2022 Cheez-It Bowl – Florida St vs Oklahoma
posted December 28
The Game
Grab all the simulated cheese snacks you can find and plop that expanding butt on the couch because it’s CHEEZ-IT BOWL time! The Seminoles have been on a major roll since about the middle of the season and are riding a five-game winning streak heading into this one. The Sooners have struggled this year by their lofty standards and were out of the Big 12 race in fairly short order. Can they rebound and SHOCK the WORLD?
The Details
Florida St -9.5 Oklahoma (66)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida St -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida St 37.75 Oklahoma 28.25
Florida St offense vs Oklahoma defense
The Seminoles have moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE and currently rank #12 in the nation in rushing offense and #40 with the passing attack. They’ve been cooking down the stretch and have scored 41,45,38,49,45 in their L5G. QB J Travis has developed into one of the most lethal dual-threat QBs around (22-4 TD to INT, 367 rush, 7 TD) and he’s got a knack for making a lot out of nothing when plays break down. Florida St has a very deep RB corps and they average 5.5 YPC as a team (31 rush TD, #17 FBS). Travis spreads the ball around pretty well with the THROW GAME as twelve different doods have caught a TD pass. WR J Wilson is dangerous #1 option that averages 20 YPC (7 TD). Oklahoma’s defense has been a disaster this season vs the run (189 YPG, #108 FBS) and that almost certainly spells trouble vs Florida St. One potential bright spot is in the PENETRATION department as Oklahoma is #1 in the Big in TFL/game. Maybe they can create a bunch of negative plays and force a turnover or two?
Oklahoma offense vs Florida St defense
The Sooners have been pretty good on offense as well (#13 rush, #42 pass) but they only scored 33 PPG after booking 39+ every year for what seemed like an eternity. QB D Gabriel has done a good job overall (24-6 TD to INT, 63%) but his stats are certainly less-impressive than what we’ve seen from recent Oklahoma QBs. The WR/TE group is decent but lacks star power other than #1 WR M Mims who’s booked a 1,000-yard campaign (19.3, 6 TD). The Sooners got some bad news when their legit #1 RB E Gray decided to quit (1,366, 6.4, 11 TD, 33 receptions) and there’s a pick drop-off from him to the back-ups. Also note that Oklahoma will be without both (!) of their starting tackles and that’s not ideal. Florida St has been sneaky-good on defense (#13 total defense, #17 scoring defense) and recall that they allowed 16,3,3,17 as the season concluded before giving up 38 to the Gators in the regular season finale. The Noles are #5 in the ACC in sacks (34) and it’ll be interesting to see how Oklahoma’s OL holds up with fresh meat starting at both tackle spots.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Florida St hasn’t been to a bowl game since the epic 2019 Sun Bowl event when they lost 20-14 to Arizona St……HC Mike Norvell was 0-3 in bowl games with Memphis….Florida St can bag their first double-digit winning season since 2016 with a win over Oklahoma……Oklahoma ranks #128 in time of possession……Neither team’s PK gives us much confidence….Oklahoma’s Z Schmit is 11/16 and the Seminoles’ Ryan Fitzgerald loves to spray the ball all over the place on FG attempts (10/17).
Summary
Florida St is hoping to use this game as a springboard into 2023 where they feel they can be CFP contenders. They’ve smashed and killed for a good portion of the season and woulda shoulda coulda won each of the three games that they dropped. It’s hard to find a reason for Oklahoma to hang around for four quarters, but then again, this is college football, yo.
We’ll take a shot with a motivated team that we currently rate as one of the top 10-12 teams in the country.
Conclusion
Official play – Florida St -9.5 -108 <sent 12:08pm Dec 24>
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.