2021 MLB American League West Predictions and Wagering Guide
The MLB season is quickly approaching and there’s no better time to think about bagging some futures. Rosters are getting finalized and we have a better idea of the injury situations around the league. We prefer to take our stabs close to the start of the year. It’s a tradeoff between having more complete information vs missing out on a better price that was previously available.
In our view there’s not enough talk about how much value you can get in the futures market. Here is the key. SHOP AROUND! Get as many outs as you can. You get to have a rooting interest for an entire season AND have the opportunity to hedge and lock in equity if you make wise choices.
WAR rank is taken from Fangraphs. PECOTA win totals per Baseball Prospectus.
Let’s go!
American League West
Data as of MARCH 30
Team MLB WAR rank PECOTA win total
Astros 6 92.4
Angels 10 87.0
Athletics 14 82.6
Mariners 23 71.2
Rangers 29 68.2
The Astros are going to hit ASSUMING that their stars (Bregman, Altuve, Correa, etc.) rebound from disappointing shortened scamdemic seasons in 2020…..The starting pitching and bullpen don’t look too promising for a major “contender”…..The Angels don’t appear to have enough pitching to last 162 games….They have some stars in the batting order but not much depth…..The Athletics never get much respect but STILL look like a MAJOR PLAYER and have the balance you want from a BIG BOY, although to be fair, they don’t really scare you on PAPER….The Mariners are in rebuilding mode but have some decent youngsters and are capable of causing some problems in a division that doesn’t have a big-time STUD…..The Rangers look like HOT GARBAGE and are still suffering after losing to the Blue Jays in the playoffs many moons ago….Tough to see jail tat laden Odor failing so miserably….Their fans must feel like a pile of shit right now but note that 2041 isn’t that far away.
Data as of MARCH 30
Remember how we said to SHOP AROUND? Here are the odds from three large and reputable books to give you an idea of where the market currently stands. We search for the best price among 10-12 shops but there’s no point listing them all here. Three are listed for illustrative purposes and we may have gotten slightly better value (rogue lines) at other locales.
NOTE: Most books list season-long win% vs actual values just in case we have issues related to the plandemic once again. We’ll note the 162-game equivalent below.
Season Win Total
Astros 86.67 ov-125 88.29 un+101 86.67 ov-130
Angels 83.43 ov-115 83.43 ov -109 83.43 un-130
Athletics 86.67 ov-125 84.24 ov-137 86.67 un-125
Mariners 72.09 ov-115 72.90 ov-120 72.09 ov-125
Rangers 67.23 un-105 68.85 un-144 67.23 un-120
Win the AL West
Astros +125 +112 +127
Angels +360 +369 +375
Athletics +120 +176 +178
NOTE – Will consider AL and World Series futures in a subsequent post.
MEGALOCKS says:
The Astros are overrated with sub-par pitching and no Springer……Oakland just wins….Texas would be the worst team in baseball if not for the Pirates, but at least Pittsburgh has an awesome baseball stadium, great fans, and underrated city.
What is our SWEET ACTION?
Season Win Totals
Rangers under 67.23 -105 (41.5%)
Athletics over 84.24 -137 (52%)
Astros under 88.29 +101 (54.5%)
To win the AL West
Athletics +178 (1.00 to win 1.78)
NL EAST UP NEXT!!