2022 Camellia Bowl – Buffalo vs Georgia Southern
posted December 22
The Game
We’ve got some nasty high noon MAC vs FUN BELT bowl game action on December 27th as Georgia Southern battles Buffalo in the Camellia Bowl. The Bulls were right in the thick of the MAC East race at midseason but went GLUG GLUG GLUG down the stretch and needed a CLOSE SHAVE vs Akron in the season finale to gain bowl eligibility. Georgia Southern has been better than expected and they took down Appalachian St in their final game of the regular season to book a ticket to the postseason. Let’s goooooo !
The Details
Georgia Southern -3.5 Buffalo (67.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia Southern -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia Southern 35.5 Buffalo 32
Georgia Southern offense vs Buffalo defense
The Eagles made yuuuge strides on offense this season and have booked 33.7 PPG (#30 FBS) after managing a paltry 20 PPG in 2021 (#115). Former Buffalo Bulls (!!) QB K Vantrease has done serious damage thru the air but has made a few too many mistakes along the way (3,901, 25-15 TD to INT). The Eagles #4 passing attack should have success vs a Buffalo pass defense that’s struggled vs the decent THROW GAMES that they’ve faced this season (11-1 TD to INT vs Ohio, Holy Cross, Coastal Carolina). Depth at the WR spot is a bit lacking due to injury but the good news is that the Eagles will have their top-two options available for this tilt. They don’t rely too much on the ground attack (141 YPG, #83 FBS) but if they choose to sprinkle in some run game action they’ll be able to do a bit of damage vs the SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Bulls (175 YPG, #98). More good news? The Eagles have only allowed 7 sacks all season (#2 FBS) despite throwing the ball all over the yard and the Bulls have little pass rush to speak of (24 sacks, #83).
Buffalo offense vs Georgia Southern defense
The Bulls have been mediocre on offense (#73 rush, #63 pass) and they struggled to get much going down the stretch in November. QB C Snyder has been average (17-8 TD to INT, 59%) and he only averages 6.6 YPA. The Bulls are dealing with injury concerns at RB and it’s still not clear as we approach press time who’ll be available vs Georgia Southern. They average a mere 3.5 YPC on the ground as a team (#10 MAC) but the good news is that they face a horrible Georgia Southern run D (240 YPG, #129) that gives up OODLES of yards. Their pass D is a bit better (#78 pass eff D) but they may be without their top CB (and arguably their best defensive player) in D Canteen.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The Bulls have won their last two bowl games (2019, 2020) but this will be the first shot in the postseason for Buffalo HC Maurice Linguist…..Georgia Southern HC Clay Helton was 2-3 in bowl action with USC…..The Eagles played the #81 schedule according to Sagarin…..Buffalo #118……It’s worth mentioning again that NARRATIVE STREET is in full effect in this game given that Eagles QB K Vantrease was with the Bulls program for a long time………Revenge LOCK, or overrated storyline??
Summary
We’ll roll with the team that should be more motivated under HC Clay Helton to GIT ER DONE and playing relatively close to home can’t hurt. One could easily argue that this is the worst FBS team that Georgia Southern has played all season. And even BRANCH COVIDIANS would have to take off their seven masks and admit that Buffalo has only faced one offense in the same area code as what Georgia Southern brings to the table (Ohio).
Conclusion
Lean – Georgia Southern -3.5
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.