Week 1 – Miami at Florida
posted August 29
The Game
This is just one of a MULTITUDE of fantastic match-ups in week one as YOUR Miami Hurricanes travel to THE SWAMP to battle the Florida Gators. Miami spent a lot of money in the offseason to upgrade the roster and appear to be one of the most talented teams in the country. Florida has the most difficult schedule in the history of mankind ** which puts a cap on their realistic goals for the 2024 campaign BUT they’ve got a lot of talent and boast a serious home field advantage.
Let’s do ittttt.
** Fact check: You betcha.
The Details
Miami -2.5 Florida (54)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Miami -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Miami 28.25 Florida 25.75
Miami offense vs Florida defense
Here we go!
The Hurricanes spent money like the LA DODGERS over the offseason and brought in a star QB in Cam Ward (3,732, 25-7 TD to INT; 8 rush TD LY) who provides instant credibility at the position. The word on NARRATIVE STREET is that he makes a lot of mistakes but as evidenced by the TD/INT ratio LY there must be something more to that theory. Indeed there is. Ward has major issues with fumbling the football and you just have to believe that he’ll give it away at least once in this contest. The good news is that he’s very mobile and surrounded with outstanding weaponry. RB Damien Martinez was absolutely DEVASTATING in the PAC 12 and the Canes have one of the deepest RB rooms in the country. The WR/TE group is also fantastic as they’ve got three legit threats (Restrepo, George, Brown) that’ll keep the Gators’ secondary busy. Miami’s OL looks pretty good as well and they’ll be going up against a Gators team that’s booked a pathetic 22/23 sacks over the L2Y. Also note that Florida has allowed 28/29/27/31 PPG over the L4Y so Miami should have a good day on offense.
Florida offense vs Miami defense
Florida QB Graham Mertz did a great job LY and finished the campaign with a sparkling 20-3 TD to INT mark (73%). He’ll certainly miss #1 WR Ricky Pearsall who was drafted in the first round by the 49ers ** but the WR group is still going to cause issues for a Miami secondary that’s certainly their weakest link on paper. The Gators rushing attack is gonna have a hard time getting rolling since Mertz has the mobility of an iceberg and the Canes allowed a mere 106 YPG on the ground LY. Miami should have a yuuuge advantage up front as their DL is one of the most talented (and deepest) in the nation and recall that the Gators allowed 39 sacks in 2023 (#115 FBS, tied with Hawaii, worse than ULM). There’s no doubt that Mertz will make some plays in the THROW GAME but Miami will be able to create significant havoc and negative plays.
** bring your bulletproof vest, yo
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Miami HC Mario Cristobal is 8-17 (!) ATS with Miami but he wasn’t brought to Coral Gables to SPILT THE ATOM…..He got on board to upgrade the talent and there’s no doubt that this is the most talented Miami roster in a long time….Florida HC Billy Napier is 2-2 ATS as a home dog with the Gators and Florida is 6-4 ATS over the L10Y in that point spread role….The weather forecast is STEAMY as you could probably imagine….That gives a theoretical advantage to the Hurricanes who are much deeper at OL and DL.
Summary
Miami has the biggest edge in the game (DL vs Florida OL), a mobile QB, and a deeper roster. ONE TIME AT BAND CAMP STORY TIME will alert you to play Florida because Mario Cristobal coaches in-game like SIMPLE JACK but we think the Hurricanes will be too much for Florida and book a win of three points or more.
Conclusion
Official play – Miami -2.5 -109
Sent Aug 29 5:53pm EST
-2.5 is the prevailing line almost everywhere on Earth.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.