2022 Fiesta Bowl – TCU vs Michigan

2022 Fiesta Bowl – TCU vs Michigan

posted December 30

The Game

It’s PLAYOFF time, buh buh.

We’ve got a very interesting match-up to look forward to in the Fiesta Bowl as the Big Ten champs from Michigan take on the explosive Horned Frogs of TCU. Michigan had a few close calls during the regular season (Maryland, Illinois) but pretty much dominated the competition all season long. That domination included a pasting of THE Ohio St University on the road (W 45-23). TCU played a HIGH-WIRE act in Big 12 play and got to the Big 12 title game with an undefeated record. Kansas St took them down in a thrilling OT match and it’ll be interesting to see how the Horned Frogs rebound after their first loss of the campaign.

The Details

Michigan -7.5 TCU (58)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -7

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Michigan 32.75 TCU 25.25

Michigan offense vs TCU defense

The Wolverines average a whopping 40 PPG (#6 FBS) and they’ve got a bruising rushing attack (243 YPG, #5 FBS) to go along with a very efficient THROW GAME (#23 FBS passing efficiency). Michigan showed that they could light it up when they dismantled Ohio St without star RB B Corum and they followed that up by scoring 43 vs Purdue. The offense hit a small handful of yuuuge plays and that should give them confidence heading into this tilt. The key to making everything work is the best offensive line in college football and that means trouble for a TCU run defense that’s been pushed around at times (150 YPG, #66 FBS). Michigan doesn’t have elite weaponry at WR/TE but they’ve proven to be able to hit big plays once defenses are forced to commit more resources to stopping the run. Twelve different doods have caught a pass of 20+ yards for the Wolverines this season and it’ll be interesting to see how the fine TCU secondary (#22 FBS pass efficiency D) stacks up on gameday.

TCU offense vs Michigan defense

The Horned Frogs also average 40 PPG (!) and they’ve got one of the most balanced attacks in the country (#25 FBS rush, #25 pass). QB M Duggan has put the team on his back on many occasions and boasts a sparkling 30-4 TD to INT mark. WR Q Johnston is one of the most explosive WRs around and RB K Miller has been a beast (1,342, 6.2, 17 TD). TCU is #2 in the Big 12 in 20+ yard plays and Michigan ranks #3 in the Big Ten in 20+ yard plays allowed and the ultimate outcome in this game will likely be based upon TCU’s ability to generate a handful of chunk plays. It’s gonna be very difficult to grind out drives vs a defense that ranks #3 in the nation in total defense and #3 in scoring defense. Michigan is tied for the lead in the Big Ten in sacks (36) and Kansas St was able to harass Duggan quite a bit in the Big 12 title match even tho they only sacked him once.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh is 1-5 in bowl games with Michigan and they’ve lost the last three by a combined total of 110-42……Sonny Dykes is 1-3 in bowl action over his career as a HC…..TCU last appeared in a bowl game back in 2018 when they took down California in the Cheez-It Bowl (W 10-7)….Michigan has outscored their opponents 521-174 (40.1-13.4)…..TCU has outgunned their opposition 524-325……TCU has played the #13 schedule according to Sagarin….Michigan #54.

Summary

TCU has played in nine games decided by ten points or less and they’ve proven to be a resilient bunch. Michigan hasn’t played too many offenses in the same area code as TCU and that makes us think that the Horned Frogs can get into the low 20s at at minimum. Michigan shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball on the ground or thru the air when they want to. LIGHT DUSTING on the total for us.

Conclusion

Lean – Over 58

Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.