2021 MLB National League East Predictions and Wagering Guide
The MLB season is quickly approaching and there’s no better time to think about bagging some futures. Rosters are getting finalized and we have a better idea of the injury situations around the league. We prefer to take our stabs close to the start of the year. It’s a tradeoff between having more complete information vs missing out on a better price that was previously available.
In our view there’s not enough talk about how much value you can get in the futures market. Here is the key. SHOP AROUND! Get as many outs as you can. You get to have a rooting interest for an entire season AND have the opportunity to hedge and lock in equity if you make wise choices.
WAR rank is taken from Fangraphs. PECOTA win totals per Baseball Prospectus.
Let’s go!
National League East
Data as of MARCH 31
Team MLB WAR rank PECOTA win total
Mets 4 91.8
Nationals 11 83.4
Phillies 13 83.5
Braves 8 83.0
Marlins 25 70.1
The Mets have their best team in a long time as the offense will be able to complement their fine pitching…..Will help to get Carrasco and Noah back at some point…..Our PICK to CLICK in a tough division…..The Braves can absolutely RAKE but do they have enough starting pitching?…….Seems unlikely without making additions later in the year……The Nationals are an intriguing longshot that isn’t getting much respect in the futures market…..There’s still plenty of talent on that team but they’ll need to avoid major hits from the injury bug……The pen looks sketchy…..The Phillies are also a team to be reckoned with and will be a HOT HANDFUL if they get better than expected production from the rotation…..The Marlins have a lot of promising arms but just don’t have the offense to contend in a deep division…..Will probably be a winner vs the Vegas ML over 162 games.
Data as of MARCH 31
Remember how we said to SHOP AROUND? Here are the odds from three large and reputable books to give you an idea of where the market currently stands. We search for the best price among 10-12 shops but there’s no point listing them all here. Three are listed for illustrative purposes and we may have gotten slightly better value (rogue lines) at other locales.
NOTE: Most books list season-long win% vs actual values just in case we have issues related to the plandemic once again. We’ll note the 162-game equivalent below.
Season Win Total
Mets 91.53 ov-115 90.72 ov-110 91.53 un-135
Braves 91.53 ov-115 91.53 un-136 91.53 ov-115
Nationals 85.05 un-120 83.43 ov-123 85.05 ov-125
Phillies 80.19 ov-125 81.81 un-124 80.19 ov-140
Marlins 72.09 ov-115 72.90 un-129 72.09 ov-130
Win the NL East
Mets +140 +158 +148
Braves +135 +148 +148
Phillies +800 +771 +1000
Nationals +575 +602 +600
NOTE – Will consider NL and World Series futures in a subsequent post.
MEGALOCKS says:
This is going to be a lot of fun. It feels like the Mets have the best overall roster and the Phillies have the look of a team that’s likely to win 50%+ of their games.
What is our SWEET ACTION?
Season Win Totals
Phillies over 80.19 -125 (49.5%) Risk 1.25 to win 1.00
To win the NL East
Mets +158 (80% of one unit)
Phillies +1000 (20% of one unit)
NL WEST UP NEXT!!