2022 Sugar Bowl – Kansas St vs Alabama
posted December 30
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE! This promises to be a entertaining Sugar Bowl as ROLL TIDE battles the Big 12 champs from Kansas St down in New Orleans. It’s strange to see Alabama outside of the playoff but they came REALLY close to making it once again. They sit at 10-2 and recall that their two losses were excruciating last-second defeats (Vols, LSU) by a combined four points. Kansas St took down previously undefeated TCU in a wild Big 12 overtime title bout (W 31-28) and have to be full of confidence heading into this showdown. Let’s do ittttttt !
The Details
ROLL TIDE -6.5 Kansas St (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – ROLL TIDE -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 31.5 Kansas St 25
ROLL TIDE offense vs Kansas St defense
QB B Young didn’t have the stats that you would expect from one of the best players in college football (3,007, 64%, 27-5 TD to INT) but he wasn’t at 100% health for a good chunk of the season and he’s certainly not had a collection of stars to work with at WR. Young should be close to perfect health for this BAD BOY and we think he’ll be able to distribute the ball effectively to the WR/TE/RB weapons. RB J Gibbs is a lethal dual threat (850, 6.3, 7 TD rush, 42 receptions) and we expect him to be the primary weapon in this game. Kansas St has been solid in terms of defending the pass (#16 FBS pass efficiency defense) but they’ve displayed a bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run (149 YPG, #64) and they come into this one after getting rolled for 218 yards on the ground against TCU (5.9). Texas rushed for 269 and the Sooners rushed for 220 vs the Cats. That tells us that ROLL TIDE will be able to do good things by moving the ball on the ground and throwing the ball on their terms.
Kansas St offense vs ROLL TIDE defense
Could it be that QB W Howard is a legit star? He took over the starting gig from an injured A Martinez and has looked really good (62%, 15-2 TD to INT, 3 rush TD) in leading the team to the Big 12 title. The straw that stirs the drink is the amazing RB D Vaughn who’s one of the most exciting players in college football (1,425 rush, 42 receptions) and he’s the key to victory in this game for Kansas St. ROLL TIDE has been solid, but not the usual BRICK WALL vs the run (125 YPG, #33 FBS) and it seems reasonable for the Wildcats to have some success running the ball. The question then becomes, can Howard do enough damage thru the air to keep Kansas St in the game? The WR/TE group is a bit underrated in our mind and it looks as tho #1 WR M Knowles will be good to go. ROLL TIDE has been really good vs the pass tho (#7 FBS pass efficiency D) and all of their key pieces will be starting vs Kansas St. They’ve only allowed 12 TD passes all year and have yielded a mere 5.6 YPA (#3 FBS).
Trends, Intangibles and More!
HC Nick Saban is 15-6 in bowl games with ROLL TIDE…..They were on a four-game HEEETER in bowls/CFP games before losing to Georgia for all the marbles in 2021…..Kansas St is 1-1 in bowl action under HC Chris Klieman…..Kansas St has played the #5 schedule according to Sagarin…..Alabama #31.
Summary
Kansas St took down TCU for the Big 12 title but they were outgained significantly in that event. Their next best win? Texas Tech? Kansas? ROLL TIDE appears to be motivated and we love the fact that they don’t have a single quitter on the roster. All of their stars are going to play and that’s why you’ve seen the line creep up from the -3/-3.5 range to the current market price. The Cats are a legit team but this is a major step up in class and we foresee a 7-14 point win for ROLL TIDE.
Conclusion
Official play – Alabama -6.5 -108 <sent 11:35am Dec 30>
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.