2022 Armed Forces Bowl – Air Force vs Baylor
posted December 18
The Game
We’re likely to get a very competitive game as the tough and disciplined Air Force Falcons battle the Baylor Bears in the Armed Forces Bowl down in Fort Worth, Texas. Baylor struggled in defense of their 2021 Big 12 title and finished the regular season at 6-6 after losing their final three contests. Air Force is riding a four-game HEEETER in which they allowed a total of 25 points. Let’s gooo!
The Details
Baylor -5.5 Air Force (48)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Baylor -4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Baylor 26.75 Air Force 21.25
Baylor offense vs Air Force defense
The Bears stubbed their toes a few times this year but were pretty decent on offense on the whole (#35 FBS total offense, #31 scoring offense). QB B Shapen had his moments but made too many mistakes (16-10 TD to INT) over the course of the regular season. They’ve got an excellent three-headed RB situation in which all three doods averaged 5+ YPC and the trio combined for over 1,900 yards and 25 (!) TDs. Air Force has been REALLY stingy on defense this year and rank #1 (!) in the nation in total defense (256 YPG) and #9 vs the run (100 YPG). It’s fair to say that Air Force has played a very weak set of offenses so Baylor will have a bit of a challenge getting to their implied team total.
Air Force offense vs Baylor defense
The Falcons have moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on the ground, even by their lofty standards (#1 FBS, 331 YPG), but those yards haven’t translated into enough points (28 PPG, #72) for our liking. RB Brad Roberts is an absolute BEAST (1,612, 15 TD) and companion John Lee Eldridge averages 7.9 YPC. QB Haaziq Daniels is a crafty runner who lacks explosiveness, and he seems to injure his ankle every four minutes. Thankfully for the Falcons, he’s a warrior and plays thru anything. Baylor has been a disappointment on defense compared to last season (#59 total D, #45 run D; #31, #17 respectively LY) and they allowed three of their last four opponents to rush for 180+ yards. Note that Baylor fired their DC after the season.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Baylor’s special teams ranks #115 according to Football Outsiders and they shitcanned their special teams coordinator after the regular season concluded…..Air Force ranks #57 in that regard and they’ve got a fine PK in M Dapore (34-34 XP, 15-20 FG) who’s hit three BOMBS from 50+ yards….AF HC Troy Calhoun is 6-5 in bowl action and has won three straight.
Summary
This should be a competitive and entertaining game and it appears as tho we don’t have too many players quitting before the bowl game as we approach press time. The Falcons have to be the more motivated bunch but we do worry that Baylor will be their toughest opponent of the season. We’ll call for a one-score game and lean to taking the points.
Conclusion
Lean – Air Force +5.5
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.