2023 Hawaii Bowl – Coastal Carolina vs San Jose St
posted December 12
The Game
The San Jose Spartans have a chance to get revenge on the COMPUTER MODELS ** that left them out of the Mountain West Championship Game. They were arguably the best team in the conference down the stretch but unfortunately we got to see UNLV get their teeth kicked in by Boise St in the game for all the marbles. The Spartans roll into paradise riding a six-game winning streak, and whilst it’s fair to say that they didn’t beat many good teams during that epic HEATER, they did manage to take down Fresno St and UNLV. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina had a shot to win the FUN BELT East but they were POLEAXED by James Madison in the final game of the regular season (L 56-14). The Chanticleers come into this one with a mark of 7-5.
Let’s gooo!
** the same models that once told us that Florida would be completely underwater by 2020 due to “climate change”
The Details
San Jose St -10 Coastal Carolina (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – San Jose St -8
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: San Jose St 32 Coastal Carolina 22
San Jose St offense vs Coastal Carolina defense
San Jose St is led by QB Chevan Cordeiro who’s been one of the best players in the Mountain West over the past two years (42-10 TD to INT, 12 rush TD) and he’ll have all of his key weaponry available for this game other than stud TE Dominick Mazotti who’s hit the transfer portal. The Spartans also have a fantastic 1-2 punch at RB led by Kairee Robinson (1,127, 18 TD) and their offense is gonna provide a lot of problems for the Coastal Carolina defense. The Chanticleers rank #97 in defending the run so we expect San Jose St to be able to get sizeable chunks on the ground and then do some good work thru the air. Coastal has only booked 20 sacks all season (dead last Sun Belt) so it’s quite likely that Cordeiro has a fine day at the office.
Coastal Carolina offense vs San Jose St defense
The CHANTS did a decent job during the regular season despite having to deal with three QBs that were all injured at some point in time (#69 rush, #32 pass) but they’ll be down to their 3rd string QB Ethan Vasko for this game. Vasko has been average thru the air (4-1 TD to INT, 63%, 6.5 YPA) but his real strength is mobility and the ability to keep the chains moving with his legs (318 rush, 6.9, long 75). Vasko was injured in the season finale vs James Madison (upper body injury) but he should be 100% for the bowl game. RB CJ Beasley won’t be competing in this game but Coastal has a deep set of RBs and they’ll be able to do damage vs the weak San Jose St run defense (173 YPG, #102 FBS). #2 WR Jared Brown is off the squad but thankfully #1 WR Sam Pinckney will give it a go (904, 7 TD) and he’s one of the best wideouts in the Sun Belt. The Spartans do a better job vs the THROW GAME although they don’t get a ton of pressure on the QB (23 sacks, #8 Sun Belt). We give the Chanticleers a reasonable chance of getting into the 20s.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
San Jose St HC Brent Brennan is 0-2 in bowl games with the Spartans and the last time San Jose St won a bowl game was back in 2015 when they struck down Georgia St in the Cure Bowl (W 27-16)….Coastal Carolina is 1-2 in bowl action and this will be HC Tim Beck’s first kick at the cat given that this is his debut season as HC……..San Jose St has played the #71 rated schedule whilst Coastal has dealt with #92….Both of these teams feature disgusting special teams….Phil Steele has the Spartans group rated at #108 and Coastal Carolina’s at a filthy #126.
Summary
San Jose St games (vs FBS foes) are 8-3 to the over 54 this season. The totals in Coastal Carolina bowl games have been 82/88/71. Their last four game totals during the regular season were 52/54/49/70. Both defenses are suspect. The Spartans can SCORE the FOOTBALL. We’ll take a stab at the ‘over’. If you’re worried about Coastal Carolina scoring enough points to contribute to the total then you can always roll with the San Jose St team total ‘over’ as a substitute.
Conclusion
Lean – Over 54
We may have a game prop/player prop or two for this game. We’ll post something here before game day.
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.