2021 New Mexico Bowl – UTEP vs Fresno St
posted December 13
The Game
Time for the Heisenberg Bowl, yo.
The Fresno St Bulldogs had a good enough team to win the Mountain West but dropped a puzzler to Hawaii and got smoked by Boise St at home. They have a chance to win their 10th game but will be without HC K Deboer who’s off to Washington to take the over the Huskies. UTEP was able to SHOCK the WORLD and more than double their projected win total (7-5). They didn’t exactly beat a WHO’S WHO of college football but have proven to be a scrappy bunch that cannot be underestimated.
Let’s go!!
The Details
Fresno St -11.5 UTEP (51)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Fresno St -11
MEGALOCKS Market Consensus – Fresno St -15.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Fresno St 31.25 UTEP 19.75
Fresno St offense vs UTEP defense
Yes, guy.
Star QB J Haener took his name out of the transfer portal and appears to be a GO for this game. Haener engineered a yuuuuge upset win and 900 STAR MEGALOCKS SAFE AND EFFECTIVE SUPER LOCK when they took down UCLA early in the year. He’s thrown for over 3,800 yards and 32 TDs and note that seven different doooods have 200+ receiving yards. #1 WR J Cropper has caught 76 balls and tallied 11 TDs. R Rivers and J Mims have combined for over 1,300 yards on the ground and Rivers is one of the best pass catching RBs in the country. UTEP has a pretty good D (#31 total D, #42 run D, #23 pass eff D) but they haven’t played too many good passing teams this year. Boise St lit them up for 343 yards thru the air and UTSA threw for 286. Their other ten opponents were lame passing teams on the whole. Fresno St has been hit and miss protecting the passer (#5 MW sacks allowed) but the Miners don’t have a killer pass rush to say the least (24 sacks, #8 C-USA).
UTEP offense vs Fresno St defense
The Miners have done just enough on offense to get things done but they’ve only scored 30+ vs two FBS teams (New Mexico St, Rice). They rely on run-focused offense led by the 1-2 RB punch of R Awatt and D Hankins (combined 1228 rush yds, 11 TD) and an opportunistic THROW GAME to hit a few big shots per contest. WR J Cowing is a legit #1 option (67, 1330, 19.9, 7 TD) and one of the most unheralded receiving threats in the nation. Fresno has allowed 30+ on five occasions but have been pretty good overall. They rank #33 in the FBS in total D, #32 in run D, and #19 in pass efficiency D. They’ve booked 30 sacks (#5 MW) and have registered four or more on five occasions. UTEP has only allowed 17 sacks to date so we don’t expect Fresno to get to the QB on too many occasions.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The Miners have lost six straight bowl games and have the longest bowl drought in the FBS….They last tasted victory in the 1967 Sun Bowl when they took down Ole Miss by a score of 14-7….Rumor has it that Twitter was CHOCK FULL of whiny bitches complaining about pass interference calls after the game….Fresno St is 12-13 in bowl action but haven’t participated in one since 2018…..As always keep an eye on the news as we get closer to game day….There are a number of excellent offensive players that could opt out of this bad boy.
Summary
Fresno is the more talented and explosive team BUT this is a yuuuuge game for MINER NATION. They’ll show up, but we can’t say the same for Fresno St. Mild interest in the dog.
Conclusion
Lean – UTEP +11.5
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.