College Football Predictions – South Alabama Jaguars 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 6-7
2016 ATS – 3-10
The Jaguars had a scrappy year finishing the regular season at .500 before getting spanked by Air Force in the Arizona Bowl. They were in most of their games and only lost ONE by more than 10 points before the bowl debacle. Oh, and they beat a really good San Diego St team AGAIN. At the end of the day, however, South Alabama failed yet again to post a winning season. On to 2017.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Sun Belt – TBD
OFFENSE
The Jaguars are going to need improved QB play if they want to even think about making noise in the Sun Belt. QB Dallas Davis had a poor 11-12 TD to INT ratio and is going to have to step up his game without the top-FOUR leaders in receptions from the 2016 squad. Pass protection will need to get a whole lot better as they have allowed 30+ sacks in three of the past four seasons. The running game should be fine with Xavier Johnson (831, 10 TDs) back in the fold along with 3/5 starters on the offensive line. We have a hard time seeing this offense doing any better than the 25 points per game they have averaged in both of the past two campaigns.
DEFENSE
South Alabama has done a fine job on defense recently allowing between 25 and 27 points per game in three of the last four seasons. The bad news ? They have allowed over 200 yards rushing per contest in each of the past two years (ranked #8 Sun Belt on both occasions). This season the front seven looks to be in good shape even without last year’s leading sack man Randy Allen (12). Leading tackler LB Darrell Songy is back as is their great FS Jeremy Reaves. The Jaguars’ defense should be good enough to keep them in most games.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This group appears to be in decent shape with continuity at PK and P. Xavier Johnson had a KO return TD last season but we would be surprised if he handled those duties again given that he is their best offensive player.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
None worth noting.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
South Alabama is still looking for their first bowl victory in school history. They are 0-2 with losses coming in 2014 (Bowling Green) and 2016 (Air Force).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the JAGUARS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
MEGALOCKS SUPER ELITE members were impressed in 2016 when we wrote this about the Jaguars ATS prospects (2.5 ATS Value Rating)…….This is one team we have never been able to get a good handle on, but what we do know is that they are 8-16-1 ATS the past two seasons, and we do not see a light at the end of the tunnel. Value hunters may disagree but we are staying clear for now. They finished up 3-10 ATS. Yuck.
What about 2017 ?
This feels like yet another “close to .500” season for the Jaguars. The schedule starts out tough with games against Ole Miss and Oklahoma St, but keep in mind, the Jaguars are capable of SHOCKING the WORLD from time to time. Last season they upset Mississippi St and San Diego St.
When it comes to backing these guys vs Vegas you really need to let this APPALLING FACTOID percolate….South Alabama is just 11-26-1 (29.7%) (!) (?) vs the point spread over the past three seasons. You would THINK that would eventually turn around, but sometimes, it is not smart to be the first one out of the foxhole. The potential on defense is intriguing but we are not super-pumped about their money-making prospects as we go to press.
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