2021 Frisco Bowl – North Texas vs Boise St
posted December 15
The Game
It’s time to get NASTY down in Frisco with a Mountain West vs Conference USA match-up. The Broncos fell to a feisty Fresno St squad in the conference title game and have to be smarting after that disappointing result. North Texas also lost in their conference championship tilt and will be playing with an interim HC after shitcanning your boy Seth Littrell.
The Details
Boise St -11 North Texas (59)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Boise St -12
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Boise St 35 North Texas 24
Boise St offense vs North Texas defense
The Broncos started to come alive on offense down the stretch behind QB Taylen Green but he’s still struggling with the THROW GAME as evidenced during the loss to Fresno St (13-6 TD to INT on the season). The good news is that North Texas doesn’t play much defense (#124 total defense) and their #107 run defense is gonna have major problems with RB G Holani (1,133, 10 TD) and friends. The Broncos’ WR group is mediocre and banged up (a bad combo, yo) so there’s hope for the Mean Green if they can limit explosive runs.
North Texas offense vs Boise St defense
The Mean Green are up against a stout defense (#6 FBS total D, #24 run D, #5 pass efficiency D) but the Broncos played in a surprisingly soft Mountain West conference and North Texas is a balanced and dangerous bunch (#24 rush, #36 pass). QB A Aune isn’t the most consistent dood around but is good enough to conjure up some big plays fairly regularly (57%, 32-13 TD to INT). FUN FACT – Boise St is #1 (!) in the FBS in terms of 10+ yard passing plays allowed so it’ll be interesting to see what North Texas can do thru the air. The RB group is deep and they have a good OL so we expect them to have a bit of luck on the ground.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
North Texas will be coached by DC Phil Bennett in this game…….The Mean Green are an impossible 2-10 (!) in bowl action and haven’t pulled off a postseason win since New Year’s Day 2014 when they slayed UNLV in the Heart of Dallas Bowl…..Boise St has had two of their last three bowl dates canceled and last tasted bowl victory in 2017 when they beat Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Summary
Boise St is clearly the better team but how motivated can they be playing a C-USA team with an interim HC? Oh ya, in the Frisco Bowl too. We still prefer the favorite but the Mean Green are a capable offensive squad. Tough call at this market price.
Conclusion
No leanage.
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.