Salute to Veterans Bowl – South Alabama vs Western Michigan
posted December 10
updated December 14 below – Taking a pass on this game.
The Game
We’ve some some SWEET MAC vs FUN BELT ACTION to kick off bowl season on Saturday night as Western Michigan heads down to Montgomery, Alabama to face the South Alabama Jaguars. The Broncos (6-6) started out hot in MAC play (4-0) but didn’t play well down the stretch when the competition level increased. They needed a win vs Eastern Michigan in their final regular season game to get to a bowl game. The Jaguars (6-6) were 5-3 in Sun Belt play and they lost to three of the best four conference foes that they faced. The good news is that they had a decent amount of success vs teams in Western Michigan’s weight class so they should feel confident heading into this affair.
NOTE – It’s the time of year when rosters often get depleted rapidly before gameday. We’ll try and post updates in our bowl previews if there are significant departures but it’s very hard to keep track of all the madness.
The Details
South Alabama -8.5 Western Michigan (59)
MEGALOCKS LINE – South Alabama -10
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: South Alabama 33.75 Western Michigan 25.25
South Alabama offense vs Western Michigan defense
The Jags finished the regular season with some decent big picture offensive stats (#27 FBS total offense, #26 rush, #30 pass efficiency) but they were unable to exceed 400Y of offense in any of their L3G, and one of the those contests was vs Southern Miss (1-11). Thankfully, Western Michigan’s stop unit might be the worst of all the bowl teams (#101 total defense, #109 run D, #113 pass efficiency D) and the Jags have a fine QB in dual-threat specimen Gio Lopez (18-5 TD to INT, 465 rush), a great 1-2 punch at RB including the legendary FLUFF Bothwell (834, 7.4), and a devastating #1 WR in Jamaal Pritchett (1,126, 9 TD). One thing to watch as we approach press time is the status of several players ** on the Jaguars including starting QB Gio Lopez who got injured in their final regular season game. He might play. He might transfer. He might quit on the season. Who knows? Backup QB Bishop Davenport has some legit SKILLZ that KILLZ so we’d still consider a play on the Jags if he starts depending on the price.
** Dude. Not this again. ^^
^^ Dude, it’s bowl season.
Update – FLUFF has hit the portal. No word yet on if he’ll play in the game.
Western Michigan offense vs South Alabama defense
The Broncos were doing some fine work on the ground earlier in the season but they’ve been fairly average over the last three games. They don’t have much of a THROW GAME behind QB Hayden Wolff (17-7 TD to INT) and a suspect collection of WR/TEs but they do have a legit three-headed monster at RB (Nixon/Buckley/Abdus-Salaam) who’ve combined for 2,100 yards and 23 (!) TDs on the ground. They should be able to do some work vs the South Alabama run defense (#59 FBS) that’s allowed 200+ yards to four different opponents but we’re concerned about #1 RB Jaden Nixon who was an unstoppable freak at times this year (876, 6.6, 12 TD; Western Michigan via Oklahoma St). Nixon has only rushed for a total of 29 (!) yards over the L3G so he might be a candidate to miss the game due to “injury” or maybe he hits the transfer portal? In our estimation that would be a big missing piece for the Broncos who don’t have an air attack to balance out the offense. South Alabama can be hit thru the air but they’ve also picked off 15 passes (#2 Sun Belt).
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
This BAD BOY used to be called the CAMELLIA BOWL…..MAC teams were 4-4 SU in that event from 2014-2023…..Western Michigan is 2-9 all-time in bowl action and this will be 2nd year HC Lance Taylor’s first postseason appearance….He’s making a return to his home state of Alabama **……The game is being played in Montgomery, ALABAMA which should provide a slight home field edge for the Jaguars even though we know it won’t be close to a full house on gameday……South Alabama HC Major Applewhite is in his first year with the Jags and he’s 0-3 SU in bowl games…..Both teams are 1-4 SU vs bowl-eligible squads…..The Jaguars took down Louisiana whilst the Broncos defeated Buffalo…..South Alabama played the #101 schedule according to the Sagarin ratings and they were +0.92 in YPP….Western Michigan dealt with the #127 docket and were -0.19 in YPP…..The long range forecast is calling for a 40% chance of rain and light winds.
** We deliver continuous trivia bombs, yo.
Summary
We can only back the Jaguars in this spot as they’re the better team who’s got more talent on both sides of the football. Western Michigan can hang around if the ground attack is effective but that might be a challenge.
Conclusion
Holding pattern.
We’re waiting to see how many key players on South Alabama will be missing in action for this tilt.
UPDATE – no leanage
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.