Week 1 QUICK TAKES (Aug 24 to Sept 2) – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
CARD IS FINAL.
ONE GAME ADDED ON FRIDAY (W MICHIGAN – FRIDAY NIGHT).
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green.
- Colorado St at Texas
- Western Kentucky at ROLL TIDE
- North Carolina at Minnesota (Aug 29)
- UTEP at CORN
- UNLV at Houston
- Penn St at West Virginia
- Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville St (Aug 29) (lean added Aug 23)
- New Mexico at Arizona
- Miami Ohio at Northwestern (lean added Aug 29)
- UCLA at Hawaii
- Old Dominion at South Carolina
- Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt
- FIU at Indiana
- Nevada at Troy
- Georgia St at Georgia Tech
- Southern Miss at Kentucky
- Florida Atlantic at Michigan St (Aug 30)
- Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts
- Kennesaw St at UTSA
- Boise St at Georgia Southern
- Sam Houston at Rice
- Fresno St at Michigan
- Boston College at Florida St (Sept 2)
- Akron at Ohio St
- James Madison at Charlotte
- Temple at Oklahoma (Aug 30)
- Western Michigan at Wisconsin (Aug 30)
- USC vs LSU (Sept 1)
- North Texas at South Alabama
- Kent St at Pittsburgh
- Wyoming at Arizona St
- Ohio at Syracuse
- TCU at Stanford (Aug 30)
- Georgia vs Clemson
- UConn at Maryland
QUICK TAKES
1. Texas -35 Colorado St (59)…………MEGALOCKS line – Texas -37
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 47 Colorado St 12
The Longhorns have CFP aspirations this season and a DEVASTATING offense that will be able to rip apart a porous Colorado St defense that will be without star pass rusher Mohamed Kamara….Texas will also do serious work on the ground even without two of their top-five RBs who are OFY due to injury….The Rams are a one-dimensional offense with an NFL WR and a QB that loves to throw INTs…..Prefer the home team and the ‘over’ but note that Texas has the yuuuge game with Michigan on deck.
No leanage
2. ROLL TIDE -31 Western Kentucky (59.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -32
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 45.25 Western Kentucky 14.25
This is a tough draw in week one for the TOPPERS who’ve struggled as double-digit underdogs under HC Tyson Helton (0-6 ATS)…..WKU has one of the best dual-threat QBs in the G5 in TJ Finley but they’re a one-dimensional outfit which is bad news when facing Alabama….ROLL TIDE is playing their first game under new HC Kalen DeBoer and they’ve got a star QB and excellent OL but a lot of unproven (but talented) specimens at RB/WR/TE…..The line looks about right……Note that DeBoer is 11-1-1 (!) ATS in non-conference action and that Alabama whipped MTSU (56-7) and Utah St (55-CACK) in their last two season openers.
No leanage
3. Minnesota -2.5 North Carolina (50.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 26.5 North Carolina 24
This is a game that features a pair of teams we believe are both better than what the market anticipates…..That makes it a tough game to call and the spread is also close to our projections…..Minnesota should be able to work the ground game but they’ve got an FCS transfer (albeit, talented) at QB and a downgrade at DC given the departure of Joe Rossi to Michigan St…..UNC ended LY on a three-game skid including the bowl game but they’ve got one of the best RBs in the nation in Omarion Hampton and a solid QB in Max Johnson…We also expect the defense to be improved under new DC Geoff Collins and they’ve got some talented doods back for duty…..Minnesota will be looking to exact revenge after losing at UNC LY…..Challenging call at this price point and a yuuuge game for both teams.
No leanage
4. CORN -27.5 UTEP (48.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – CORN -29
Vegas Implied Score – CORN 38 UTEP 10.5
Nebraska will get off to a good start this season and the only question is whether or not they can cover the big number…..UTEP is 23-28-2 ATS as a road dog over the L10Y and they’re 1-10 ATS L11 vs the old ‘Power 5 ‘ of which Nebraska is one….There’s a glimmer of hope tho for the Miners as they’ve begun an interesting rebuild project with new HC Scotty Walden who’s promising a much more interesting offense and note that he brought over a ton of players with him from Austin Peay……CORN has the yuuuge game with Colorado on deck, will be playing without their projected starting LT, and will be starting a true freshman QB….Dylan Raiola is very talented but it’s tough to know what to expect in game #1….CORN HC Matt Rhule is 13-16 ATS as a home fav….2-3 with the Huskers in that role in 2023…..Prefer the home favorite but there’s a lot of uncertainty on both sides.
No leanage
5. Houston -1.5 UNLV (54.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Houston -1
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 28 UNLV 26.5
This looks like a complete tossup to both our BIG 12 INSIDERS and MOUNTAIN WEST DEEP INSIDERS but the total looks a bit low….Houston has a veteran dual-threat QB in Donovan Smith who did some damage with the Coogs LY (22 pass TD, 6 rush) and he’s very capable of producing points for both teams (13 INT LY)…..Houston has some talented weapons and they’re reloading on defense…..UNLV proved they could SCORE the FOOTBALL on the regular LY and they’ve got a deep RB group and a superstar WR in Ricky White (1,483, 8 TD)…..They’ll be rolling with a new QB and they’ve got a pair of very talented dual-threat FCS transfers ready to show what they can do….Matthew Sluka should get the start and he’s got SKILLZ that KILLZ…..UNLV allowed 29 PPG LY but they might be a bit better this season…..At least one team should get into the 30s and let’s hope that both of them turn the trick…..Point spread players take note that UNLV is on a 13-0 ATS run in non-conference away games.
Lean – Over 54.5
Posted 8:33am EST Aug 20
(Note – There are a few rogue 54s out there, also a few 55s, so shop around)
6. Penn St -10 West Virginia (51.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -11
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 30.75 West Virginia 20.75
This is one of most interesting games on the August 31 card….Penn St appears to have a DATE WITH DESTINY and a CFP berth….The D is STACKED with talent and they’ve got one of the best RB rooms in the country….QB Drew Allar gets more criticism than he deserves from ADVANCED METRICS GUY and he’s coming off a 25-2 TD to INT performance in 2023…..West Virginia also has an excellent RB room and a better OL (at least on paper for week 1) and some underrated WR/TE weaponry….QB Garrett Greene is a great runner and efficient passer (16-4 TD to INT LY) but can he make enough throws to keep the game competitive once the rushing attack hits the Penn St brick wall?…..Penn St allowed just 76 YPG on the ground LY (#1 FBS)….The Mountaineers’ stop unit is the decent but we worry about the sack production and the loss of star DB Beanie Bishop…..Penn St got a late TD to cover in last year’s meeting (W 38-15) but they dominated overall (478-308 yardage edge)…..HC James Franklin is one of the best BULLIES around in terms of covering the spread when favored….He’s 19-12 ATS in the role of road chalk with Penn St and the intrepid Ralph Michaels informs us that he’s 54-27 ATS (!) (66%) as a favorite of 7+ points over his career with Penn St and Vanderbilt and 18-2-1 ATS L3Y as a favorite of 24 or less.
WAITING for now. Prefer Penn St at -10. Will wait and see if -9.5 pops up over the next few days. If the line goes up, oh well, we’ll take a pass. STAY TUNED!
UPDATE……..
Speak of the DEVIL and he shall appear. MOB STEAM just hit the Mountaineers. Plenty of 8.5s and 9s out there now. Circa is even showing a -8.
Lean – Penn St -8.5
Posted 12:22pm EST Aug 20
7. Jacksonville St -3.5 Coastal Carolina (56)……….MEGALOCKS line – Jacksonville St -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Jacksonville St 29.75 Coastal Carolina 26.25
The line looks about right but we lean to the home favorite provided we can get a ‘flat 3’ at some point…..The Gamecocks are gonna have a lethal rushing attack yet again this season (237 YPG, #3 FBS LY!) and they were devastating at home LY in their first season of FBS football (6-1 SU, 3-0 ATS as home chalk)…..Coastal Carolina is a bit of a mystery item and even tho they were 9-4 ATS LY in the first year of the Tim Beck regime we still give the coaching and rushing attack edge to Jacksonville St….Coastal Carolina will have a good defense but they appear to lack PENETRATORS that can cause havoc and we don’t love their big play ability at RB/WR.
Waiting for now. Prefer Jacksonville St but we’ll wait to see if -3 pops up. Stay tuned!
UPDATE AUG 23 3:10pm
Lean: Jacksonville St -2.5
8. Arizona -30 New Mexico (54.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Arizona -30
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona 42.25 New Mexico 12.25
Not a game we’re interested in from an investment standpoint as the spread looks to be DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE ** and the Wildcats have a new HC in Brent Brennan…..New Mexico has been PURE FILTH for a number of years but we like the hire of HC Bronco Mendenhall and they’ve got an exciting young QB in Devon Dampier…..NOTE that the Lobos play on Aug 24 vs FCS power Montana St (11-point dog right now).
** an industry term per the classic movie ‘My Cousin Vinny’
No leanage
9. Northwestern -4 Miami Ohio (43)……….MEGALOCKS line – Northwestern -5
Vegas Implied Score – Northwestern 23.5 Miami Ohio 19.5
Northwestern SHOCKED the WORLD last year when they finished 8-5 with a weak roster and without their HC who was fired in the midst of hazing allegations **. They’ve got a sketchy QB situation but we still like the defense….NOTE they’ll be playing this one at a small on-campus stadium right by the lake….It’s unclear what that means for home field advantage but it’ll be important to watch the weather reports closely when they’re playing at this venue…..Miami Ohio rolls in off a MAC Championship and they’ve got their star QB back for what seems like his 8th season…..They’re the class of the MAC on paper but we’d want 7+ to jump in the pool
** Ok. Ok. So some freshmen were chopped up and fed to arctic foxes? Kids will be kids!
No leanage
UPDATE AUG 29 6:22pm
Lean: Northwestern -3
10. UCLA -13 Hawaii (55.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – UCLA -12
Vegas Implied Score – UCLA 34.25 Hawaii 21.25
There’s not a lot of theoretical line value with Hawaii on this BAD BOY but we’re negative on UCLA this season and positive on Hawaii….The Bruins have lost a ton of production on the defensive side of the football and have an INCOMPREHENSIBLE downgrade in the coaching ranks…….Hawaii has a legit QB in Brayden Schager and a loaded WR corps that should score enough to stay within double digits….NOTE that #1 WR Steven McBride (1,024, 9 TD LY) is suspended for Hawaii’s Aug 24 game vs Delaware St but we anticipate that he’ll return for this one…..If you want to play along we suggest you get down now because it’s more likely that the number goes down vs up….Hawaii is a 40-point favorite over Delaware St in game #1 and if they crush and kill as anticipated you may see the line trickle down just a bit……UCLA is 52-67-1 ATS over the L10Y (44%)….Hawaii should be live for a backdoor cover should the Bruins get off to a good start…..Throw throw and throw BAY-BEE.
Lean – Hawaii +13
Posted 3:15pm EST Aug 20
(Note – you can probably find a +13.5 if you shop around)
11. South Carolina -20.5 Old Dominion (53.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -23.5
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 37 Old Dominion 16.5
We’re not high on South CACKALACKY this season but we’re REALLY skeptical of the Monarchs’ prospects for success this year…..The COCKS have Kentucky up next but they’ve handled early season lookahead spots very well in each of the three years of the Shane Beamer regime (W 47-21 over Furman LY (cover) before Georgia, W 35-14 before WOO PIG (cover) in 2022, won 20-17 (cover) in 2021 over East Carolina in 2021…..Their rushing attack should steamroll the Old Dominion defense given the running ability of QB LaNorris Sellers (or Robby Ashford) and note that they added RB ROCKET Sanders from WOO PIG…..South Carolina’s defense returns eight starters and look to be an improved unit…..We’re not sure about what Old Dominion features at RB/WR but we’re fairly certain it’s not good…..It’s worth noting that ODU is 10-7 ATS as a road dog under HC Ricky Rahne but they failed to cover in each of their last two road openers vs better competition (Va Tech, EC).
Lean – South Carolina -20.5
Posted 6:55 EST Aug 20
12. Virginia Tech -13.5 Vanderbilt (50.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 32 Vanderbilt 18.5
Like many others around the globe we’re very high on the Hokies this year….They’re loaded on both sides of the ball and return a ton of production from LY’s squad….Recall that the offense finished the 2023 campaign on quite the HEATER (41/55/28/48 L4G) and the Commodores have allowed 36/36/36/37 PPG L4Y….Vanderbilt has added several intriguing transfers including former New Mexico St QB Diego Pavia who dominated CUSA LY (26 TD passes, 925 rush and 7 TD) and they’ve got a decent DL…..Not sure what kind of improvement to expect right out of the gate from the Commodores…..Neither team is in a point spread role that they cherish…..VT is 10-17 ATS as road chalk L10Y…..Vanderbilt 4-15 (!) ATS at home under HC Clark Lea who may be WALKING THE PLANK after this season if he can’t coax some better football out of these guys….Prefer the fav but taking a pass for now.
No leanage
13. Indiana -20.5 FIU (51)……….MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -19.5
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 35.75 FIU 15.25
This is a battle of two teams we believe will exceed market expectations in 2024……Indiana has essentially transformed into James Madison (ace HC, lots of transfers) with a former MAC star at QB in Kurtis Rourke ** ….FIU is in year three of the Mike MacIntyre regime and this is his best team yet…..They’ve got some interesting pieces on both sides of the football including sophomore QB Keyone Jenkins who’s an electric specimen….Line looks about right….Interested to see how the new-look Hoosiers fare right out of the gate…..FIU HC MacIntyre is 29-24 ATS all-time in the role of road underdog.
** pride of Oakville, Ontario
No leanage
14. Troy -13.5 Nevada (47)……….MEGALOCKS line – Troy -14
Vegas Implied Score – Troy 30.25 Nevada 16.75
One of the easiest games to pass….Troy is essentially a brand new team with a new HC which makes them tough to gauge coming into week one….GOOSE Crowder is the new starting QB for the Trojans so at least that’s fun….Nevada will be coming in off a game vs SMU on August 24 so expect the line to wiggle a bit depending on how that game goes.
No leanage
15. Georgia Tech -21 Georgia St (57)……….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Tech -21.5
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Tech 39 Georgia St 18
This is another game we’re gonna toss in the trash bin from an investment standpoint…..The line looks fair and Georgia Tech will be coming off their opening week tilt in Dublin vs Florida St…..No matter how that game turns out it’ll be tough to know what to expect after they make the long trip home and face a team with a new HC and starting QB, not to mention a boatload of transfers.
No leanage.
16. Kentucky -28 Southern Miss (50.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -28
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 39.25 Southern Miss 11.25
We prefer the favorite in this match-up but MOB STEAM recently took the number from -26 to -28 so we’ll hold off for now and see if we can bag a 27/27.5 (not likely, but you can dream)…….Kentucky appears to have one of the best stop units in the SEC and a loaded WR corps….The RB group is still unproven and the QB is inexperienced, albeit very talented……Southern Miss has made a yuuuge theoretical upgrade at QB in bagging transfer Tate Rodemaker from Florida St and the defense should be improved….However it won’t be easy to make a road debut vs an fiesty SEC opponent….Kentucky crushed in their L3 season openers and have started the L3 seasons 6-0/4-0/5-0….It’s never easy to lay the big lumber but that’s our preference if the line pulls back a wee bit. Stay tuned!
Holding pattern as noted above.
17. Michigan St -11.5 Florida Atlantic (47.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan St -14
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan St 29.5 Florida Atlantic 18
We’re higher than market on the prospects for the Spartans this season and much lower than market when it comes to the Owls….Michigan St is going to be much better this season under ace HC Jonathan Smith (40-28-1 career ATS) and while we don’t expect miracles in year one we do think they can take care of an average AAC team (at best) who finished 4-8 last year….The Owls are undergoing a yuuuge reload on offense and will feature QB Cam Fancher who’s got a putrid 21-17 career TD to INT mark….We don’t love the skill position talent and the offensive line is one of the biggest question marks heading into 2024….They play decent defense but Sparty has an exciting QB (albeit, inexperienced), a pair of legit #1 RBs in Nathan Carter and Kay’ron Lynch-Adams (1,000 yard season with UMass LY) and an underrated group of WR/TE…..The OL is a work in progress but they’ve got one of the best OL coaches in the business and FAU is a team they can handle…..Michigan St’s defense will be better this year and the Owls are searching for an identity…..FAU HC Tom Herman is 8-3 over his career as a road dog….There’s excitement in East Lansing and whilst we expect them to struggle at times this year we think they get the 2024 season off to a good start.
Official play: Michigan St -11.5
Sent 5:25 EST Aug 23.
-11.5 is widely available and is the prevailing market price. -12s are starting to emerge.
18. Massachusetts -1.5 Eastern Michigan (49.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Massachusetts 25.5 Eastern Michigan 24
Our overall thoughts on this BAD BOY are congruent with those of the legendary Brad Powers…..Yes, it’s a contest that features a pair of teams that are PURE FILTH…..But it should be a very competitive and potentially entertaining game….One which we are looking forward to!…..UMass is in year three of the Don Brown regime (1-11, 3-9) and they’ll be off to the MAC next season **……They lost a 1,000-yard RB but have a decent QB and an upgraded WR/TE group behind last year’s #1 wideout Anthony Simpson….The defense was putrid LY (38 PPG) but they’ve added about a dozen transfers who’ll be mixed in with a few decent players from the 2003 stop unit…..Eastern Michigan has upgraded at QB and the defense (27 PPG) is pretty good….For those looking for betting angles….Eastern Michigan has won this match-up in each of the last three seasons but UMass covered the game on each occasion (+7/+20/+22)…..Eagles’ HC Chris Creighton is an absolute legend when it comes to covering the spread as a road dog (33-16-1, 67%)…..Obvious toss-up but we’ve got the Eagles on our ML underdog short list….Maybe we can squeeze a +110 out of it??….Stay tuned for the Friday afternoon releases in our AWARD-WINNING blog section.
** MACtion + UMass = Heaven
No leanage
19. UTSA -24.5 Kennesaw St (49.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – UTSA -27
Vegas Implied Score – UTSA 37 Kennesaw St 12.5
WELCOME to the SHOW, Kennesaw St!….After finishing 3-6 in the FCS ranks LY and beating JUGGERNAUTS such as Tusculum and Virginia-Lynchburg the Owls have to face one of the best Group of Five teams around in UTSA…..The Owls return everyone at RB and have mobile QBs and we expect them to try and grind this game down to a halt….They only allowed 18 PPG LY but they played one of the weakest schedules imaginable….UTSA outclasses them by a wide margin but they’ll be without their all-time leading passer and they appear much weaker at WR heading into game one…..Also note that UTSA has a yuuuge game with Texas St up next that…..NO JOKE….could have playoff implications….Both the Roadrunners and Texas St are conference contenders and thus in the CFP mix…..Prefer the fav but note that Kennesaw St might be able to drain some serious clock….We’ll know after a drive or two…..Still see some value in the number after the big run up from the -21 range but we’ll pass for now……Might come back to this one if it hits -24.
No leanage
20. Boise St -13 Georgia Southern (57)……….MEGALOCKS line – Boise St -12
Vegas Implied Score – Boise St 35 Georgia Southern 22
Tough game to call as you’ve got one of the best G5 teams in the nation traveling to a potential BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT that’s got a shot to become part of the Sun Belt title conversation…..Boise is loaded on both sides of the football but we still need to see the THROW GAME work a little bit better, they’ve got Oregon on deck, and they allowed 61% completions LY (250 YPG) which could be an issue vs an Eagles squad that loves to throw the ball….Georgia Southern is a much better team at home (9-3 SU under HC, 3-9 SU true road games) and they’ll be working with a new starting QB……The Eagles allowed 41/55/21/38/45 L5 games of 2023….Line looks about right.
No leanage
21. Rice -10 Sam Houston (49)……….MEGALOCKS line – Rice -10
Vegas Implied Score – Rice 29.5 Sam Houston 19.5
We’ve got POSITIVE VIBES about both teams heading into 2024…..Rice is a very experienced bunch with a talented 3,000-yard transfer QB (EJ Warner) and an underrated D…..Sadly, they’re 4-9 ATS as home chalk under HC Mike Bloomgren….Sam Houston started to get results in the 2nd half LY but note that they beat a trio of TOMATO CANS (Kennesaw St, La Tech, MTSU)….We like them as a longshot player in CUSA but they’ll be breaking in a new QB and will be relying upon a lot of transfer talent to GIT R DONE on defense….They only booked 17 sacks LY and allowed 65% completions so that could be a problem vs a QB like Warner….Line looks about right.
No leanage
22. Michigan -21.5 Fresno St (45.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -23
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 33.5 Fresno St 12
Tough game to handicap as the Wolverines are in a tough scheduling spot for a week one game….They’re coming off a National Championship and have mighty Texas on deck…..Oh, and they lost a ton of talent from last year’s squad, their entire starting offensive line, their head coach, and they’ll be working with a new QB…..The Orji/Warren options don’t appear too tantalizing…..Thankfully the defense still looks like one of the best in the country on paper and they’re more than capable of shutting down decent Group of Five opponents…..Fresno’s ace HC Jeff Tedford made a surprise retirement announcement over the offseason and this will be Tim Skipper’s first game leading the Bulldogs…..Fresno is decent on both sides of the ball but we’d want +24 or so to sprinkle on the road dog…..A team total ‘under’ of some kind might make sense….Nothing for now but we’ll wait until the team totals are widely available and see what we think.
Holding pattern as noted above.
23. Florida St -16 Boston College (50)……….MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 33 Boston College 17
WHOA NELLIE…..The Seminoles are in a LIFE AND DEATH situation after losing the opener to Georgia Tech…..They’ve gotta find a way to win this BAD BOY and we perceive some line value with Florida St but they just allowed a mobile QB and potent rushing attack to gouge them for 190 (!) yards on the ground and in comes Boston College with their elite running QB Thomas Castellanos (1,113 rush yds LY) and a pair of fine RBs in Kye Robichaux and Treshaun Ward…..BC lost to Florida St LY but outgained the Noles 457-351 (!)…..Gotta believe will see a peak effort from Florida St but will that be good enough to cover the big number?….Note the line was hammered down from the 21/22 range…..Tidbit for DEGENERATE NATION…..A team playing their first game (BC) has a long-term ATS edge over a team that’s already played a game (Florida St)…..One could surmise that’s telling us having tape on an opponent is much more important than getting lubed up and getting the rust off.
No leanage
24. Ohio St -50 Akron (59)……….MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -48
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 54.5 Akron 4.5
We prefer the road dog in this spot catching FITTTY but we can’t ignore that Ohio St might have the best defense in the entire nation and Akron has performed poorly in blowout spots vs Power 4 teams ever since the 2020 PLANDEMIC season….L 35-3 at Kentucky….52-CACK at Michigan St…..63-6 at Vols…..60-10 at Auburn…..59-7 at Ohio St….0-5 ATS….They’re also rebuilding on the OL but at least the Zips upgraded at QB with the addition of Ben Finley…..Ohio HC Ryan Day is a solid 21-12 ATS as a home favorite (5-1 LY) and we expect Ohio St to run the offense as per usual for the vast majority of the game…..One TD probably gets you the cover if you back Akron…..ARGH…..tempted but will pass for now.
No leanage
25. James Madison -7 Charlotte (48)……….MEGALOCKS line – James Madison -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – James Madison 27.5 Charlotte 20.5
The line on this BAD BOY was double-digits a while back and very recently it hit the -5.5 range……Now it seems to be settling into the -7 range which feels about right…..Really difficult to figure out how James Madison will fare with a new HC and an almost entirely new roster whilst Charlotte has brought in a bunch of transfers and have a new face at QB (Max Brown, via Florida)…..Charlotte has won a mere three games in each of the L2Y but they’ve SHOCKED the WORLD on a few occasions……The 49ers are 14-18-1 as a home dog L10Y.
No leanage
26. Oklahoma -42 Temple (59)……….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -43
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 50.5 Temple 8.5
We’ll do the unthinkable and lay a ton of points as HOOT HOOT is one of the worst teams imaginable on paper…..And things look really ominous when you consider they lost their star QB and will be going up against a very talented Sooners defense….And Oklahoma’s offense will be unstoppable facing a Temple defense with a rebuilt secondary and questionable athletes at several key positions…..As 20+ point road dogs the L2Y Temple lost 41-7, 55-CACK, and 70-13….Oklahoma is 12-6 ATS L18 home openers and they CREMATED a decent Arkansas St team 73-CACK in game one LY.
Lean – Oklahoma -42
Posted 1:55pm EST Aug 27
Split market right now between -42 and -42.5 so shop around.
27. Wisconsin -23.5 Western Michigan (57)……….MEGALOCKS line – Wisconsin -22
Vegas Implied Score – Wisconsin 40.25 Western Michigan 16.75
We prefer the dog in this spot but will wait and see if the 24 that was sitting there since the DAWN OF TIME will come back….PEEK BEHIND THE CURTAIN……We were minutes away from posting a lean at +24 when the screens started lighting up and MOB STEAM took the line from +24 to +23 so we missed out for now….It happens usually once a week and it’s always annoying/comical …..Now back to the game…..We’re very high on Western Michigan’s MAC prospects this season as they’re a very experienced outfit with a good offense and a defense that should improve thanks to the portal and some returning stalwarts….The Badgers bagged a shiny new QB from YOUR Miami Hurricanes in Tyler Van Dyke but he’s got no mobility and a mediocre 54-23 career TD to INT mark…..And we don’t love the RB/WR weaponry…..The defense looks solid and will be tough to navigate for the road team…..Wisconsin 27-35-1 as home chalk L10Y…..Will watch for the +24 to emerge once again and/or may consider some team total action once those are posted and widely available. Stay tuned.
Holding pattern as noted above.
UPDATE
Lean – W Michigan +24
Posted 2:30pm EST Aug 30
NOTE! There are a few +24.5s out there so shop around. We were able to find one pretty easily. Consensus is +24.
28. LSU -4.5 USC (64.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – LSU -5
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 34.5 USC 30
We’ll PEE INTO THE WIND and try an ‘under’ with a pair of teams that had prolific offenses and PURE FILTH stop units in 2023…..LSU will be without 2023 Heisman Trophy winner QB Jayden Daniels and USC will move on from 2022 Heisman Trophy winner QB Caleb Williams…..Big plays will be DOWN for both squads this season…..We also like the fact that both teams made yuuuge upgrades at DC…..LSU has one of the best tackle combos in the country so we expect them to have success on the ground…..Add in the opening week jitters and hitting 65 points seems like a bit of a stretch.
Lean – Under 64.5
Posted 3:45pm EST Aug 27
29. South Alabama -5.5 North Texas (64.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -6
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 35 North Texas 29.5
Hard to feel confident about either team….The Jags lost their starting QB, stud RB, #1 WR, 6T7 tacklers, and their head coach….North Texas has a different QB named Chandler and roll into Mobile with a defense that allowed 37 PPG LY and an impossible 255 YPG on the ground….They’ve brought in a ton of transfers and appear to have reloaded nicely at RB so expect the Mean Green to SCORE the FOOTBALL…..The Jags are 14-5 SU at home L3Y and have an exciting young QB in Gio Lopez….High variance game.
No leanage
30. Pittsburgh -24 Kent St (55.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Pittsburgh -26
Vegas Implied Score – Pittsburgh 39.75 Kent St 15.75
Prefer the home favorite in this tilt but it’s hard to know what to expect as the Panthers transition from “boring at pathetic” to “new and exciting” on offense with a questionable QB room and MEH wide receivers….The stop unit also took a major step back LY and they lost their ace DL coach…..Thankfully they’re up against the lowly Golden Flashes who finished 1-11 LY…..They’re a bit of a mystery item however as we wouldn’t be shocked to see them improve a bit….New starting QB Devin Kargman looked decent in a small sample LY and they’ve got an underrated WR corps…..The defense wasn’t horrible LY (391 YPG) but it’s hard to know how the stop unit will stack up vs the Pitt offense…..Don’t hate the ‘over’, may come back to it. Stay tuned!
Holding pattern as noted above.
31. Arizona St -6.5 Wyoming (47.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -6
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 27 Wyoming 20.5
Wyoming has the edge in the trenches and they should be able to GIT R DONE on the ground despite being without #1 RB Harrison Waylee as they’re always loaded at the position….The Pokes also have a new specimen at QB in Evan Svoboda who’s an upgrade for the THROW GAME but the WR unit looks sketchy….Thankfully they can still play excellent D….Arizona St is still in rebuild mode and they look very weak on offense (other than RB) and the defense adds a boatload of transfers and we’ll see how that pans out….Lean to the road team but Wyoming hasn’t been that great ON THE HIGHWAY over the L10Y (17-39 SU, 1-4 LY)….We’ll wait and see if a +7 pops up and reassess…..The Arizona St team total might also be worth looking at when it becomes available.
Holding pattern as noted above
32. Syracuse -17 Ohio (46)…………MEGALOCKS line – Syracuse -19.5
Vegas Implied Score – Syracuse 31.5 Ohio 14.5
This was a game that made our alarm bells go RINGY DINGY DINGY in the offseason as we’re pretty high vs market on the Orange and note that Ohio is undergoing a yuuuuge reload on both sides of the football….Sadly, the line got smoked from -14 early in the summer…..up to -18ish…..now we have a split market -17/-17.5…..You better sit down for this news because Syracuse actually has a LIVING BREATHING QB who can MATRICULATE the ball down the field in former Ohio St (!) starter Kyle McCord and they’re loaded with weapons at RB/WR/TE…..And the defense is a very underrated group….Ohio lost their top-two RBs, their top-seven (!) pass catchers, and their top-three tacklers so this doesn’t appear to be a great spot for the Bobcats….Syracuse is 17-3 ATS L20 vs MAC teams.
Lean – Syracuse -17
Posted 3:45pm EST Aug 28
33. TCU -9.5 Stanford (60)…………MEGALOCKS line – TCU -8
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 34.75 Stanford 25.25
Tough game to get a handle upon as the HORNY TOADS don’t have the weapons were used to seeing on offense whilst the defense could be pretty good under new DC Andy Avalos….They return quite a bit of defensive production from LY’s squad and they added in a boatload of transfers to the mix….Stanford is in year two of the Troy Taylor regime and whilst we expect improvement and acknowledge the deadly combo of QB Ashton Daniels and WR Elic Ayomanor we also recall that the Cardinal allowed 38 PPG (!) LY….Also note that Stanford was 0-7 (!) SU at home LY and they’re 25-34 ATS L10Y (42%) playing in front of the communist home crowd.
No leanage
34. Georgia -13.5 Clemson (48.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -13
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 31 Clemson 17.5
It just feels wrong to not have an investment on this BAD BOY as it’s between a pair of CFP-worthy teams….Georgia will be plenty motivated after missing out on the playoff LY with an excellent squad and they haven’t lost a regular season game since the SAFE AND EFFECTIVE SEASON of 2020…..We’re not sure if #1 RB Trevor Etienne will be suspended or not and note that #2 Roderick Robinson is out….Ya, they’re DEEP at RB but not Etienne is a legit star….QB Carson Beck is fantastic but he’ll be facing a rock solid Clemson stop unit…..Georgia will also be stout as usual on defense and can we trust your boy QB Cade Klubnik to navigate the Georgia secondary without making a couple of yuuuge mistakes??…..Line looks about right…..Might come back to the total but passing for now.
No leanage. May come back to the total.
35. Maryland -20.5 UConn (44.5)…………MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 32.5 UConn 12
We might as well put our money where our mouth is, yo…..We’re much higher than market on the Huskies’ prospects as they’ve upgraded the talent at WR in a yuuuuge manner and they’ve got a solid 1-2 RB combo (Edwards/Rosa)…..There’s also a much better QB situation as they’ll roll with highly-touted Wisconsin transfer Nick Evers and have Joe Fagnano in the chamber should they need him….He looked decent very early before getting knocked OFY in 2023 due to injury…..The talent is also much improved on the defensive side of the football….On the flipside we’re negative on Maryland as they’ve got one of the biggest QB downgrades in the history of college football and are very suspect on the OL….The Terps also have their Big Ten opener on deck (Michigan St).
Lean – UConn +20.5
Posted 3:15pm EST Aug 29
Note – 20.5 is the market consensus. A few 20s are starting to emerge.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.