Week 1 (Aug 24) Florida St vs Georgia Tech
posted August 20
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE. It’s game time!
We’ve got a very intriguing match-up to kick off the 2024 season as Florida St and Georgia Tech try and get a leg up in the competitive ACC. The Seminoles ran the table last year (13-0) on their way to an ACC Championship and then got destroyed by Georgia in the Orange Bowl. That was a skeleton roster for Florida St so we don’t put much stock in that performance. The bottom line is that it’s been a long time since anyone has beaten the Seminoles in a non-exhibition game. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a 7-6 season that ended in a 30-17 win over UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl. They SHOCKED the WORLD last year on a pair of occasions taking down North Carolina and YOUR Miami Hurricanes as double-digit underdogs, so you know they’re capable of pulling a big upset.
Who will win the Aer Lingus Classic? Will the stadium be filled with scantily-clad IRISH HOTTIES? Will Declan and Kieran be totally bombed after the first quarter? These are the among the many questions that must be answered.
Let the fun begin in Dublin, Ireland!
The Details
Florida St -11 Georgia Tech (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Florida St -13
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Florida St 33.25 Georgia Tech 22.25
Florida St offense vs Georgia Tech defense
The Seminoles are gonna miss the leadership and ruthless efficiency of former QB Jordan Travis but they picked up a decent replacement thru the portal in former Oregon St/Clemson signal caller DJ Uiagalelei who’s posted a fine 43-14 TD to INT mark over the L2Y. DJU has also rushed for 21 TDs over his four seasons and provides a decent rushing threat for the offense. The RB room looks potent despite the loss of Trey Benson (14 rush TD LY) and the 1-2 punch of ROLL TIDE transfer Roydell Williams and Lawrence Toafili should do serious damage behind an excellent offensive line. And don’t forget that Georgia Tech was PULVERIZED by opposing ground games LY (221 YPG, #131). The Yellow Jackets appear to have added some decent pieces up front, and it won’t hurt to have a new DC, but Florida St should be able to do their thing on the ground and then take some shots in the THROW GAME. The Noles lost their top-three pass catchers from LY’s squad but they’ve still got plenty of talent and speed. Florida St is very likely to get into the 30s and appear poised to exceed their team total if Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t moderately improved in terms of stopping the run. <grabs popcorn>
Georgia Tech offense vs Florida St defense
The Yellow Jackets had one of the most underrated offenses in the country last season as they put up 31 PPG whilst displaying excellent balance (204 YPG rush, 221 YPG pass). QB Haynes King threw a few too many INTs (27-16 TD to INT) but he made a lot of big plays with his arm as well as his legs (737 rush, 10 TD). RB Jamal Haynes is coming off a 1,000-yard season and Georgia Tech has one of the best OLs in the ACC. They also return three of their top-four pass catchers including #1 WR Eric Singleton (714, 14.9, 6 TD) and there’s no doubt they’ll be a stern test for the Seminoles’ stop unit. Florida St had one of the best defenses in the nation LY (#28 total defense, #18 scoring defense, 46 sacks) but they lost FIVE players to the NFL draft on this side of the football. They’re still an extremely talented bunch but it’ll be interesting to see how they fare in their first game without so many of last year’s key contributors. The Noles showed a bit of a SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run LY (152 YPG, #72) and that could spell trouble vs the potent Georgia Tech rushing attack. If they can get things going on the ground that’ll open up opportunities thru the air. Also note that the Yellow Jackets allowed a mere 15 (!) sacks LY and we’re not sure how much heat a semi-neutered Florida St pass rush can get on the QB.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Florida St should be plenty motivated to get back on the field after the 63-3 shellacking at the hands of Georgia in the Orange Bowl…..Seminoles HC Mike Norvell has done very well in the last three season openers….45-24 vs LSU LY, 47-7 vs Duquesne in 2022, 41-38 loss to Notre Dame as seven-point dogs in 2021….Georgia Tech gave LUA-VUH all they could handle in LY’s season opener when they fell by a score of 39-34 as seven-point dogs…..The weather report is promising as we approach press time….Check our weekly weather blog post later in the week to see if things have changed…..Both teams have strong kicking games and we don’t detect a noticeable edge for either squad on special teams.
Summary
This is a REALLY good game for a season opener. Georgia Tech has the ability to SCORE the FOOTBALL and as the legendary Brad Powers might say, you don’t need to be ELON MUSK to figure out that the key to the game is the ability of the Yellow Jackets’ defense to control the Florida St run game. It’s almost that simple. If Florida St can be balanced and keep QB DJU from having to put too much on his shoulders it’ll be tough sledding for the underdog. The line looks about right to us but we’d be tempted to sprinkle on Florida St if the MOB STEAM continues to come in and drive the line down to the -10 range.
Conclusion
No leanage. As per the above, we’ll monitor the line movement during the week and go from there. Our game plan right now is to utilize in-game wagering and look to get either team at a better price depending on who scores first.
If we add a play on this game we’ll advise here by Thursday night.
UPDATE AUG 23 – No play on this game. Will check out some in-game opportunities as noted above.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.