College Football Predictions – Texas St Bobcats 2017 NCAA Football Preview
2016 Recap
2016 Record – 2-10
2016 ATS – 5-7
A bizarre beginning. And then pretty much what we expected.
Texas St SHOCKED the WORLD in week one with a road victory over a very good Ohio Bobcats team as three TD underdogs. Legend has it that this win will be forever known as the BOBCAT BOWL. After that ? The only win they could muster was a home win over something called Incarnate Word. 2 wins and 10 losses. Pretty much what you would expect as the rebuilding process got underway. Things will get better but it may take some time.
2017 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Sun Belt – TBD
OFFENSE
Texas St managed just 302 yards of offense per game last season and that ranked #126 in the FBS. They get a jolt in the arm with a new sheriff in town in the form of QB Damian Williams (Miss St pedigree). This is almost certainly an upgrade over the collection of quarterbacks that struggled here last season. The Bobcats return all the meaningful producers from last season’s WR corps and also bring back a good receiving TE in senior Gabe Schrade who hauled in 25 balls in 2016. The passing game just might be decent. Last season’s leading rusher Stedman Mayberry is back and he was also #2 on the team in receptions with 41.
It seems to us that the offense has potential – IF – it were not for the huge question mark surrounding the offensive line. Texas St’s OL struggled mightily last season as they could only muster 82 yards per game rushing (DEAD last FBS) while yielding a whopping 44 sacks. The Bobcats return 2/5 starters to the group and need to get a lot better for the offense to reach its potential. Stay tuned.
DEFENSE
The Bobcats were shredded by opposing offenses last season. They had trouble stopping the run and the pass which is a bad combination. They only managed to bag nine sacks which ranked them #127 in the FBS (thanks, East Carolina). Texas St will make strides forward as they return experienced DEs and a PAIR of LBs that recorded 100+ tackles last season (Bryan London, Gabe Loyd). We worry deeply about the pass defense due to the lack of PENETRATION up front and inexperience in the DB group (1/4 returning starters). The Bobcats yielded 67% completions last season which ranked them – wait for it – DEAD LAST in the FBS. That is a concern when you consider that they will face more than a few good passing attacks.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This could be a hot mess. The Bobcats did not make a FG from 40+ yards last season and will feature a new P. The return units can definitely use a lot more spice.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot
September 30 – at Wyoming. This game will be played at the highest altitude in the FBS and they have conference play on deck. We may take a small taste of the Wyoming -65. Just kidding. Sort of. Not really.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Bobcats have never made a bowl game. That streak will continue this season.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BOBCATS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
We have no doubt that this team will be better in 2017. They may not bag more than two or three wins but the trend is upwards. Rebuilding is never fun. Give them time. If the offensive line shows promise and the defense can get just a little bit better these guys make cause some pain with point spread covers via BACK DOOR ACTION. We will avoid for now but keep an open mind.
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