2022 Bahamas Bowl – UAB vs Miami Ohio
posted December 9, 2022
The Game
There’s no better way to kick off bowl season than with a trip to the beautiful BAHAMAS!
UAB arrives in PARADISE off a win in the season finale that made them bowl eligible and there’s a lot of excitement around the program given the hire of your boy Trent Dilfer as the 2023 HC. Miami Ohio was sitting at 4-6 and looked like DEAD TEAM WALKING before they rallied to win their final two games in order to book a bowl bid.
Who’s gonna take down THE PRIME MINISTER’S TROPHY?
The Details
UAB -10 Miami Ohio (44.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – UAB -10.5
MEGALOCKS market consensus – UAB -11.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: UAB 27.25 Miami Ohio 17.25
UAB offense vs Miami Ohio defense
The Blazers are one of the most devastating rushing teams in the country and have a PAIR of beasts at RB in C-USA OPOY D McBride (1713, 7.4, 19. TD) and J Brown (832, 5.9, 6 TD). It looks as tho both doods will be playing in this game but it’ll be interesting to see how much playing time McBride gets in this one. UAB was dead last in C-USA in passing offense and rely on big plays in the THROW GAME vs dinking and dunking action. The Blazers’ top-three WRs all average 17+ YPC and #1 T Shropshire averaged 21 YPC. Miami was the #1 team in the MAC in run D but note that they allowed 194,200,265 on the ground L3G. The pass D was decent enough in MAC play but they’ll be without #1 CB J Saunders who led the team in PBU (10) and was tied for the team lead in INT (2). They don’t get much pressure on the QB but have a ROCK SOLID group of linebackers that’ll make things challenging at times for the UAB ground attack.
Miami Ohio offense vs UAB defense
“Yuck” pretty much sums it up, yo. The Redhawks boast the #122 offense in the nation (#77 rush, #121 pass) and they averaged a meager 4.88 YPP during the regular season (#11 MAC). They’ll be rolling with back-up QB Aveon Smith given that B Gabbert hit the transfer portal and note that Smith leads the team in rushing (503Y) but is still far from a polished passer (49%, 9-5 TD to INT). They’ll be challenged to get much done thru the air as the Blazers are REALLY good vs the pass (#18 FBS pass efficiency D, 14-10 TD to INT) and they only have one dangerous weapon at WR in M Hippenhammer (726, 8 TD). The Blazers have displayed an unusually SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run (#94 FBS run D) and allowed the most YPG on the ground (171) since 2017. Thankfully for UAB the Redhawks top-two RBs average a mere 4.3, 3.8 YPC. Miami Ohio has allowed 34 sacks (!) but the Blazers don’t have much of a pass rush (21 sacks).
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Both teams have done a good job in the turnover department…..Miami Ohio is +8 and UAB is +3…..UAB was 5-1 at home but just 1-5 ON THE HIGHWAY…..They didn’t beat anyone of consequence on the road but booked double-digit wins over three bowl teams (Ga Southern, MTSU, N Texas) at home…..Those wins are better than anything that Miami Ohio accomplished…..They didn’t beat a single bowl team all year…..It’s probably a good idea to check the weather as we get closer to gameday…..Medium+ winds are likely, will probably be dry but you never know……UAB allowed 20+ points to 10/11 FBS teams they played this season……Miami Ohio has failed to score 20 points in HALF of their games……UAB is 4-8 ATS…..Miami Ohio is 5-7 ATS……Redhawks HC Chuck Martin is 3-0 ATS in bowl games and he covered as 14-point dogs vs Miss St and Louisiana.
Summary
This looks like a good spot for UAB. Miami has an above-average defense but we don’t see them having much success on offense. UAB appears to be plenty motivated if you believe the words of interim HC B Vincent and the roster remains mostly intact as we approach press time. It may take a while for the UAB ground game to get going but they should be able to wear the MAC defense down and eventually win by double digits.
Conclusion
Lean – UAB -9.5 -113
There are mostly “10s” posted around the globe; You can still find -9.5 at some major shops in Vegas (e.g. Circa, Caesars) and offshore (e.g. Bookmaker). Happy hunting!
We may be back on game day to post a prop bet idea or two. Stay tuned!
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.