Week 1 – Notre Dame at Texas A&M
posted August 29
The Game
WHOA, NELLIE!
We’ve got a great match-up cooking down in College Station as Texas A&M hosts the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. The Aggies have high hopes coming into 2024 with a new HC in Mike Elko and a somewhat loaded roster. They’re legitimate DARK HORSE contenders in the SEC. Notre Dame enters the year ranked in the Top 10 and this might be the toughest game on the schedule. Lose this BAD BOY and their CFP hopes automatically get a lot more dicey.
Let’s goooooooooooooooooo!
The Details
Texas A&M -3 Notre Dame (46)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Texas A&M -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Texas A&M 24.5 Notre Dame 21.5
Texas A&M offense vs Notre Dame defense
The Aggies were considered in many circles to be HOT TRASH on offense last season but the funny thing is that they put up 33 PPG (!) whilst using multiple QBs due to injuries and coaching stupidity. We’re higher than most on QB Conner Weigman (as long as he’s healthy, yo) and he completed 69% of his passes (8-2 TD to INT) in limited action LY. They’ve got a deep RB group even after the loss of Rueben Owens and the collection of WR/TEs is above-average. The bad news is that they’re facing an elite Notre Dame defense that should easily rank in the Top 10 in the nation in most of key statistical categories when the 2024 season is done and put to bed. Weigman has enough mobility to make things interesting and we believe they’ve got the necessary weapons to be balanced on offense. The Aggies won’t put up oodles of yards so they’ll need to score TDs vs settle for FGs. <grabs popcorn>
Notre Dame offense vs Texas A&M defense
The Fighting Irish are gonna look a lot different on offense as they lose a 1,300-yard RB, their top-two WRs, starting QB Sam Hartman (24-8 TD to INT), and a pair of stud offensive linemen. We’re not worried about the RB room as they’ve got a talented bunch to rely upon and the WR group looks much improved from what we saw in 2023. And don’t forget they still have ace TE Mitchell Evans. QB Riley Leonard was an excellent snag from the transfer portal but note that he was injured for a good chunk of the 2023 season (!) and we haven’t seen him full speed for a full year since 2022. Leonard was outstanding for Duke in that campaign but this is one of the toughest road games he could face for game #1 of the return adventure. The biggest question mark for Notre Dame is the rebuilt offensive line and their ability to hold up vs an elite DL that added 2023 Big Ten sack leader Nic Scourton to the equation. Leonard’s mobility is a definite asset but there’s a chance that the Irish OL has major issues on Saturday.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Texas A&M HC Mike Elko is quite familiar with Riley Leonard having coached him at Duke…..and recall that Elko’s staff faced Notre Dame LY when the Blue Devils almost SHOCKED the WORLD vs the Irish (L 21-14)…..Texas A&M is .500 ATS over the L10Y as a home favorite….Notre Dame HC Marcus Freeman is 3-1 ATS as a road dog but just 5-4 SU in true road games…..Texas A&M was 7-1 SU at home LY with their only loss coming vs ROLL TIDE (L 26-20)….The weather forecast as we approach press time is warm and humid with a 20% chance of a thunderstorm.
Summary
We think the Aggies will emerge victorious but would rather bet on the defense having a good game now that a point spread of -3 is painted all across the globe.
Conclusion
Lean – Notre Dame Team Total under 21.5
Posted 2:30pm Aug 29
21.5 is the clear consensus at shops where team totals are currently available.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.