2023 Arizona Bowl – Toledo vs Wyoming
posted December 29
The Game
We venture down to the desert to take in some SWEET MAC vs MOUNTAIN WEST ACTION as the Toledo Rockets hook up with the Wyoming Cowboys in the Arizona Bowl. Toledo (11-2) had another outstanding regular season but they they were STYMIED in the MAC Championship Game by the BRICK WALL DEFENSE headquartered in Oxford, Ohio. Wyoming (8-4) overachieved like they’ve done seemingly every year since the invention of the STEAM ENGINE but they fell out of the competitive Mountain West race after losing three conference games in a four-week span.
The Details
Wyoming -3.5 Toledo (44.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Wyoming -5.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Wyoming 24 Toledo 20.5
Wyoming offense vs Toledo defense
The Pokes have been grinding it out as per usual on offense and they’ve got a solid rushing attack (158 YPG, #65 FBS) that’ll test a Toledo run defense (147 YPG, #56) that hasn’t faced many rough and tough ground games whilst playing in the MAC. RB Harrison Waylee is a legit #1 option (856, 5.9, 5 TD) and QB Andrew Peasley is a very productive runner that will surprise you with his speed (403, 7 TD). Peasley has done much better than we expected in the THROW GAME (20-5 TD to INT) despite having a very underwhelming collection of WR/TEs. Toledo is very strong on the back end but they’d definitely miss star CB Quinyon Mitchell if he decides to quit before the game like so many other guys because “he loves his teammates so much and they’ll be brothers forever”.
Toledo offense vs Wyoming defense
The Rockets have been really good on offense this year (#12 rush, #66 pass) but they’ve been SMOKED by of key transfers/quitters/opt-outs in preparation for this bowl game. Starting QB Dequan Finn was one of the best players in the MAC (22-9 TD to INT; 563 rush, 7 TD) but he’s off to Baylor. Backup QB Tucker Gleason isn’t CHOPPED LIVER but he’s only thrown 21 passes this season and he’s nowhere near the running threat of Finn. Oh ya, Toledo will also be without (we assume) star RB Peny Boone who was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year (transfer portal). Wyoming’s stop unit hasn’t been as stout as most of the recent editions but they still finished #3 in the Mountain West in rushing defense and #2 in pass efficiency defense.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The YUUUUGE motivational edge should be with Wyoming as legendary HC Craig Bohl will be leading the troops for the final time in his illustrious career…..He’s 3-2 SU in bowl games and there’s no doubt that the team will be ALL-IN to try and send him off with a win….Toledo HC Jason Candle is 2-4 SU in bowl action but he snapped a 3-game losing streak last year when the Rockets slithered past Liberty in the Boca Raton Bowl……Toledo has played a soft schedule (#130 per Sagarin ratings) whilst Wyoming has had the burden of the #74 docket.
Summary
Wyoming is really tough to beat when they can run their preferred style of offense and we don’t expect the Rockets to put up any unusual resistance. This is a prime theoretical “A+” motivational spot for Wyoming given the departure of their beloved HC combined with Toledo’s disappointment in falling short of the MAC Championship with a loaded roster.
Conclusion
Official play – Wyoming -3 -125 <sent 5:25pm Dec 29>
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.