Week 1 (Aug 24) SMU at Nevada
posted August 19
The Game
We get our first look at the BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT that is the SMU Mustangs on opening Saturday night as they travel to Reno to battle the Wolfpack. SMU is coming off a magical AAC Championship campaign and they’ll be competing in the ACC with the likes of Florida St, Clemson, and YOUR Miami Hurricanes this year. Nevada has won just a pair of games in each of the last two seasons and are still in rebuild mode under new HC Jeff Choate.
The Details
SMU -27 Nevada (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – SMU -28
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: SMU 41.75 Nevada 14.75
SMU offense vs Nevada defense
The Mustangs averaged 39 PPG LY (#8 FBS) and they’re able to move the ball on the ground with a devastating set of RBs or thru the air behind star QB Preston Stone (28-6 TD to INT LY). Everyone of consequence is back at WR/TE and it’s also important to note that SMU has a REALLY good backup QB in Kevin Jennings who took over when Stone got hurt late last season. All he did was lead the Mustangs to a conference title. SMU has a ton of depth at the skill positions and they should be able to GO ALL NIGHT LIKE LUMBERJACK against the Nevada defense. The Wolfpack were horrible on defense LY (#120 vs the run, #130 pass efficiency D) and they struggled mightily in the PENETRATION department (17 sacks, #127). There’s no reason to think they’ll be better on defense this season as they didn’t add much thru the portal other than DB Davis Mallinger who ended up getting hit with four felony drug charges over the summer. Needless to say, he won’t be a factor in this game.
Nevada offense vs SMU defense
Nevada was a HOT MESS on offense LY as they averaged a mere 17 PPG (#127) and just 175 YPG thru the air (#113). The QB room is one of the weakest in the nation and it looks like Brendon Lewis is back for more fun in 2024 (56%, 2-6 TD to INT LY). Lewis has good mobility and the Nevada RB corps is decent but it appears to be a BARREN WASTELAND at WR/TE. SMU has a legit top-20 defense and they return their top-seven tacklers and the majority of key contributors from a stop unit that allowed just 18 PPG LY (#11) whilst sacking the QB an impossible 47 times (#2). A few of the best pass rushers from LY are no longer with the team but they’ve still got DE Elijah Roberts (10 sacks in 2023) and recall that Nevada allowed 41 sacks LY (#118). Nevada’s best bet on Saturday will be to focus on the run and see what happens. Maybe they’ll be able to grind out a few drives and make SMU work for the cover? Sadly for Nevada, the Mustangs have a stout run D and they added several talented pieces up front so we don’t think the Pack will have much success in this game.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The weather report appears positive as we approach press time…..Low 50s and clear skies…..SMU Rhett Lashlee has led the team to a pair of blowout opening week wins over TOMATO CANS in each of his first two seasons (38-14 over Louisiana Tech LY, 48-10 over North Texas in 2022) and both of those teams were much better than this Nevada squad…..Lashlee is 5-2 ATS as road chalk but just 3-7 ATS in non-conference games so do with that what you will…..The Wolfpack are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog but that one cover came LY vs Kansas (L 31-24) (!).
Summary
The line has moved quite a bit since the early days of summer but that makes complete sense and we still see enough value in the number to make a play. SMU proved that they could destroy teams like Nevada last season (55-CACK over Temple, 69-10 over Tulsa) and we expect they’ll run their offense for the vast majority of the game and score enough to cover. Nevada will have trouble scoring more than 10 points without the help of turnovers and/or special teams. That’s possible, but not likely.
Conclusion
Lean – SMU -27
(Note: there are still at least two major shops offering -26.5 so shop around. We’ll call it -27 for grading purposes)
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.