2023 Fenway Bowl – SMU vs Boston College
posted December 17
The Game
Grab your pals SULLY and WHITEY and head to Fenway Park for some WICKID HARRD college football action as the SMU Mustangs battle the Boston College Eagles. The Mustangs took down mighty Tulane in the AAC Championship Game (W 26-14) and they did it with their backup QB. They’ve already booked 11 wins and they’ll be looking to put another NOTCH IN THE BEDPOST after this game. Boston College showed promise at times this year but they were absolutely ravaged by injuries and sit with a mark of 6-6.
The Details
SMU -11 Boston College (51)
MEGALOCKS LINE – SMU -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: SMU 31 Boston College 20
SMU offense vs Boston College defense
The Mustangs rode the arm of QB Preston Stone (28-6 TD to INT) for almost the entirety of the year until he was hurt early in the regular season finale vs Navy. They still managed to beat Tulane for all the AAC marbles with Kevin Jennings at the helm but he’s much more of a threat with his legs right now than with his arm. They’ve still got a diverse set of WR/TE weaponry and note that eight (!) players have between 319 and 518 receiving yards which makes their THROW GAME very tough to defend. They’ve got a three-headed monster at RB (Knighton, Johnson, Wheaton) that’s combined for 15 rushing TDs and we expect them to get a lot of work in this game. The Boston College defense is a shell of it’s early season self thanks to injuries and they were pulverized down the stretch by opposing ground games. YOUR Hurricanes rushed for 242, Pitt got them for 197, and the resurgent Hokies bulldozed their way for an impossible 361 yards on the ground. They also have trouble covering people given the missing pieces on the back end so SMU should have a good day on offense.
Boston College offense vs SMU defense
QB Thomas Castellanos has been a lot of fun to watch this season and he almost engineered an upset of mighty Florida St. Castellanos has put up some fine dual-threat numbers (15 TD passes, 957 rush, 11 TD) but he makes a few too many mistakes (13 INT), AND most importantly, players are DROPPING LIKE FLIES all around him making him a one-man show. We believe that RB Kye Robichaux will play in this one (691, 7 TD) but they’ve got very limited options at WR/TE and SMU has one of the most underrated stop units in the nation (#11 total defense, #18 run D, #13 pass efficiency D). Castellanos is a very tough player to keep under wraps but SMU should be able to contain the offense effectively given the options that he has at his disposal.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The obvious thing to note in this section are the weather-related issues that could pop up by the time late December rolls around. Thanks to “climate change” ** the long-range forecast doesn’t look too bad as we approach press time in terms of temperature but who knows how windy it will be and/or if we get some rain/snow?……As crazy as it sounds this could be a bit of a letdown spot for SMU coming off a title game win and they were hoping for a much bigger bowl prize…..With the game being in Boston you would like to think that the Eagles would have a home-field advantage but there might only be 190 people in the stands.
** keep eating bug sandwiches and wear your mask to save the planet
Summary
The Eagles are gonna have trouble scoring and the weather will (hopefully) help SMU from going bananas with their backup QB.
Conclusion
Lean – under 51
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.