LA Bowl – UNLV vs California
posted December 10
updated December 12 (see below)
The Game
Welcome to the communist hellscape of Los Angeles! Yes, you can harvest all the HUMAN FECES your heart desires by merely taking a stroll down any random street. Violent crime and disease-ridden communities are encouraged so feel free to embrace all the human suffering that Los Angeles has to offer before heading to the game! We’re also happy to inform you that this event is no longer sponsored by scumbag late night TV hosts. This year’s extravaganza is hosted by a former NFL star who’s probably drunk in a hot tub right now with your wife, three mature female bison, and a leprechaun. What a time to be alive!
The UNLV Rebels (10-3) have disposed of all challengers other than Boise St (two losses) and Syracuse (lost by 3 in OT). Motivation could be a question in this game for UNLV as they had a shot to make the CFP (!) with a win over Boise St in the Mountain West title game but they came up short. Oh, and their head coach just left for Purdue. Meanwhile, the Golden Bears finished the regular season at 6-6 in their first year in the ACC. They had a number of close losses, but as we note down below, they didn’t defeat anyone with a pulse.
The Details
California -4 UNLV (51.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – California -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: California 27.75 UNLV 23.75
California offense vs UNLV defense
UPDATE – Cal QB Fernando Mendoza has hit the transfer portal and it appears he’ll be quitting and skipping the game.
The Golden Bears did almost all of their meaningful work during the regular season thru the air (#27 passing offense) behind the arm of QB Fernando Mendoza (3,004, 16-6 TD to INT) and a diverse (but not elite) set of WR/TE weaponry. The major issue with the Golden Bears team this season was a lack of a rushing attack (#108). California only managed to exceed 120 rushing yards vs TWO opponents all season and despite a good year from RB Jaivian Thomas, there’s no debate that RB Jayden Ott was a yuuuge disappointment (301, 2.9 YPC). And let’s not talk about the pass protection. Ok, maybe we will. Cal has allowed an impossible 45 sacks (#130 FBS) and the Rebels have a pass rush that needs to be addressed (36 sacks, #13). UNLV has played sound defense all year (#17 run D, #32 pass efficiency D) so it’ll be interesting to see how much success the Golden Bears have on offense.
UNLV offense vs California defense
UNLV has been one of the best rushing teams in the nation this year (251 YPG, #5 FBS) but they’ve had a difficult time getting things done with the THROW GAME vs the good teams on their schedule (#121 passing offense, <200 yards passing each of L3G). QB Hajj-Malik Williams has been an excellent dual-threat specimen for the Rebels (17-5 TD to INT, 824 rush, 9 TD) but he hasn’t made things happen vs tougher opposition. The Golden Bears have been rock solid on defense (#16 run D, #24 pass efficiency D) and they’re going to make things difficult for the Rebels on offense. UNLV’s only true weapon at WR is the great Ricky White (1,041, 11 TD) but he’s been slightly invisible in big games and who knows if he decides to leave college football early to “prepare for the NFL Draft” and skip this annoying bowl game.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The Golden Bears are 0-5 (!) vs bowl teams although they’ve had a few close shaves including one vs YOUR Miami Hurricanes….UNLV is 2-3 vs bowl squads with wins coming over San Jose St and Fresno St…..California’s last winning season came back in 2019 before the PLANDEMIC so you’d like to think that they’ve got a bit of motivation to finish the season on a positive note…..UNLV has the #1 (!!) special teams unit according to the intrepid Phil Steele…..California clocks in at #30…..UNLV dealt with the #72 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings…..The Golden Bears had the #63 docket.
Summary
We prefer the Golden Bears in this game given all the turmoil in the UNLV camp but even after all of our adjustments, and consulting the Federal governments in both the USA and Canada begging for tactics to safely and effectively lie about the numbers, we could only get to California -3. We’ll monitor the “quitting” situation for UNLV and only consider a play on California if UNLV’s roster carnage gets worse.
Conclusion
No leanage (see above).
UPDATE – No leanage.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.