Gasparilla Bowl – Tulane vs Florida
posted December 11
updated December 17 (see below)
The Game
ARRRRRRRRRRRRRR……It’s time to fetch the PIRATE GEAR and celebrate the real (or fictitious…nobody really knows) life of the ARRRRRRRRRRRR fearsome pirate Jose Gaspar as the Tulane Green Wave and Florida Gators do battle down in Tampa, Florida. The Green Wave (9-4) were moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE for most of season until they tripped up in a quasi-meaningless game vs Memphis and then followed that up with a blowout loss to Army in the AAC Championship Game. The Gators (7-5) played one of the most difficult schedules in the country (see below) and still managed to win seven games and compete impressively vs a slate of difficult opposition.
The Details
Florida -13 Tulane (51)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida 32 Tulane 19
Florida offense vs Tulane defense
The Gators had their ups and downs during the season on offense (#75 FBS rush, #78 pass) as they transitioned from Graham Mertz over to the PRODIGY DJ Lagway (59%, 11-7 TD to INT, 10.3 YPA). Lagway has a LASER ROCKET ARM that helps the offense stretch the field and he’s got a pair of fine WR targets in Elijhah Badger (789, 21.3) and Chimere Dike (687, 19.1). They’ve also got a three-headed monster at RB (Baugh/Johnson/Jackson) that ensure there are always fresh legs running the football. Tulane’s stop unit has been impressive this season (#13 total defense, #53 run D, #16 pass efficiency D) but they didn’t look that sharp in their final two games vs Memphis and Army, particularly when it came to stopping the run. Florida will have success in this game on offense but it’ll be interesting to see if any key pieces decide to skip the bowl game. It’s pretty quiet on that front as we approach press time but you never know.
Tulane offense vs Florida defense
Tulane got some disappointing news recently as their talented young QB Darian Mensah (22-6 TD to INT) decided to transfer to Duke. The Wave will be ROLLING with backup Ty Thompson at the controls and whilst he’s only thrown 11 passes this season he’s a talented specimen (via Oregon) that’s familiar with the offense. Thompson also has the ability to do damage with his legs (243, 6 TD) and that’ll be something the Gators’ defense will have control. Star RB Makhi Hughes (1,372, 15 TD) appears to be a “go” for this game and we give Tulane a good shot to have a productive day on the ground vs the occasionally SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Gators stop unit (#80 run D). It’ll be interesting to see how much success Tulane has thru the air as they’ve got a talented bunch of WRs including Mario Williams (940, 5 TD) but they’ll have a new trigger man for this event. The Green Wave have done a good job in pass protection this year (17 sacks, #29) but the Gators have been getting to the QB on a regular basis (19 sacks L3G, 39 on the year).
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The Gators did a great job this year considering the schedule they had to deal with (#5) but it’s worth noting that they were significantly outgained in 4L5G with the only exception being the regular season finale vs Florida St…..Tulane played the #76 schedule and had four wins over bowl teams….They also gave Oklahoma (A) and Kansas St (H) a run for their money early in the year…..Tulane just signed HC Jon Sumrall to an extension and we believe he’ll want to end the season on a strong note and head into 2025 with some momentum after how horrible they looked in their final two contests…..Tulane is #6 in time of possession (Florida #116) so look for the Green Wave to slow things down and try and play “keep away” from the Gators.
Summary
This is an interesting game as we think both teams will be motivated to give a good effort. The current spread seems to have fully baked in Tulane’s QB situation and they should have a fairly complete roster otherwise. It also appears that the Gators should have a good turnout although the injury bug has hit them fairly hard. We’ll let this one simmer for a bit and see if we can’t get a +13.5 or +14 closer to gameday.
Conclusion
Holding pattern as per above.
Update Dec 17, 12:15pm
Lean – Tulane +14 -115
+14 -115 is consensus. You can still find +14 -110, but at the same time, +13.5s are starting to emerge. There’s even one +13 out there so shop around.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.