2023 Peach Bowl – Ole Miss vs Penn St
posted December 29
The Game
Yes, guy.
This is one of the premier match-ups of the bowl season as the FIGHTING LANE KIFFINS battle with the mighty Penn St Nittany Lions in the Peach Bowl. The Rebels roll into town with a record of 10-2 and their only losses came at the hands of ROLL TIDE and Georgia. They don’t exactly have a collection of solid wins on the resume but it’s never easy to bag double-digit wins when you inhabit the SEC West. Penn St (10-2) did what Penn St does. They essentially destroyed all the crappy teams they faced and then lost the two games that mattered (Michigan, Ohio St). This will be their third “real” game of the season. Let’s goooo!
The Details
Penn St -5 Ole Miss (50.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Penn St -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Penn St 27.75 Ole Miss 22.75
Penn St offense vs Ole Miss defense
The Nittany Lions have been plodding along all year (#87 FBS total offense, #63 scoring offense) and they do their best work on the ground behind the RB duo of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton who’ve combined for over 1,500 yards and 14 TDs on the ground. Those guys average 5.3 and 4.3 YPC respectively but they haven’t been as deadly as they were in 2022 (5.2, 6.8). QB Drew Allar has an outstanding 23-1 TD to INT mark but he’s only booked 61% completions and does a poor job of pushing the ball down the field (6.7 YPA). The WR/TE group is something that the Rebels should be able to handle but Penn St is a patient group that doesn’t make many mistakes. Ole Miss has been average on defense this year (#71 run D, #43 pass efficiency D) but they’ve only allowed more than 24 points on three occasions (Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M). The Rebels will be without their excellent EDGE Cedric Johnson in this game.
Ole Miss offense vs Penn St defense
The Rebels have a dangerous and balanced offense (#38 rush, #25 pass) behind the stellar play of dual-threat QB Jaxson Dart who also takes good care of the football (20-5 TD to INT), and unlike Drew Allar, Dart can get things done with his legs (377, 7 TD). Ole Miss also boasts a 1,000-yard RB in Quinshon Judkins but he’s been a bit of a disappointment this season after posting a yuuuuuge 2022 campaign. Penn St will have to deal with the best set of THROW GAME weaponry that they’ve seen all year as Ole Miss boasts several legit WRs and a fine pass-catching TE in Caden Prieskorn. Penn St’s defense has been elite this season (#1 FBS total defense, #1 run defense) (!) and the major handicapping puzzle to try and figure out is how they’ll fare vs the best offense they’ve faced this season. Penn St will be without their DC Manny Diaz (off to Duke) and star DE Chop Robinson.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin is just 2-4 in bowl action (1-2 with Ole Miss)…….Penn St HC James Franklin is 4-4 in bowl games with Penn St including last year’s win over Utah in the Rose Bowl……Penn St has played the #44 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings….Ole Miss #48…..The Peach Bowl features a fast track that should be a bit of advantage for Ole Miss but it’s never easy to predict those kinds of things.
Summary
We think the Rebels can make this a game but they haven’t looked good at times vs the better stop units they’ve faced. We still think they can score some points on this defense who isn’t used to seeing this kind of firepower. Penn St has allowed 28/27/39/24/21 in their L5 bowl games. It won’t help that Penn St is missing their best defensive player and their DC.
Conclusion
Lean – Ole Miss team total over 22.75
Note: We’ve seen 22.5 to 23 out there; more options will open up later today and tomorrow; The line is moving in favor of Penn St so you should be able to snag a number no worse than 23; shop around, yo.
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.