2021 Armed Forces Bowl – Army vs Missouri

2021 Armed Forces Bowl – Army vs Missouri

posted December 20

The Game

This is one of the most interesting match-ups of the bowl season as the DEVASTATING triple-option rushing attack of Army goes up against an SEC foe in the Armed Forces Bowl. Army has to have a bad taste in their collective mouths after losing to their hated rival Navy in the regular season finale. Missouri? They’ve had an up-and-down campaign but have booked victories in three of their last five outings.

Let’s do itttttttt !

The Details

Army -3.5 Missouri (56.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Army -3

MEGALOCKS Market Consensus – Army -2.3

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Army 30 Missouri 26.5

Army offense vs Missouri defense

It’s pretty simple. Run. Run. Run some more. Army has the #1 rushing attack in the country (286 YPG) whilst the Tigers have been absolutely BRUTAL in terms of stopping the run (#125 FBS, 229 YPG). Army has even managed to hit some big plays in the THROW GAME and keep the defense guessing. There is absolutely no reason to think that Army can’t roll at will on the ground BUT maybe, just maybe, the Tigers will benefit from the extra time off and preparation. And keep in mind, these are still SEC doods on defense.

Missouri offense vs Army defense

The Tigers have one of the best RBs in college football in T Badie who’s a workhorse on the ground (1,604, 14 TD) and the team leader in receptions (54). Badie has booked an impossible 5 (!!) 200+ yard rushing games and is still planning to play as we head to press time. QB C Bazelak has been inconsistent (16-11 TD to INT) and it wouldn’t shock us to see a youngster get a bit of playing time. Missouri is average overall on offense and will need to take advantage of their opportunities. Army plays KEEP AWAY and doesn’t give the opponent too many chances to score. The Black Knights are very stout vs the run (#12 vs the run) and average defending the pass (#69 pass eff D).

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Army is 3-0 in the Armed Forces Bowl having taken care of Houston (W 70-14), San Diego St, and SMU…..Missouri’s last bowl win came back in the 2014 Citrus Bowl when they defeated Minnesota 33-17.

Summary

We’ll lean to the proven commodity that is the Army ground game and the team that always shows up.

Conclusion

Lean – Army -3.5


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.

2 thoughts on “2021 Armed Forces Bowl – Army vs Missouri”

  1. Mega – Obviously the line has adjusted due to both Badie and Bazelak OUT … any changes to your Conclusion at -6.5.

    1. Hey buddy. Anyone that got in when posted at -3.5 or so should be happy and hang on. I wouldn’t try for a middle. If you didn’t get down when posted I still lean Army if you need to get down but wouldn’t get down at that price with my own money. Would prefer to try and get a better number in-game. Alternate idea would be to play Army -9.5 or -10.5 at alternate line at plus money and hope for a blowout which isn’t that far fetched of a possibility. Theory would be that if they cover -6.5 (current number) then they probably cover the bigger number and you get a better payout. GL!!

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