2021 MLB American League East Predictions and Wagering Guide
The MLB season is quickly approaching and there’s no better time to think about bagging some futures. Rosters are getting finalized and we have a better idea of the injury situations around the league. We prefer to take our stabs close to the start of the year. It’s a tradeoff between having more complete information vs missing out on a better price that was previously available.
In our view there’s not enough talk about how much value you can get in the futures market. Here is the key. SHOP AROUND! Get as many outs as you can. You get to have a rooting interest for an entire season AND have the opportunity to hedge and lock in equity if you make wise choices.
WAR rank is taken from Fangraphs. PECOTA win totals per Baseball Prospectus.
Let’s go!
American League East
Data as of MARCH 28
Team MLB WAR rank PECOTA win total
Yankees 2 100.1
Rays 15 86.5
Blue Jays 6 84.8
Red Sox 12 80.0
Orioles 27 67.5
The Yankees are the obvious pick to take down the division according to our trusted AL EAST INSIDERS…….They boast an excellent bullpen and have a good-looking starting rotation BUT it’s important to note that whilst Gerrit Cole is a legit ace it’s unclear if Kluber and Taillon will be able to stay healthy for the majority of the season…..It’ll certainly help to get Luis Severino back during the campaign (July?)…..They can mash BUT this is a bunch of doods with a LOT of injury history (GianDONGo, Judge, etc.) and note that 1B Voit is out for a while…….Definitely have talent to spare but 100 wins won’t be easy….Feels like a tossup for 2nd between the Rays and the Blue Jays……..Slight edge to Tampa Bay as they have proven WINNING PEDIGREE and most definitely have a higher floor than Toronto……The Blue Jays are going to SCORE THE BASEBALL like nobody’s business but the starting rotation needs to find a way to cobble together quality starts behind Ryu or else their decent bullpen will get worn down…..Toronto will have to find a new closer….Tampa Bay is good to mix and match on the back end but will be without their K MACHINE N Anderson for a while….The Blue Jays have more upside so they’d be our choice for the team to upset the AL EAST APPLE CART……The Red Sox have a worrisome-looking starting rotation and bullpen whilst featuring a lineup that has more holes and question marks than usual……They may jettison some talent later in the year…..The Orioles aren’t as disgusting as you might think and have some living, breathing, and decent-looking young talent…..There’s just not enough of it and the rotation will likely be a HORROR SHOW…..They’ll need another year to get their SEA LEGS……Overs could be the way to go in Os games.
Data as of MARCH 28
Remember how we said to SHOP AROUND? Here are the odds from three large and reputable books to give you an idea of where the market currently stands. We search for the best price among 10-12 shops but there’s no point listing them all here. Three are listed for illustrative purposes and we may have gotten slightly better value (rogue lines) at other locales.
NOTE: Most books list season-long win% vs actual values just in case we have issues related to the plandemic once again. We’ll note the 162-game equivalent below.
Season Win Total
Yankees 96.39 un -120 95.58 ov -124 96.39 ov -140
Blue Jays 86.67 ov -135 87.48 un -108 86.67 ov -130
Rays 85.05 ov -125 84.24 ov -140 85.05 ov -130
Red Sox 80.19 un -125 81.81 un -172 80.19 un -135
Orioles 63.99 ov -115 63.99 ov -111 63.99 ov -125
Win the AL East
Yankees -190 -209 -210
Blue Jays +333 +391 +440
Rays +400 +477 +525
NOTE – Will consider AL and World Series futures in a subsequent post.
MEGALOCKS says:
Yankees win total looks about right. Blue Jays will be hard pressed to bag 88 wins (per 162) with that rotation (as it stands now). Rays? Probably over or nothing but 85 wins feels accurate. Red Sox are the 4th best team (on paper) and will struggle to get to 80 wins. It could get ugly if they start slow and sell off some pieces. Orioles (gulp) might not be complete doo doo but it’s hard to look at that pitching staff and not break out in hives. Nothing on the division futures yet. The two best strategies are probably 1) Yankees for a unit or 2) 1/2 unit on Jays and Rays hoping for an upset.
What is our SWEET ACTION?
Season Win Totals
Blue Jays under 87.48 (54.0%) -108. Risk 1.08 to win 1.00
Red Sox under 80.19 (49.5%) -125. Risk 1.25 to win 1.00
To win the AL East
No wagers.
AL CENTRAL UP NEXT!!!