College Football Predictions – New Mexico St Aggies 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 3-9
2016 ATS – 7-5
The Aggies sputtered their way to another losing season but at least they can claim a victory over rated rival New Mexico. They also managed to beat a decent Louisiana team in double-OT. New Mexico St has averaged less than three wins per season over the past 10 years, and in year five of the Doug Martin era, it might be time to expect better things or go in another direction. Let’s dig in.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Sun Belt – TBD
OFFENSE
The Aggies boast one of the best QBs in the Sun Belt in senior Tyler Rogers. That gives them at least a fighting chance of staying in several games, or at the very minimum, helping out point spread backers with some sweet BACK DOOR ACTION late in the game. Rogers will have to improve upon his 55% completion mark and 16-12 TD to INT ratio if New Mexico St has a shot at becoming bowl-eligible. Almost the entire WR corps returns this year which is great from an experience standpoint, but to be honest, they need to find a true #1 guy in there somewhere. Nobody on the team had more than 400 yards receiving in 2016.
New Mexico St has the ultimate secret weapon in RB Larry Rose who was an AA (!!) RB in 2015 but was saddled with injuries in 2016. “Secret” because he is an absolute game-changer that plays for NEW MEXICO ST. If he can stay healthy this season we expect yuuuge things out of Mr Rose. The offensive line has good size and returns three starters to the mix.
DEFENSE
Defense has been optional in Las Cruces for quite a while. They have yielded 36+ points per game and 450+ yards per contest in each of the past seven seasons. PENETRATION ? 18 sacks is the high-water mark over that time frame. There is finally (?) hope on the horizon as the Aggies have a lot of experience (9 returning starters; 11/12 top tacklers from 2016) and more depth than they have had in quite some time. The stop unit has been supplemented with a lot of junior college transfers that bring talent and give the Aggies a puncher’s chance of handing the grind of an entire season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Aggies look strong at PK as the job will go to either Parker Davidson (15/19 FG last season) or juggernaut recruit freshman Dylan Brown. The return units were awful last season and hopefully they can uncover talent during fall camp.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
October 14 – at Georgia Southern. The Eagles have a tough offense to prepare for and this will be the Aggies’ 3rd consecutive road game. A bye week is on deck.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The last time that New Mexico St made a bowl game was in 1960. It was the Sun Bowl. And it was a 20-13 victory over Utah St. 19 freaking 60.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 9.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the AGGIES a 9.0 ATS Value Rating (Excellent) this season.
This is not a drill. Repeat. This is real. This is not a drill. <sirens going off>
The looks like the best New Mexico St team, at least on paper, in a long long time. They have an offense capable of scoring a lot of points vs most competition. The defense has a lot of experience and a DC (Frank Spaziani) that finally has enough tools in the toolbox to stop opposing defenses more than once per half. This is the Aggies’ last season in the Sun Belt and it would be really nice to see them get six wins and make a bowl game. It won’t be easy, but the schedule lightens up at the end, and the final four games are all winnable. As long as they do not get discouraged early in the season they have a shot to SHOCK THE WORLD.
The Aggies have had only two winning seasons in the past 10 years vs Vegas and this team is as far under the radar as you can possibly get. Our 9.0 ATS Value Rating implies that we project a very high probability of a winning record vs the number, while at the same time, recognize the potential (not certainty) of bagging 8+ covers over the course of 2017.
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