2019 National League Central Predictions and Wagering Guide
Yes, guy.
This division looks REALLY competitive and should come down to the final week or two of the season. There will be no GIMMES when these teams play each other as even the Reds and Pirates appear to be decent. Let’s dig in.
MEGALOCKS says:
The Cubs play in a fantastic city and their venue is one of the most iconic in all of sports…..That is where our optimism ends….The win total appears to be priced for near-perfection with an aging and suspect rotation, an unknown situation at closer and uncertainty in the batting order…..Can Bryant stay healthy?…..Can Baez repeat his performance from last season?….Our overall outlook is much more dismal than the market but who knows?……The last time the Cardinals failed to reach the .500 mark was when WELCOME BACK KOTTER was the #1 show on TV…..The lineup is rock solid, can boast the addition of MEGALOCKS favorite Paul Goldschmidt and feature the ageless Yadier Molina at C…..The rotation is fine and the bullpen has a great 1-2 punch to close games…..The Brewers SHOCKED the WORLD last year but can their bullpen continue to dominate?….Is Christian Yelich really that good?…..Is their starting rotation better than what the Marlins will trot out there?…..These are the Days of Our Lives…..They could still add RP Craig Kimbrel as we go to press but pencil them in as just another contender in the division…..If you have never been to VEGAS there is a DEGENERATE GRAVEYARD just outside of the city limits where you can view the final resting places of those who have bet against the Pirates to exceed expectations…..The batting order looks sketchy (when does it ever look GOOD?) but the rotation is very underrated and they boast a closer that throws approximately 139 mph……This feels like a team that can cause some problems for teams that are better “on paper”…..The Reds are no longer the neighborhood PUNCHING BAG but may be a year away from doing serious damage in the division….The season win total is a bit high according to our NL CENTRAL INSIDERS but their lineup can MASH…..If they had more than one pitcher in the rotation that wasn’t a BURGEONING GASCAN we would be more optimistic.
Data as of MARCH 26
Team MLB WAR rank PECOTA projected wins
Cubs 7 79
Cardinals 10 86
Brewers 14 87
Reds 17 80
Pirates 19 80
Remember how we always note to SHOP AROUND? Here are the odds from five reputable books;
Season Win Total
Cubs 89.5 un 140 87.5 un 135 88.5 un 150 87.5 un 114 87.5 un 140
Cardinals 88.5 un 125 88.5 un 115 88.5 un 110 88.5 un 125 88.5 un 115
Brewers 86.5 un 125 86.5 un 110 86.5 ov 130 86.5 ov 115 86.5 ov 120
Reds 78.5 ov 145 78.5 ov 140 79.5 un 120 78.5 ov 121 78.5 ov 130
Pirates 77.5 ov 105 77.5 ov 120 77.5 ov 110 77.5 un 125 77.5 un 110
Win the NL Central
Cubs +210 +188 +200 +200 +200
Cardinals +225 +192 +200 +202 +155
Brewers +240 +250 +240 +235 +200
Reds +750 +1550 +1000 +1116 +1000
Pirates +750 +1950 +1400 +1521 +1800
What are we betting?
Season Win Totals
Cubs under 89.5 -140 (1.40 to win 1.00) (would play down to 87.5)
Pirates over 77.5 -105 (1.05 to win 1.00)
To win the National League Central
Allocation of one unit.
Cardinals +225 (80%)
Pirates +1950 (20%)
Shop around and get the best number that you can. It’s CRITICAL when playing futures.
Best of luck!
ALCS, NLCS and World Series thoughts coming tomorrow!