2022 Gasparilla Bowl – Missouri vs Wake Forest
posted December 20
The Game
Nothing says “Gasparilla” like an SEC/ACC match-up, buh buh.
The Demon Deacons were a disappointment during ACC play (3-5) but they still managed to find a way to bag seven wins. Wake Forest took down Florida St on the road in the first half of the campaign but lost four of their final five games. Mizzzoorah won their final two games to become bowl eligible and the season finale was a two-point win over a solid WOO PIG squad.
Which conference will stand tall after this game?
The Details
Wake Forest -1 Missouri (60)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Wake Forest -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Wake Forest 30.5 Missouri 29.5
Wake Forest offense vs Missouri defense
The DEACS rode the arm of star QB Sam Hartman (#10 FBS passing offense) and he had another fine season under center (35-11 TD to INT, 63%, 8.7 YPA). The rushing attack was a bit lackluster (#92) and they averaged their fewest YPG (133) since 2015 (105) when they finished 3-9. Most of the key offensive weaponry will be playing in this game including leading rusher J Ellison (643, 5 TD) and their top-two WRs A.T. Perry and D Greene who’ve combined to catch 17 TD passes so far. The Tigers have been stingy on defense (#30 FBS total defense, 337 YPG) but they’ve got several key doods missing for this game. Those bodies include their pair of starting DEs and their excellent starting safety M Manuel. Note that those three players were the top THREE sack producers during the regular season (16.5 combined).
Missouri offense vs Wake Forest defense
The Tigers were inconsistent for a good chunk of the season (#11 SEC total defense) and they only scored 30+ games vs two FBS opponents (La Tech, New Mexico St). Wake Forest has one of the worst pass defenses in the ACC (#107 FBS pass efficiency D) but the Tigers don’t do a lot of damage thru the air (#91 passing offense). Also note that Mizzzoorah will be without their top playmaker WR D Lovett (846, 15.1, 3 TD) who’s hit the transfer portal. Cody Schrader is an underrated RB and QB Brady Cook has good mobility but the DEACS have been decent vs the run (138 YPG, #45). We don’t expect the Tigers to have many splash plays on offense and they’ll have to find a way to keep the chains moving.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Wake Forest is #99 in time of possession….Mizzzoorah is #7…..The Tigers haven’t tasted bowl victory since the 2014 Citrus Bowl and have lost three straight postseason affairs……Wake Forest HC Dave Clawson is 4-2 in bowl games with Wake Forest…..QB Sam Hartman is tied with former Clemson standout Tajh Boyd for the most TD passes in ACC history (107).
Summary
We lean with the Demon Deacons in this one as they have the much stronger offense and the Tigers are missing a lot of key pieces on defense. We also believe that Wake has the coaching advantage. The total is hard to gauge as it’s hard to know how much to downgrade Mizzzoorah on defense.
Conclusion
Lean – Wake Forest -1
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.