Boca Raton Bowl – WKU vs James Madison
posted December 11
updated December 17
The Game
Let’s head down to paradise in the GREAT STATE OF FLORIDA for some midweek bowl action as James Madison tangles with Western Kentucky. The Dukes (8-4) were in the middle of the battle for the Sun Belt East division but dropped their last two regular season games including the finale to the eventual conference champs from WE ARE Marshall. The Hilltoppers battled hard to get into the CUSA Championship Game but they were EVISCERATED by Jacksonville St (L 52-12).
The Details
James Madison -8.5 WKU (52.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – James Madison -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: James Madison 30.5 WKU 22
James Madison offense vs WKU defense
The Dukes finished the regular season ranked #30 in the nation in rushing offense and #34 in pass efficiency thanks to the stellar play of QB Alonza Barnett (26-4 TD to INT). Unfortunately for James Madison, Barnett will miss this game due to injury, as will backup QB Dylan Morris. The Dukes will roll with something called Billy Atkins under center for this game but whilst he only threw one pass this season it’s important to note that he’s been with the program since 2021 and has been the backup the last few weeks as Morris was recovering from surgery. We also may get a peek at true freshman QB JC Evans who brings size and mobility to the table. In any event, the THROW GAME won’t work as well as it did with Barnett but the Dukes still have a nice stable of WR/TE options. The ground attack should COOK behind the running of George Pettaway (876, 5.9, 5 TD), Wayne Knight (427, 6.5, 2 TD), and Jobi Malary because the Toppers have one of the worst run defenses in the country (222 YPG, #130) and they might be missing several key pieces in the front seven for this affair thanks to the transfer portal **.
** NOTE – Players that enter the transfer portal may still end up playing in the bowl game. It’s a crazy moving target that makes bowl game handicapping very challenging.
WKU offense vs James Madison defense
There’s big news to digest for Western Kentucky as starting QB Caden Veltkamp (23-10 TD to INT) has entered the transfer portal and it’s unclear as we approach press time whether or not he will play in this game. They’re already without backup TJ Finley (portal) and nobody else threw a pass this year other than a RB and a WR. WKU has two fine WRs but one of them is in the portal (Easton Messer) and that would be a big loss should he decide to quit. RB Elijah Young has done his best to balance out the offense (846, 4.5, 3 TD) but the Toppers have struggled on the ground all season (#109 rush offense). The Dukes have a very solid stop unit and they’re particularly stingy vs the pass (#33 run D, #6 pass efficiency D) allowing just 54% completions and 6.1 YPA. They’ve also picked off 17 passes (#4 FBS) so it’ll be tough sledding for whomever shows up at QB for WKU.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
James Madison played in their first bowl game LY and fell to Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl so we’re confident that you’ll see a max effort in this BAD BOY as they try and make program history with a bowl victory….WKU HC Tyson Helton has been very good in bowl games (4-1 SU) and who can forget last year’s miracle comeback win over Old Dominion in the Famous Toastery Bowl? **……James Madison is #1 (!) in the nation in turnover margin (+17) whilst the Toppers are ranked #68 (-1)……JMU leads the Sun Belt in sacks (38)…Both teams have similar strength of schedule rankings according to the Sagarin methodology…..WKU (#118)….JMU (#117).
** Fact check: Yup, that’s the name of the bowl game.
Summary
We prefer James Madison in this contest as they’ve got the better roster with the ability to run the football and slow down the Toppers’ THROW GAME. The line has been trickling higher this morning so it might be that well-informed MOBSTERS received word on who may or may not play for WKU. We’re gonna give it a bit more time and if the line goes much higher we’ll just have to take a pass.
Conclusion
Holding pattern as per above. Stay tuned!
UPDATE – No leanage
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.