2019 Bahamas Bowl – Buffalo vs Charlotte
The Game
Yes, guy. This is one of our favorite bowl games of the year. We love the Bahamas and it’s great to see these young men have the experience of a lifetime.
Charlotte rattled off five consecutive wins to end the season and come into this tilt playing their best football. Buffalo won five of their last six games and bagged a couple of impressive wins along the way (Temple, Central Michigan) whilst outgaining Penn St on the road in a losing effort. This year we get to watch one team win their first bowl game in school history. Who will have the MINERALS to pull out a victory on foreign soil?
The Details
Buffalo -6.5 Charlotte (58)
(Note: Line is now Buffalo -7, 51.5) (updated 11:30pm Dec 20)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Buffalo -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Buffalo 32.25 Charlotte 25.75
The Match-Up:
Buffalo offense vs Charlotte defense
Buffalo has one of the best rushing attacks in college football (#9 FBS) and they do it without any production from current starting QB Kyle Vantrease. The Bulls have a pair (!) of 1,000-yard running backs in Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks who bring the THUNDER and the LIGHTNING. Patterson has rushed for over 1,600 yards and 17 TDs (!) at an impressive 5.8 yards a pop whilst Marks has also done some fine work (1,008, 8 TD, 4.7). The Bulls passing game only works when the rushing attack can pound away and they have just one player with over 300Y receiving (WR Antonio Nunn – 634). The Bulls like to grind the clock (#4 time of possession) and let their fine OL and rushing attack win the game. Buffalo has thrown just 5 INTs all year and Vantrease has been especially careful with the football (1 INT in 155 attempts).
Charlotte has displayed a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run this year and are #97 in the FBS in rushing defense. RUH ROH. They held up a bit better vs the run down the stretch but their schedule was definitely backloaded with PATSIES. They haven’t allowed that much through the air (#23 passing defense) BUT note that they are very weak in a stat that matters more (#111 passing efficiency D). There are a couple of things you need to know about Charlotte and one is that they have a serious pass rush (36 sacks, #18 FBS) led by the amazing Alex Highsmith (14) who is sure to garner serious interest in the NFL draft. The bad news? Buffalo has one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the country and have only allowed 8 (!) sacks all year (261 attempts).
Charlotte offense vs Buffalo defense
The 49ers definitely have a difference maker at QB as Chris Reynolds provides the kind of dual-threat ability that can give the Bulls some problems. Reynolds has completed 62% of his passes and thrown for 21 TDs whilst rushing for 757 yards and 6 scores. Senior RB Benny LeMay has exceeded the 1,000-yard barrier for the second consecutive year (1,027) and he’s also a dangerous receiver out of the backfield (247, 4 TDs). LeMay missed two games (foot) and still managed to have another solid campaign. The 49ers are #1 in C-USA in YPP offense and #2 in plays of 20+ yards. The WR group is underrated and they average 14.2 yards per completion as a team. WR Victor Tucker bagged 100Y in each of his last two games and has over 800Y on the year (17.3, 6 TD).
The Bulls have an excellent run defense (#4 FBS) (!) and are #1 in the MAC in YPP defense. Charlotte really struggled when LeMay couldn’t get things going (46 vs FAU, 45 vs WK) and the Bulls definitely have what it takes to shut down the run (2.9 YPC). Buffalo has a devastating pass rush (38 sacks, T13 FBS) and note that the Bulls registered four or more sacks in six (!) consecutive games down the stretch before booking a goose egg vs Bowling Green. The Bulls can definitely be had in the THROW GAME and have allowed five teams to throw for 240+ yards. Reynolds provides a dangerous running dimension and it will be interesting to see if he can escape the pass rush and deliver some big throws down the field. Reynolds has thrown 10 INTs and can’t afford to give the ball away to a Bulls squad that would love to control the time of possession battle. One final note. Buffalo is #3 (!) in the FBS in 10+ yard plays allowed. That puts them behind just Clemson and Michigan.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
This is the 6th edition of the Bahamas Bowl and MAC teams are 2-3 SU in paradise….Charlotte turns the locker room into “Club Lit” after wins……Charlotte was outscored 237-227 in C-USA play…The Bulls had a 272-156 scoring edge on their conference foes….This is one of two bowl games featuring a PAIR of teams in the top-10 in net sack margin….(Clemson, Ohio St)….This is Charlotte’s first ever bowl game….Buffalo is 0-3 in bowl action…..Buffalo HC Lance Leipold is #78 on ESPN’s top 150 head coaches of ALL-TIME list…..Leipold won six Division III titles in eight seasons at Wisconsin-Whitewater and reached 100 victories in the quickest fashion of any college football head coach at any level…..Amaze a RANDOM HOTTIE at your local pub with that trivia gem…..Keep an eye on the weather (winds).
Summary
This feels like a game for the Bulls to break out of their bowl drought. It’s a really good match-up as they get to face one of the worst run defenses among bowl participants. They should be able to play their game and limit what Charlotte likes to do on offense. The Buffalo offensive line is also good enough to handle the 49ers pass rush. Both teams should be plenty motivated. Buffalo has the more experienced head coach. The line reflects the beneficial match-up and it’s certainly not cheap to back the MAC squad. Still lean that way.
Conclusion
Lean to Buffalo -6.5.
Slight lean under 58.
(Note: Line is now Buffalo -7, 51.5) (updated 11:30pm Dec 20) Still lean Buffalo. Best strategy appears to be an in-game wager based on the high winds expected during the game. That is why the total has dropped. There still could be an opportunity to make a +EV wager if the weather is much better (or worse) than expected. See you in live chat!)
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the side and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.