2021 San Diego St vs UTSA – San Diego St vs UTSA
posted December 20
The Game
FRISCO time, yo.
It’s a solid Group of Five match-up as the Conference USA champs UTSA (12-1) battle the rough and tough San Diego St Aztecs (11-2) on Tuesday night. MEEP MEEP navigated the regular season only suffering one loss and topped off their excellent season with a convincing win over Western Kentucky to take down the conference title. San Diego St played with a depleted roster in the Mountain West Championship Game and got smoked by Utah St (L 46-13).
Let’s do itttttttt.
The Details
San Diego St 2.5 UTSA (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – San Diego St -3.5 (accounts for UTSA star RB out)
MEGALOCKS Market Consensus – UTSA -1.4 (does not account for the above)
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: San Diego St 25.75 UTSA 23.25
San Diego St offense vs UTSA defense
Yup, it’s ugly.
The Aztecs have one of the worst offenses in the country that has a yuuuge problem with the THROW GAME (#121 pass offense, #105 efficiency) and even their once potent ground game has been SHOOTING BLANKS recently. In their last two games they managed a mere 118 yards vs Boise St (3.1) and 148 vs Utah St (3.8). QB J Brookshire was pretty decent vs Boise St and the Roadrunners weakness is in defending the pass, so maybe, just maybe, San Diego St can get something going thru the air. Their targets are severely limited but WR J Matthews has great hands and is very underrated. UTSA has the #2 run D in C-USA but they did allow a pair of teams to gash them late in the year (Utah St >200, NT >300). SD St is above average in preventing negative plays whilst UTSA is above average in ACHIEVING PENETRATION. It’s pretty simple. If the Aztecs can have some success on the ground and get close to the 200Y mark they have an excellent shot.
UTSA offense vs San Diego St defense
YIKES.
Star RB S McCormick has opted out of the bowl game (1479, 15 TD, 22 receptions) and that is a massive loss for the Roadrunners. QB Frank Harris has been fantastic (67%, 25-5 TD to INT, 362 rush) and it’ll be up to him to have an “A” day utilizing the THROW GAME. They have a loaded group of WRs with their top-three (Franklin/Cephus/Clark) accounting for over 2400 yards and 23 TDs and are sure to give the excellent SD St pass D (#16 FBS pass efficiency) a real challenge. The Aztecs haven’t faced too many legit passing attacks and note that Boise St had a bit of success whilst Utah St did very well thru the air. San Diego St has the #2 (!) run D in the nation and it seems pretty clear that UTSA will have trouble on the ground. Harris is a dangerous runner and will need to utilize his legs as much as possible to keep the chains moving.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
SD St is 6-9 all-time in bowl games and HC B Hoke is 2-3 SU in his career…..UTSA has never won a bowl game in school history….They fell to the Cajuns in last year’s First Responder Bowl (L 31-24)….The Roadrunners should have a slight home-field edge given that the game is in Frisco, Texas…..There has been a significant line move on this bad boy given the decision of RB McCormick and it appears that several UTSA players may miss this game due to the scamdemic….yup….they are so sick that they aren’t even showing symptoms….TRUST the SCIENCE, yo.
Summary
It’s impossible to back UTSA at this point without knowing how many doods might miss the game. Regardless, we expect San Diego St to be in a bad mood after getting trucked by Utah St, and it’s clear that they have the much better D.
Conclusion
Lean – San Diego St -2.5
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.