2022 Music City Bowl – Iowa vs Kentucky

2022 Music City Bowl – Iowa vs Kentucky

posted December 16

The Game

“Here we go again. Again.” <Tugg Speedman, Scorcher VI: Global Meltdown>

It’s time for another Iowa vs Kentucky SNOT BUBBLER as these teams hook up in the Music City Bowl in Nashville on New Year’s Eve! Last year these squads treated us to a decent 20-17 affair in the Citrus Bowl eventually won by Kentucky and we expect another close game this year. Iowa started to get hot at the end of the season and won four straight games before they SHAT the bed vs CORN and blew a chance to go to the Big Ten Championship Game. Kentucky started out 4-0 but only managed to win three of their final eight games. Who comes out on top this year?

The Details

Iowa -2.5 Kentucky (31.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Iowa -1.5

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Iowa 17 Kentucky 14.5

Iowa offense vs Kentucky defense

Imagine the worst offense you’ve ever seen. And then imagine something 46 times worse than that. Yup, that’s your 2022 Iowa offense. As you are know doubt aware by now, the Hawkeyes rely heavily on defense, special teams, and waiting for their opponent to screw up. They’re ranked #130 (!) in total offense, #122 on the ground, and #123 thru the air. Kentucky plays solid D (#18 FBS) but they’ve given up some yards to opposing rushing attacks this season (147 YPG, #60) so it’s likely that Iowa will find some success with the run game at times. #1 RB Kaleb Johnson is a decent weapon as is TE Sam LaPorta and that’s about it. Iowa has a brutal 6-7 (!) TD to INT mark and we don’t see them doing much of anything with the THROW GAME, particularly since they’ll be rolling with FRESH MEAT at QB in Joey Lebas.

Kentucky offense vs Iowa defense

Kentucky was a major disappointment on offense this season and managed to average just a measly 22 PPG which was dead last in the SEC (17.5 in SEC action, 2nd last). They had what people are telling us is the greatest QB of all-time in Will Levis (19-10 TD to INT) but he’s quit as has their best skill position player RB C Rodriguez (904, 6 TD), and #2 RB K Smoke. Back-up QB K Sheron showed flashes in limited action but it appears as tho something called a Destin Wade will get his first career start. It’s possible that Wade has a bit of success with a somewhat underrated group of WRs but we shall see. Our primary concern for Kentucky is PENETRATION as the Cats have allowed an impossible 43 sacks (#124) and there’s no doubt that Iowa will figure out a way to get consistent heat on the QB. The Hawkeyes are #4 in the country in total D, #13 vs the run, and #7 in pass efficiency D.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Kentucky HC Mark Stoops has done a good job in bowl games winning 4/6 including last year’s aforementioned victory over Iowa……Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz is 9-9 in bowl games and 10-5 ATS L15……Both teams played comparable schedules…..Iowa #32…..Kentucky #34.

Summary

We expect both defenses to dominate but the total is ridiculously low. Yet, it makes sense at the same time. Weird. It’s anyone’s guess how the offenses perform given that each squad will have a brand new starter at QB. Feels like as close to as toss-up as one could find, yo.

Conclusion

No leanage.


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.