2023 Orange Bowl – Georgia vs Florida St
posted December 22
The Game
We’ve got a pair teams that just missed out on the College Football Playoff competing in the Orange Bowl as the Georgia Bulldogs tangle with the Florida St Seminoles. Georgia (12-1) rolled into the SEC Championship Game as the #1 team in the nation but were upset by ROLL TIDE (L 27-24) and found themselves on the outside looking in. Florida St (13-0) rattled off an undefeated regular season and then took down LUA-VUH in the ACC Championship Game with their 3rd string QB. Sadly, they also found themselves without a playoff spot and hope to take out their frustrations on the mighty Bulldogs.
The Details
Georgia -14.5 Florida St (44.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia -14
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia 29.5 Florida St 15
Georgia offense vs Florida St defense
We’re just over a week out from game day as we approach press time and there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding who’ll be playing on offense for the Bulldogs. QB Carson Beck will probably be at the controls (22-6 TD to INT) but we’re skeptical if two of his most lethal THROW GAME weapons will be participating in All-Universe TE Brock Bowers and WR Ladd McConkey. Beck has been very impressive this season and we expect him to play well in this game but it’ll be challenging going up against a Florida St defense that looked really good down the stretch, especially on the DL. Star pass rusher Jared Verse won’t be playing for the Seminoles but their stop unit looks relatively intact and it’ll help if some key players on Georgia’s OL eventually quit/opt-out.
Florida St offense vs Georgia defense
It hasn’t been pretty but the Seminoles have managed to keep winning with star QB Jordan Travis out of the lineup. They only managed to score 24 vs the Gators and 16 vs the Cardinals in their final two contests but that was enough to GIT ER DONE. Backup QB Tate Rodemaker is the likely starter for this one and he’s been decent enough in limited snaps (57%, 5-0 TD to INT). Rodemaker doesn’t provide anywhere close to the elusiveness and rushing ability of Travis so it’ll be tough sledding on offense, particularly given that they’ll be without their two star WRs (Coleman, Wilson) and stud TE Jaheim Bell. Oh ya, and they’ll also be missing #1 RB Trey Benson. Georgia will be without a lot of regulars on the defensive side of the ball but you know they’ve got depth on that roster. We’d be concerned if Georgia was facing the “A” offense but that won’t be the case in this game.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Florida St HC Mike Norvell is 1-3 SU in bowl games but he’s 1-0 with the Seminoles after sliding past Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl last year (W 35-32)…..Georgia HC Kirby Smart is 8-2 in bowl action and the last time he lost one came back in the 2018 Sugar Bowl…..where interestingly…..the Bulldogs lost as double-digit favorites to the Texas Longhorns (L 28-21)….Georgia has played the #48 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings whilst Florida St has navigated the #61 docket…..Both squads have special teams units rated in the top-30 according to Phil Steele.
Summary
It’s tough to get a read on this BAD BOY. Will Georgia have the intensity to beat a very good team by a wide margin after losing out on the CFP? Will Florida St stop feeling sorry for themselves long enough to play four more solid quarters of football? We prefer the favorite based on how decimated the Florida St offense is right now BUT there’s still plenty of time for Georgia players to announce that they’re skipping the game. We haven’t gotten to the window yet. .
Conclusion
No leanage
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.