Frisco Bowl – Memphis vs West Virginia
posted December 10
The Game
We’ll get treated to an intriguing early bowl season matchup down in Frisco, Texas as the 10-2 Memphis Tigers battle the West Virginia Mountaineers (6-6). Memphis was one of the clear favorites before the season to make the CFP out of the Group of Five programs but they dropped a pair of games along the way (Navy, UTSA) which sealed their fate. They finished the regular season strong by smoking Tulane (!) on their home field and have now won 10+ games in back-to-back campaigns for the first time in program history. West Virginia had a disappointing season considering the talent available on the roster and they were destroyed in two of their final three games. The Mountaineers also tossed HC Neal Brown to the curb and it’ll be OC Chad Scott’s job to motivate the troops and coax a winning effort.
The Details
Memphis -2.5 West Virginia (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Memphis -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Memphis 29.5 West Virginia 27
Memphis offense vs West Virginia defense
The Tigers bring a balanced attack into this game (#51 rush, #24 pass) and they’ve put up 500 yards of offense in three of their last six games. QB Seth Henigan has had a fantastic career with Memphis (13,984 career passing yards; FOUR 3,000-yard seasons) and he’ll be playing in his final college football game just 20 miles away from where he went to high school **. Henigan has a deep and talented collection of THROW GAME weaponry at his disposal including stud WR Roc Taylor and the elusive and speedy WR DeMeer Blankumsee. The ground game has been ROLLING recently (three consecutive games with 200+ rushing yards; 5L6G) thanks to the outstanding play of RB Mario Williams Jr. (1,292, 17 TD) who’s booked five 100-yard games in the last six contests. West Virginia’s defense has been a GREASE FIRE down the stretch and they finished the regular season ranked #104 in total defense and #124 in pass efficiency D. The Mountaineers were decent vs the run for a while but they’ve struggled in that regard over the last month of the campaign (6.4, 5.2, 5.4 YPC L3G). West Virginia doesn’t have much of a pass rush and star LB Josiah Stewart (#2 in tackles, Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year) has entered the transfer portal.
** Trivia BOMBS, yo.
West Virginia offense vs Memphis defense
The Mountaineers have done a good job on the ground (#27 FBS rush offense) thanks to the 1-2 RB combo of Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson, not to mention the mobility of QB Garrett Greene (656, 5.2, 5 TD). Memphis has been very stout vs the run (#10 run D) and they’ve held each of their L5 opponents to 121 yards or less on the ground. We expect West Virginia to have some success on the ground as it’s extremely difficult to completely shut down the QB/RB combo but the Mountaineers will have to try and do some damage thru the air if they wanna keep up in this contest. West Virginia hasn’t been efficient throwing the football this season (#83 pass efficiency) and their two QBs have a combined 18-13 TD to INT mark. The WR/TE group isn’t very imposing but the good news for West Virginia is that Memphis gets TORCHED regularly thru the air (#113 passing yards allowed; but #54 in pass efficiency D).
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Former HC Neal Brown was 5-1 in bowl games over his career with Troy and West Virginia and now they’ll be rolling with an interim HC…..Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield is 3-1 in bowl action and that includes a SHOCK the WORLD upset of Iowa St in last year’s Liberty Bowl (W 36-26)……West Virginia has played the much tougher schedule (#30 per the Sagarin ratings) but they’re 0-6 (!) vs bowl teams and 6-0 (!) vs turds…….Memphis has navigated the #107 docket whilst posting victories over bowl teams Tulane, South Florida, and North Texas…..The winning HC will get doused with ICE COLD COFFEE after the game in honor of the game sponsor and that’s always a sight to behold…..Memphis has outscored the opposition 422-273, WV has been outscored 373-342.
Summary
We’ll roll with the better team who’s a lot more intact heading into bowl season. Memphis should be plenty motivated to bag another win over a Big 12 school as “statements” like that can never hurt when the inevitable conference realignment discussion pops up again. One LAST RIDE for the senior-laden Memphis Tigers. Let’s do itttttttt.
Conclusion
Lean – Memphis -2.5
Posted 11:50am Dec 10
-2.5 is consensus. There are some -3s out there and we don’t see the -2.5s lasting until gameday UNLESS there are some unexpected departures from the Memphis roster. It’s always a bit of a CRAPSHOOT during bowl season so buyer beware!
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