2019 National League East Predictions and Wagering Guide

2019 National League East Predictions and Wagering Guide

Welcome to the GROUP OF DEATH. Nats. Mets. Phillies. Braves. Whoa, Nellie! We can’t wait to get the season started and watch these clubs slug it out.


The Nationals look like the most well-rounded team in the division…..They have a fine rotation led by MAD MAX, Stephen Strasburg and newly-acquired Patrick Corbin, a lights-out closer, a deep and talented lineup and an emerging superstar in OF Juan Soto…..They are the team to beat in our eyes but the Phillies are REALLY close and don’t forget that star OF Bryce Harper is now in Philadelphia and not with the Nats…..They also added one of the best catchers in the game in JT Realmuto along with a few other nice pieces including OF Andrew McCutchen who happens to be a MEGALOCKS favorite……They have a legit #1 ace in Aaron Nola and decent arms behind him…..The Mets are another team with a shot to take down the NL East given the quality of their starting pitching but our NL EAST INSIDERS note that their lineup is a bit shaky with a HODGEPODGE of oft-injured veterans and unproven younger players….The Braves won 90 games last season and have THREE legit stars in the batting order in Acuna Jr, Freeman and Donaldson (insert injured calf joke here)…..The starting pitching is out biggest worry but there seems to be some good news out of spring training in terms of guys recovering from minor injuries……Things need to break right but they have a shot to UPSET the APPLE CART……The Marlins were a total dumpster fire last season and things were not made any easier by your pal Derek Jeter who was discarding assets left, right and center in an (apparent) effort to tank…..A funny thing happened tho…..we had to sweat out our 77,000 STAR MARLINS SEASON WIN TOTAL UNDER POWER LOCK as they fought to the bitter end and won 63 games……This is a nasty division but we are not going to underestimate their willingness to be annoyingly competitive…..60-65 wins seems about right….The best news regarding the Marlins are the new uniforms which look pretty sweeeeeeet.

Data as of MARCH 23

Team               MLB WAR rank    PECOTA projected wins

Nats                            4                                89

Phillies                        8                                89

Mets                            7                                87

Braves                       10                                85

Marlins                      29                                68

Remember how we always note to SHOP AROUND? Here are the odds from five reputable books;

Season Win Total

Nats                     88.5 ov 115      88.5 ov 144   88.5 ov 135    88.5 ov 125   88.5 ov 120

Phillies                 89.5 ov 120      89.5 un 120   89.5 ov 120    89.5 ov 115   89.5 un 120

Mets                     85.5 ov 115      85.5 ov 110    85.5 ov 120    85.5 un 115  85.5 un 115

Braves                  86.5 un 130      86.5 un 127   86.5 un 120    86 un 140     86 un 110

Marlins                 63.5 un 115      63.5 un 130   63.5 un 130   63.5 un 130    63.5 un 120

Win the NL East

Nats                          +300                 +183                +240               +220              +210

Phillies                      +180                 +193                +200                +230              +235

Mets                          +333                 +360                +350                +315              +325

Braves                       +250                 +409                +275                +330              +340

Marlins                      Not this year

What are we betting?

Season Win Totals

No plays.

The National League East is going to be must-watch TV this season with four legit teams scrambling to make the playoffs. Our best guess is that three of the top four exceed their win total and one does not. It’s hard to feel super confident about any of the bunch exceeding 90 wins or coming in below 85.

To win the National League East

Allocation of one unit.

Nationals +300 (60%)  (take no lower than +240)

Braves +409 (40%) (take no lower than +340)

Gonna try to beat the Phillies. We see better value in backing the Nats given that the Bryce Harper acquisition has tilted the odds too much in favor of Philadelphia in our estimation. Harper has only had one 100-RBI season (!) and has hit below .250 (!) in two of the last three campaigns. Washington won 95+ games in three of the last five seasons and are the best bet to get over 90 wins. We had to decide between the Mets and Braves. The Mets always seem to have guys missing a ton of time and it’s hard to see that changing much this season. The Braves starting pitching is a bit of a worry BUT they have a really nice lineup and play good defense. Added bonus? Our MLB INSIDERS tell us that Atlanta is in the running to add star closer Craig Kimbrel. Maybe they get him, maybe they don’t. Will be a bonus if he chooses HOTLANTA.

Shop around and get the best number that you can.

Best of luck!

NL Central up next.