year (7) and earned 2nd Team Sun Belt honors. Leading tackler LB Eric Boggs is back for duty and the secondary boasts rising star CB Clifton Duck (1st Team Sun Belt, 5 INT). We feel that Appalachian St will allow less than 20 points per game for the 3rd straight season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Michael Rubino did a decent job last season (15/21) but was just 2/8 from 40+ yards. The return units should be fine but they will have a new punter.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
The schedule looks really soft (see below). It is hard to pick out one particular danger spot.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Mountaineers only allowed 12 TD passes last season while bagging 20 INT. That (+8) differential was tied for 2nd best in the FBS (Ohio St 1, Florida & App St T2).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MOUNTAINEERS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
The schedule is comically easy after their opening road tilt with Georgia. They are fortunate to avoid Troy and Arkansas St in Sun Belt play. It seems highly unlikely that this team loses more than one conference game.
This will be a tough squad to make money on in 2017. They tower over many other Sun Belt teams in terms of talent, but sadly, DEGENERATE NATION is fully aware that they are really good. The point spreads in many of their games are going to be have the value SUCKED DRY if you wanna back them vs Vegas. They are going to kick in several sets of teeth but we believe you should refrain from betting on them WILLY NILLY.
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