2022 Texas Bowl – Ole Miss vs Texas Tech
posted December 28
The Game
We’ve got some SWEET Big 12 vs SEC ACTION to look forward to on Wednesday night as Ole Miss and Texas Tech go head-to-head in the Texas Bowl. The Red Raiders finished 4th (!) in the Big 12 (5-4) and that has to be considered a yuuuge success for first year HC Joey McGuire. The Rebels began the season on SUPAH HOT FIRE (7-0) but faded down the stretch when the schedule got a lot tougher. Ole Miss rolls into town on a three-game skid and would love to get that bad taste out of their collective mouths. Let’s do itttttt !
The Details
Ole Miss -3.5 Texas Tech (71.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ole Miss -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ole Miss 37.5 Texas Tech 34
Ole Miss offense vs Texas Tech defense
The Rebels have moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on the ground this year (262 YPG, #3 FBS), particularly against the soft defenses on their schedule. OH LOOK! What do we have here? Why it’s the Texas Tech run D that’s ranked #89 in the FBS as we approach press time, and that was mostly WITH a few of the pieces that they’ll be missing in this game. The Rebels’ 1-2 punch of Q Judkins and Z Evans has combined for an impossible 2,375 yards and 24 TDs on the ground and QB J Dart has chipped in with 548 yards. Dart is still a bit of a work-in-progress in terms of the THROW GAME (18-8 TD to INT, 63%) but he’s got a fine big play duo at WR in M Heath and J Mingo to utilize when he sees fit. We don’t expect the Red Raiders to put up much resistance so they’ll have to find a way to force a turnover or two AND be solid on 4th down. Yup, you can be assured that our pal Lane Kiffin won’t be punting unless it’s absolutely necessary. And even then……
Texas Tech offense vs Ole Miss defense
The Red Raiders have been ok on the ground (#67 FBS) behind the duo of S Thompson and T Brooks (1,271, 12 TD) but they’ve done most of their damage thru the air (#12). The problem for Texas Tech has been the mistakes (25-17 TD to INT) (!) and it hasn’t helped that they’ve had to use three QBs, all of whom have logged 138+ attempts. T Shough will get the start and he just might be their best option at the position. The Red Raiders spread the ball around well with the air assault and note that 12 players had double-digit receptions during the regular season and 13 doods caught a TD pass. The WR room is deep and we expect them to have some success vs Ole Miss who’s defense is pretty sketchy. Hopefully, they can keep the mistakes to a minimum and keep the Rebels potent offense off the field as much as possible (Texas Tech #77 TOP, Ole Miss #126). One potential trouble area is an OL that’s last in the Big 12 in sacks allowed (39) whilst the Rebels are #4 in the SEC with 34 sacks.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Texas Tech is 15-23-1 in bowl action but they SHOCKED the WORLD in last year’s Liberty Bowl by blowing out Mississippi St as double-digit underdogs (W 34-7)…..The LANE TRAIN is 2-3 in bowl games (1-1 with Ole Miss)……Texas Tech has turned the ball over 22 times (#109 FBS)….Ole Miss ranks #44 in that regard.
Summary
We prefer the team with the devastating rushing attack to find a way to cover the number.
Conclusion
Lean – Ole Miss -3.5
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.