2021 Independence Bowl – UAB vs BYU
posted December 14
The Game
This is one of the more underrated bowl match-ups of the year as the 10-2 BYU Cougars face the always-scrappy UAB Blazers (8-4). BYU lost back-to-back games in the middle of the year (Boise St, Baylor) but won every other game on the docket. That included an impossible 5-0 (!) mark vs the PAC 12. UAB comes into this bad boy with a decent record (8-4) but they missed out on the C-USA title game for the first time since 2017.
Let’s do ittttttttt !
The Details
BYU -7 UAB (55)
MEGALOCKS LINE – BYU -6.5
MEGALOCKS Market Consensus – BYU -4.9
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: BYU 31 UAB 24
BYU offense vs UAB defense
The Cougars didn’t step back nearly as much as many expected this season and had a potent and balanced offense (#17 FBS total offense, #40 rush, #26 pass). QB Jaren Hall is one of the more underrated players at the QB POSITION (20-5 TD to INT, 307 rush yards) who uses a variety of weapons in the THROW GAME (8 players with 180+ receiving yards). They also have a pair of excellent weapons at WR (P Nacua, G Romney) who each average 17+ YPC. The HITS KEEP COMING when you factor in star RB T Allgeier who’s tallied 20 (!) rushing TDs whilst rumbling for over 1400 yards on the ground. UAB has been stout vs the run (#11 FBS run D, 3.0 YPC) and average vs the pass (24-10 TD to INT, 58%, 6.9). Their pass rush has been decent but not up to the standards of some recent UAB teams (2019,2018) and the Cougars have only allowed 14 sacks all year (#10 FBS).
UAB offense vs BYU defense
The Blazers’ success on offense is predicated behind a bruising rushing attack (#52 FBS, 177 YPG) utilizing the 1-2 combo of D McBride and J Brown (1700+ yards, 19 TD) and a THROW GAME that’s inconsistent BUT capable of hitting deep shots. Their top two WRs T Shropshire and G Prince both average over 20 YPC and have combined for 14 TDs on the season. They’ve allowed WAY too many sacks (32, #11 C-USA) but the good news is that BYU has virtually no pass rush to speak of (17 sacks, #112 FBS). UAB should be able to establish the run (BYU #67 run D) and note that they allowed 210 yards on the ground to the pathetic USC ground game in the season finale, not to mention over 300Y to Baylor.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Game day is still a while away as we approach press time but the early forecast is calling for 50%-70% chance of rain…..Keep tabs on that if you plan on being a major wagering player in this tilt…..UAB has a 1-3 mark in bowl games (1-2 under HC Bill Clark)…..BYU is 16-21-1 and they smoked UCF in last season’s Boca Raton Bowl (W 49-23)…..The Cougars played the #65 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings….UAB #114…..The Blazers are dead last in the FBS in penalty yards per game.
Summary
We’ve gone back and forth on this bad boy but will side with the dog in this one. BYU has struggled vs many of the better Ds they’ve faced and the Blazers are likely to be the more motivated bunch. They’ve also played very well in November and were a miracle play away from taking down UTSA on the road and winning the division.
Conclusion
Lean – UAB +7
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.