2019 National League Central Predictions and Wagering Guide

2019 National League Central Predictions and Wagering Guide

Yes, guy.

This division looks REALLY competitive and should come down to the final week or two of the season. There will be no GIMMES when these teams play each other as even the Reds and Pirates appear to be decent. Let’s dig in.


The Cubs play in a fantastic city and their venue is one of the most iconic in all of sports…..That is where our optimism ends….The win total appears to be priced for near-perfection with an aging and suspect rotation, an unknown situation at closer and uncertainty in the batting order…..Can Bryant stay healthy?…..Can Baez repeat his performance from last season?….Our overall outlook is much more dismal than the market but who knows?……The last time the Cardinals failed to reach the .500 mark was when WELCOME BACK KOTTER was the #1 show on TV…..The lineup is rock solid, can boast the addition of MEGALOCKS favorite Paul Goldschmidt and feature the ageless Yadier Molina at C…..The rotation is fine and the bullpen has a great 1-2 punch to close games…..The Brewers SHOCKED the WORLD last year but can their bullpen continue to dominate?….Is Christian Yelich really that good?…..Is their starting rotation better than what the Marlins will trot out there?…..These are the Days of Our Lives…..They could still add RP Craig Kimbrel as we go to press but pencil them in as just another contender in the division…..If you have never been to VEGAS there is a DEGENERATE GRAVEYARD just outside of the city limits where you can view the final resting places of those who have bet against the Pirates to exceed expectations…..The batting order looks sketchy (when does it ever look GOOD?) but the rotation is very underrated and they boast a closer that throws approximately 139 mph……This feels like a team that can cause some problems for teams that are better “on paper”…..The Reds are no longer the neighborhood PUNCHING BAG but may be a year away from doing serious damage in the division….The season win total is a bit high according to our NL CENTRAL INSIDERS but their lineup can MASH…..If they had more than one pitcher in the rotation that wasn’t a BURGEONING GASCAN we would be more optimistic.

Data as of MARCH 26

Team               MLB WAR rank    PECOTA projected wins

Cubs                           7                             79

Cardinals                  10                            86

Brewers                    14                            87

Reds                          17                            80

Pirates                       19                            80

Remember how we always note to SHOP AROUND? Here are the odds from five reputable books;

Season Win Total

Cubs                     89.5 un 140     87.5 un 135   88.5 un 150   87.5 un 114  87.5 un 140

Cardinals             88.5 un 125      88.5 un 115   88.5 un 110   88.5 un 125  88.5 un 115

Brewers                86.5 un 125      86.5 un 110   86.5 ov 130   86.5 ov 115   86.5 ov 120

Reds                      78.5 ov 145       78.5 ov 140   79.5 un 120   78.5 ov 121   78.5 ov 130

Pirates                   77.5 ov 105       77.5 ov 120   77.5 ov 110  77.5 un 125   77.5 un 110

Win the NL Central

Cubs                           +210                 +188              +200              +200              +200

Cardinals                    +225                 +192               +200              +202              +155

Brewers                      +240                +250                +240             +235               +200

Reds                            +750               +1550              +1000          +1116              +1000

Pirates                         +750               +1950             +1400           +1521             +1800

What are we betting?

Season Win Totals

Cubs under 89.5 -140 (1.40 to win 1.00) (would play down to 87.5)

Pirates over 77.5 -105 (1.05 to win 1.00)

To win the National League Central

Allocation of one unit.

Cardinals +225 (80%)

Pirates +1950 (20%)

Shop around and get the best number that you can. It’s CRITICAL when playing futures.

Best of luck!

ALCS, NLCS and World Series thoughts coming tomorrow!