2022 Hawaii Bowl – San Diego St vs MTSU
posted December 20
The Game
Don’t miss out on some sweet Christmas Eve bowl action as a pair of seven-win teams do battle in the Hawaii Bowl! San Diego St wasn’t a threat in the Mountain West this year but they won five of their final seven contests and come into this BAD BOY in pretty good form. MTSU is always happy to get to a bowl game, and even better, they managed to take down YOUR Miami Hurricanes in September, and that was definitely a signature win for the program. Can they pull the upset in Hawaii?
The Details
San Diego St -7 MTSU (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – San Diego St -6.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: San Diego St 28 MTSU 21
San Diego St offense vs MTSU defense
The Aztecs have been pretty gross on offense this year (#117 total offense, #109 passing) but they’ve been improved since J Mayden took over at QB. He’s a very mobile dood but still unpolished as a passer (63%, 10-7 TD to INT). MTSU is pretty stout vs the run (#26) but they’ve been cooked thru the air vs good passing teams. Thankfully for them, the Aztecs have a weak THROW GAME and the Blue Raiders will try and get PENETRATION (#1 C-USA sacks, 34) and force San Diego St into mistakes. MTSU forced 25 turnovers during the regular season (#2 C-USA) and the Aztecs were sloppy with the football at times. Note that San Diego St doesn’t have a player with over 400 rushing yards or 600 receiving yards. They did, however, manage to put up 28+ in three of their final five games.
MTSU offense vs San Diego St defense
San Diego St didn’t have the BEAST of a defense that you normally see from these guys but they were decent enough (#28 total D, #36 run D). They showed some vulnerability vs the pass at times this year when facing offenses with a pulse and the Blue Raiders can move the ball thru the air (#31). They only have one real stud at WR (J Lane – 829, 4 TD) but QB C Cunningham does a decent job of spreading the ball around and they’ve shown the ability to be explosive at times. RB F Peasant has booked 747 rushing yards but we don’t expect MTSU to do much on the ground
Trends, Intangibles and More!
MTSU didn’t take down a single bowl team all year….SD St defeated Toledo and San Jose St…..HC Brady Hoke is 2-0 in bowl games with the Aztecs and won a game in Hawaii LY during the regular season….MTSU HC R Stockstill is 3-6 in bowl games and that includes a loss in the 2016 HAWAII BOWL as seven-point favs……These two teams have combined to hit 29/35 FG attempts so there shouldn’t be many points left on the board…..We’ve seen very little transfer portal and quitting news out of these two camps but keep your eyes open for late-breaking news as we approach kickoff.
Summary
We hate to be the bearer of BAD TIDINGS but this is a tough call at this market price. We prefer the favorite in this spot but the line has gotta a wee bit high for our tastes. MTSU does a few things well enough (run D, pass rush, force turnovers) that they could hang around in this one, especially if the Aztecs are a bit flat.
Maybe the total is worth a LIGHT DUSTING? The Aztecs aren’t a brick wall on the back end and note that 10/12 MTSU games have hit 50+ points. HO HO HO, let’s goooo!
Conclusion
Lean – Over 49
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.