2021 MLB National League West Predictions and Wagering Guide
The MLB season is quickly approaching and there’s no better time to think about bagging some futures. Rosters are getting finalized and we have a better idea of the injury situations around the league. We prefer to take our stabs close to the start of the year. It’s a tradeoff between having more complete information vs missing out on a better price that was previously available.
In our view there’s not enough talk about how much value you can get in the futures market. Here is the key. SHOP AROUND! Get as many outs as you can. You get to have a rooting interest for an entire season AND have the opportunity to hedge and lock in equity if you make wise choices.
WAR rank is taken from Fangraphs. PECOTA win totals per Baseball Prospectus.
Let’s go!
National League West
Data as of MARCH 31
Team MLB WAR rank PECOTA win total
Dodgers 1 103.5
Padres 3 95.1
Giants 22 73.5
D-Backs 24 76.6
Rockies 28 61.4
The Dodgers have the best roster in baseball and there’s no reason to think that they can’t repeat…..It won’t be easy, but they’re a tough fade……The Padres are easily one of the five best teams in MLB and will look to UPSET the APPLE CART…..We’ll definitely be cheering for them and the year-long battle with LA will be awesome…..The rest of the division is in rebuild/reload mode…..The D-Backs have some interesting arms but have a weak roster overall…..The Giants have plunged into the ABYSS after a long run of excellence and are a long ways off contending….The Rockies are a TRASH HEAP which is sad because Coors games are entertaining but even we may have to skip over their contests this year.
Data as of MARCH 31
Remember how we said to SHOP AROUND? Here are the odds from three large and reputable books to give you an idea of where the market currently stands. We search for the best price among 10-12 shops but there’s no point listing them all here. Three are listed for illustrative purposes and we may have gotten slightly better value (rogue lines) at other locales.
NOTE: Most books list season-long win% vs actual values just in case we have issues related to the plandemic once again. We’ll note the 162-game equivalent below.
Season Win Total
Dodgers 102.87 ov-115 100.44 ov-170 102.87 ov-125
Padres 93.15 ov-135 95.58 ov-111 93.15 ov-140
D-Backs 73.71 ov-115 73.71 ov-133 73.71 ov-125
Giants (we are not interested……………………………………………….)
Rockies (we are not interested……………………………………………….)
Win the NL West
Dodgers OFF -258 -242
Padres OFF +198 +203
NOTE – Will consider NL and World Series futures in a subsequent post.
MEGALOCKS says:
Not much to say about this division that you can’t figure out for yourself, yo……Think the fair odds on the Padres to win the NL West are closer to +160 so will take a small shot…..Hard to see them not bagging 94 wins with the PURE FILTH at the bottom of the division and a weak NL Central.
What is our SWEET ACTION?
Season Win Totals
Padres over 93.15 (57.5%) -135 Risk 1.35 to win 1.00
To win the NL West
Padres +203 Risk 1.00 to win 2.03
NL CENTRAL UP NEXT!!