2019 National League West Predictions and Wagering Guide
Data as of MARCH 17
Team MLB WAR rank PECOTA projected wins
Dodgers 2 94
Rockies 19 85
D-Backs 21 81
Padres 17 79
Giants 23 73
Remember how we always note to SHOP AROUND? Here are the odds from five reputable books;
Season Win Total
Dodgers 93.5 ov 115 93.5 ov 110 93.5 ov 110 93.5 un 120 93.5 ov 110
Rockies 84.5 ov 110 84.5 ov 125 84.5 ov 125 84.5 ov 101 84.5 ov 120
D-Backs 74.5 ov 140 75.5 ov 120 75.5 ov 110 75.5 ov 111 75.5 ov 125
Padres 78.5 un 130 78.5 un 140 78.5 un 130 78.5 un 126 78.5 un 130
Giants 73.5 un 125 73.5 un 120 73.5 un 110 73.5 un 106 73.5 un 115
Win the NL West
Dodgers -450 -300 -350 -322 -385
Rockies +400 +380 +550 +391 +400
Padres +1100 +1400 +1000 +1403 +1100
D-Backs WE NO LIKEY LIKEY
Giants PURE FILTH
MEGALOCKS says:
The Dodgers are the team to beat BUT remember they only bested the Rockies by a single game in 2018…..You know it’s almost a certainty that Kershaw is going to miss some time and the rest of the rotation is solid BUT you ALSO know that they will all be injured at some point with everything from a gaggle of blisters to scurvy……They could use a healthy Seager at SS but he is coming off Tommy John and hip surgeries…..They have a lot of parts that can be moved around and the bullpen is solid…..Slightest of leans to the season win total over but can’t pull the trigger……The Rockies won 91 games last season and have been steadily improving (66, 68, 75, 87, 91)….They are going to score runs and the rotation is solid, albeit still relatively unproven….The pen has some nice pieces and this feels like a team that will win at least 85 games and challenge for the division……We like what the Padres are doing but they still might be a year away…..Adding our boy Manny Machado was a POWER MOVE and they now have MM, Kinsler and Hosmer to go along with some decent youngsters…..The bullpen is legit but it will all come down to the starting pitching…..They are not a bunch of household names (YET) but we think there is way more upside than downside with that group…They have not been to the postseason in 12 years…..The D-Backs can’t possibly get better after losing a small handful of stars including the most underrated superstar on earth (Paul Goldschmidt) and the rotation is very sketchy beyond old faithful Zach Grenineneneike……We would have pounded the team total under for 89,000 IMAGINARY TWITTER UNITS but were hoping for a number closer to 80……Ironically we would lean slightly to the over at 74.5 or 75.5…..Hey, we just look for value, yo…..And now we come to the Giants…..if you haven’t had a chance to get caught up on MLB teams yet this offseason, here is a quick summary….They are old and slow and can’t hit and can’t pitch…..Thanks!
What are we betting?
Season Win Totals
Rockies over 84.5 -101 (1.01 to win 1.00)
This number has all the negative built-in (SP regresses) and none of the upside.
Giants under 73.5 -106 (1.06 to win 1.00)
This team is hot garbage.
To win the National League West
Allocation of one unit.
Rockies +550 (75%)
Padres +1403 (25%)
Looking for value behind the top dog, yo.
MEGA, why are you playing the Rockies and Padres if you think the Dodgers are the best team in the division? Great question, Sparky. It’s all about value. You need to make investments that you think will return a profit (+EV / + Expected Value) over time. How do you figure that out?
The first thing to do is to calculate percentages in terms of winning the division. Our estimates:
We find it easiest to eliminate the scrubs first.
Giants (2%) Probably closer to zero but you have to be conservative.
Padres (8%) Lots of upside with this squad.
D-Backs (10%) Have to respect the potential of the starting pitching.
What’s left? 80%.
We think the Dodgers should get 70% of the remainder of the allocation. That makes our fair odds as follows:
Dodgers 56.0% (-127)
Rockies 24.0% (+317)
D-Backs 10% (+900)
Padres 8% (+1150)
Giants 2% (+4900)
We have been using this simple process for decades (literally). Use it for any sport and/or situation that you want. The key is to be conservative and get as many outs as possible.
Best of luck!
NL East up next!