New Orleans Bowl – Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston
posted December 12
The Game
It’s time to travel down to THE BIG EASY and take in the 2024 New Orleans Bowl, bay-bee!
The Sam Houston Bearkats (9-3) carried their momentum from the end of the 2023 season into the current campaign and came agonizingly close to making the CUSA Championship Game in year two (!) as an FBS program. Ace HC K.C. Keeler is off to coach the <HOOT HOOT> Temple Owls and it’ll be up to OC Brad Cornelson to try and lead the Bearkats to the first bowl win in program history. Georgia Southern (8-4) played well down the stretch winning three of their last four games and just missed out on winning the Sun Belt East division.
Let’s gooooooooo!
The Details
Georgia Southern -6 Sam Houston (49)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia Southern -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia Southern 27.5 Sam Houston 21.5
NOTE – Sam Houston has a yuuuge list of players in the transfer portal but the rumor according to our DEEP CUSA INSIDERS is that the majority of them will give it a go in the New Orleans Bowl. Things can change quickly though so buyer beware!
Georgia Southern offense vs Sam Houston defense
The Eagles weren’t nearly as deadly on offense as we hoped this year and they finished the regular season ranked #92 in total offense, #102 on the ground, and #52 thru the air. The offense lacks explosiveness and note that they only hit the 30-point mark in one game after September came to a close. The good news is that they’ve got decent (but not great) weaponry on offense when talking about QB JC French (16-7 TD to INT), RB Jalen White (13 TDs), and a deep WR group that boasts three doods with 500+ receiving yards. The Bearkats have one of the best defenses in the Group of Five (#19 total offense, #56 run D, #10 pass efficiency) and they’ll pose a stiff challenge for the Eagles provided that they don’t end up with a lot of starters quitting on the season.
Sam Houston offense vs Georgia Southern defense
It’s been REALLY ugly down the stretch for the Sam Houston offense as they’ve put up 20/11/23/9/10/14 points in their L6G. The good news is that starting QB Hunter Watson is back and healthy and he’s the STRAW the stirs the DRINK (60%, 11-8 TD to INT, 623 rush, 7 TD). The Bearkats’ offense is essentially Watson and RB Jay Ducker (transfer portal, might play) running the ball (#29 FBS rush offense) combined with a light dusting of passes to the WR group. That’s not overly sexy but thankfully for Sam Houston the Eagles’ defense has been PURE FILTH for the majority of the season (#119 total defense, #103 run D, #83 pass efficiency D). Georgia Southern allowed 441+ yards of offense in 4L5 games and they struggled mightily in the PENETRATION department (17 sacks, #119).
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
As noted earlier, this will be Sam Houston’s first bowl game appearance and they should be adequately motivated…..This is a big game for the program so it might lead to more players participating in this game than you might think but we’ll see what happens…..Georgia Southern HC Clay Helton is 2-5 SU in bowl action and 0-2 with the Eagles after losing in the postseason in each of the L2Y……Sam Houston played the #119 schedule and posted two wins over bowl teams (Texas St, Liberty)……Georgia Southern dealt with the #77 set of assignments and posted four wins over bowl-eligible opposition (Marshall, JMU, South Alabama, Coastal Carolina).
Summary
We prefer Sam Houston in this spot but it’s tough to pull the trigger right now given the uncertainty surrounding who might actually play in the game. As always, we’ll monitor the situation.
Conclusion
No leanage (see above).
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.