2021 Camellia Bowl – Ball St vs Georgia St

2021 Camellia Bowl – Ball St vs Georgia St

posted December 22

The Game

It’s time to frolic amongst the camellias, yo.

The 7-5 Panthers roll into town playing their best football having won six of their last seven games. They only lost to Appalachian St and Louisiana in Sun Belt play and took down Coastal Carolina. Ball St has had a disappointing campaign after taking down the MAC during the 2020 scamdemic season but they managed to slither into the postseason by beating Buffalo in the regular season finale. Sun Belt vs MAC, buh buh.

Let’s do itttttttt !

The Details

Georgia St -6 Ball St (51)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia St -6.5

MEGALOCKS Market Consensus – Georgia St -6.1

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia St 28.5 Ball St 22.5

Georgia St offense vs Ball St defense

The Panthers have done some serious damage on the ground (222 YPG, #2 Sun Belt, #8 FBS) and the 1-2 punch of T Gregg and J Williams have combined to rumble for 1700 yards and 18 TDs. QB D Grainger has been pretty good since taking over the starting gig (16-4 TD to INT, 58%) and has excellent mobility (524, 2 TD). They aren’t an overly explosive bunch (#8 Sun Belt 20+ yard plays) but should be able to do what they need to do on the ground vs a Ball St run D that’s ranked #92 in the country. They’re #93 in total D and #71 in pass efficiency D and have booked just 23 sacks (#8 MAC).

Ball St offense vs Georgia St defense

Speaking of struggling in the EXPLOSIVE department, the Cardinals are 2nd worst in the MAC in terms of 20+ yards plays and QB D Plitt has been unable to push the ball down the field as effectively as during the 2020 casedemic season (6.2 YPA, 8.6 in 2020). He does, however, take care of the football (5 INT in 365 attempts). They average less than 4 YPC as a team but have a #1 option at RB in C Steele (829, 6 TD). The Panthers have played good defense in the 2nd half of the year and have held six of their last seven opponents to 21 points or less. They’re #4 in the Sun Belt in sacks but Ball St does a pretty good job keeping Plitt clean and it’s hard to sack that dood when he gets the ball out so quick with the short passing game.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Ball St is 1-7 all-time in bowl games but they did POP THE CHERRY last year by taking down San Jose St in the Arizona Bowl (W 34-13)…..The Panthers are 2-2 in SWEET BOWL ACTION and smoked WKU in the 2020 LendingTree Bowl (W 39-21)…..The MAC is 0-4 SU in bowl games as we approach press time (1-3 ATS).

Summary

We’d like to see the line a bit lower but Ball St doesn’t do anything particularly well. They’re a veteran team that doesn’t make mistakes so maybe they can hang around? We’ll roll with the better team and powerful rushing attack and not hope for a CHRISTMAS MIRACLE.

Conclusion

Lean – Georgia St -6


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.

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