2021 Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame vs Oklahoma St

2021 Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame vs Oklahoma St

posted December 31

The Game

It’s a big-time duel in the desert, yo.

Oklahoma St literally came within inches of winning the Big 12 Championship when they fell to Baylor (L 21-16). They also fell to Iowa St in a close one and roll into paradise with a record off 11-2 with the two losses coming by a combined 8 points. Notre Dame came close to making the CFP (again) and their only loss came to playoff participant Cincinnati (L 24-13).

Let’s do itttttt !

The Details

Notre Dame -2 Oklahoma St (45)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Notre Dame 23.5 Oklahoma St 21.5

Notre Dame offense vs Oklahoma St defense

The offense has been good but not great (#73 rush offense, #33 pass) over the course of 2021 but it’s certainly started to look better now that QB J Coan has established himself as the starter (68%, 20-6 TD to INT). K Austin is a legit #1 WR (783, 18.6, 6 TD) and TE M Mayer (768, 5 TD) is close to uncoverable. The bad news? They’ve been inconsistent with the rushing attack and will be without 1000-yard RB K Williams who also caught 42 balls (T2 team). Oklahoma St plays phenomenal D and are gonna make it tough for the Irish in this one. They’ve got the #3 D in the country (!) (278 YPG) and are absolutely NASTY on 3rd downs (#2, 26%) and are tied for the FBS lead in sacks with 54 (!). Notre Dame has allowed 33 sacks and QB J Coan avoids the rush like his feet are nailed to the ground.

Oklahoma St offense vs Notre Dame defense

This isn’t your DADDY’S explosive and deadly Oklahoma St offense, yo. They’re at best METHODICAL PLODDERS but do have a couple of key pieces. QB S Sanders makes a few too many boo boos (16-12 TD to INT) but he’s a proven winner with excellent mobility (543, 6 TD). RB J Warren is a BEEEEST (11334, 11 TD) and was unavailable for the Big 12 title game. Notre Dame plays fine D (again) and have allowed just 6,3,0,14 L4G. They’ll be without star safety K Hamilton but he’s missed quite a bit of time this year.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

It’ll be strange to see the Irish take the field without their long-time and excellent HC Brian Kelly who’s off to LSU……Oklahoma St is close to an auto-bet in bowl games (10-5) under Mike Gundy….They took down YOUR Miami Hurricanes 37-34 in the Cheez-It Bowl at the end of the 2020 casedemic season and have won 4L5 bowl games.

Summary

The under looks tempting but we were hoping for a number in the 47 range. That was never gonna happen we suppose but it can’t hurt to dream. We’ll roll with the Cowboys as they have the coaching edge and the slightly better D.

Conclusion

Lean – Oklahoma St +2


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.

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