2021 MLB American League Central Predictions and Wagering Guide
The MLB season is quickly approaching and there’s no better time to think about bagging some futures. Rosters are getting finalized and we have a better idea of the injury situations around the league. We prefer to take our stabs close to the start of the year. It’s a tradeoff between having more complete information vs missing out on a better price that was previously available.
In our view there’s not enough talk about how much value you can get in the futures market. Here is the key. SHOP AROUND! Get as many outs as you can. You get to have a rooting interest for an entire season AND have the opportunity to hedge and lock in equity if you make wise choices.
WAR rank is taken from Fangraphs. PECOTA win totals per Baseball Prospectus.
Let’s go!
American League Central
Data as of MARCH 28
Team MLB WAR rank PECOTA win total
Twins 7 91.9
Indians 16 85.8
White Sox 9 80.2
Royals 21 72.0
Tigers 26 66.2
The White Sox have the most balanced team in the division even after the loss of star OF E Jimenez due to injury……They will still SCORE THE BASEBALL very effectively and here’s a FUN FACT…..They have FOUR pitchers that finished in the Top 10 in AL Cy Young voting LY (Giolito, Lynn, Keuchcelelelel, Hendricks)……Our PICK TO CLICK……The Twins will compete for the title but don’t think their pitching is as deep as needed and they’ll need some veterans and/or injury-prone doods (Cruz, Donaldson, Buxton, Sano, etc.) to stay healthy…..The Indians look like a .500ish team to us…..Not enough hitting BUT their pitching looks really solid…..The BEEBS will contend for Cy Young honors and they always seem to find arms….The Royals are a team that could do some damage if they get better than expected pitching….Their offense will be fine and you know they’ll play hard……Probably a year away from SHOCKING THE WORLD……The Tigers are PURE FILTH and are in complete rebuild mode.
Data as of MARCH 28
Remember how we said to SHOP AROUND? Here are the odds from three large and reputable books to give you an idea of where the market currently stands. We search for the best price among 10-12 shops but there’s no point listing them all here. Three are listed for illustrative purposes and we may have gotten slightly better value (rogue lines) at other locales.
NOTE: Most books list season-long win% vs actual values just in case we have issues related to the plandemic once again. We’ll note the 162-game equivalent below.
Season Win Total
White Sox 89.91 un -120 89.1 un -110 89.91 un -115
Twins 88.3 un -115 88.3 un +116 88.3 un -115
Indians 81.81 un -115 79.40 ov -142 81.81 un -125
Royals 73.71 ov -115 75.30 un -125 73.71 ov -105
Tigers 68.90 un -115 68.90 un -113 68.90 un -125
Win the AL Central
White Sox -125 off -120
Twins +125 off +143
NOTE – Will consider AL and World Series futures in a subsequent post. <White Sox will be sprinkled in there>
MEGALOCKS says:
It feels like a two-team race between the White Sox and Twins. One major book is still ‘off’ (due to recalculation – Jimenez injury?). The Twins may be overrated whilst the Royals appear to be underrated according to our DEEP AL CENTRAL INSIDERS. Hard to see LOS TIGRES getting close to 70 wins.
What is our SWEET ACTION?
Season Win Totals
Twins under 88.3 +116 (54.5%). Risk 1.00 to win 1.16
Royals over 73.71 -105 (45.5%). Risk 1.05 to win 1.00
Tigers under 68.9 -113 (42.5%). Risk 1.13 to win 1.00
To win the AL Central
No wagers.
AL WEST UP NEXT!!