Week 2 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
ALL THE GAMES SHOULD BE UP BY AROUND NOON. WE MIGHT ADD PLAYS UP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. WILL ADVISE WHEN DONE.
NOTE – LEAN WAS ADDED IN ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA ST WRITE-UP.
NOTE – ONE PLAY ADDED 4:15pm FRIDAY. WE’RE DONE. ENJOY THE GAMES!
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green.
- Buffalo at Missouri
- UAB at ULM
- Troy at Memphis
- Charlotte at North Carolina
- South Florida at ROLL TIDE
- MTSU at Ole Miss
- Utah St at USC
- San Jose St at Air Force
- Jacksonville St at Louisville
- Duke at Northwestern (Friday)
- Bowling Green at Penn St
- Georgia Tech at Syracuse
- Liberty at New Mexico St
- Louisiana at Kennesaw St
- Michigan St at Maryland
- East Carolina at Old Dominion
- South Alabama at Ohio (added Wed Sept 4)
- UTSA at Texas St
- Temple at Navy
- Georgia Southern at Nevada
- Appalachian St at Clemson
- Tulsa at Arkansas St
- Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
- Marshall at Virginia Tech
- Virginia at Wake Forest
- Houston at Oklahoma
- Mississippi St at Arizona St (added Sept 6)
- Northern Illinois at Notre Dame
- Baylor at Utah
- Akron at Rutgers
- Eastern Michigan at Washington
- Texas Tech at Washington St
- Texas at Michigan
- California at Auburn
- South Carolina at Kentucky
- Boise St at Oregon
- Oregon St at San Diego St
- Central Michigan at FIU
- UMass at Toledo
- Army at Florida Atlantic
- Sam Houston at UCF
- BYU at SMU (Friday)
- Kansas St at Tulane
- Kansas at Illinois
- Colorado at Nebraska
- Iowa St at Iowa
- Western Michigan at Ohio St
QUICK TAKES
1. Missouri -34 Buffalo (51)…………MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -35
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 42.5 Buffalo 8.5
Missouri faces another CUPCAKE in a schedule filled with CUPCAKES and they only have Boston College on deck….Missouri took down FCS turd Murray St by a score of 51-CACK in week 1 and they’ve got one of the best offenses in the country…..Buffalo had a sneaky good outing in week one vs FCS foe Lafayette (W 30-13 as a short fav) and they’ve got emerging studs at RB (J Barksdale) and WR (N McMillan)…..Buffalo HC Pete Lembo is 13-9 ATS as a road dog….Missouri HC Eli Drinkwitz is 4-10-1 ATS (!) as home chalk with the Tigers…..Line looks about right according to our POWER RATING DEPARTMENT.
No leanage
2. UAB -12.5 ULM (55)…………MEGALOCKS line – UAB -13
Vegas Implied Score – UAB 33.75 ULM 21.25
The Blazers’ SEASON OF HOPE (make a bowl game with Trent Dilfer as HC) got off to a good start last week with a pummeling of FCS turd Alcorn St and we like what they’ve got at QB in Jacob Zeno…..The D looked better (37 PPG LY)(!) but you can’t take much away from that week one game…..ULM QB GENERAL BOOTY ** led the Warhawks to a win over something referred to as Jackson St last week (W 30-14 as 5-pt favs) and they’re in rebuild mode (again) under new HC Bryant Vincent…..ULM is 47-68-3 ATS L10Y (41%)….We were hoping for a line of -9.5 or better but here we are…..And now behold some BEHIND THE CURTAIN tidbits you can’t possibly find anywhere else…..ULM Bryant Vincent was the interim HC at UAB back in 2022 and this game is surely circled on the calendar for max effort……Also note that the Warhawks almost beat App St (!) at home last year in a similar sleepy spot (L 41-40 as 13-point dogs)….UAB has WOO PIG on deck, ULM has an early bye week up next…..Might come back to this game if we can get +14. Maybe.
** Fact check: Yup, that’s his name, yo.
No leanage
3. Memphis -17 Troy (57.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Memphis -17
Vegas Implied Score – Memphis 37.25 Troy 20.25
Easy game to throw in the trash bin from an investment standpoint…..We still don’t know what to make of Troy given the completely revamped roster and whilst they lost to Nevada last week those same Wolfpack JUGGERNAUTS almost beat SMU in week zero….We like Memphis quite a bit but the line looks fair and note that HC Ryan Silverfield is just 6-12-1 ATS (33%) as home chalk….Also be aware that the Tigers have the yuuuge game at Florida St next week.
No leanage
4. North Carolina -22 Charlotte (48)……….MEGALOCKS line – North Carolina -23.5
Vegas Implied Score – North Carolina 35 Charlotte 13
Another contest that doesn’t meet the smell test for making our dance card……The linemakers appear to have done a good job and both teams are a bit of a mystery….North Carolina lost starting QB Max Johnson for the season last week and we need to see a bit more out of Conner Harrell before feeling comfortable playing the Tar Heels….Charlotte hung around with James Madison for a while last week but they look like PURE FILTH on offense….We will note however that Charlotte took a ton of money since that game opened up for betting early in the summer (before some JMU buyback) so apparently there are some MOBSTERS with deep pockets that see some upside with the 49ers…..Be advised that Charlotte plays at a slow pace which (in theory) will make it tougher for UNC to cover the big number….Total of 48 isn’t high enough for us to bet the total.
No leanage
5. ROLL TIDE -31 South Florida (63.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – ROLL TIDE -30
Vegas Implied Score – ROLL TIDE 47.25 South Florida 16.25
That’s a lot of points but WHOA, NELLIE the Tide looked very impressive in their opening week CREMATION of Western Kentucky (won 63-CACK)…..They’ve got a bye week up next followed by an interesting trip to Wisconsin……South Florida has one of the most dangerous dual-threat QBs in the nation in Byrum Brown and the Bulls can definitely SCORE the FOOTBALL….It’s just hard to know what they can accomplish on offense on the road in Tuscaloosa.
No leanage
6. Ole Miss -42 MTSU (62.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -39.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 52.25 MTSU 10.25
It was nice for our HEISMAN CLUB members to see QB Jaxson Dart get off to a hot start last week in a 76-CACK (!) bludgeoning of Furman last week….but ya….we suppose it was just Furman…..In any event you know we are high on the Rebels this season and that offense looks fantastic…..The line keeps stretching out and is now in a tough range to play the favorite…..MTSU is bad but they aren’t completely disgusting and might be able to keep this one within 6 TDs…..That’s our best endorsement for the Blue Raiders.
No leanage
7. USC -28 Utah St (62.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – USC -27
Vegas Implied Score – USC 45.25 Utah St 17.25
Yes, guy…..The Trojans SHOCKED the WORLD with a big win over LSU and QB Miller Moss had an excellent game (378 yards, TD) whilst the WR corps showcased some stars in the making…..The tackling was improved on defense but they didn’t register a sack and allowed 421 yards of offense…..Utah St put up over 600Y (!) of offense in their week one win over Robert Morris and note that our boy Bryson Barnes came in of relief of injured starting QB Spencer Petras and he looked great….Barnes even booked a 63 yd TD run…..DEEP IN THE WOODWORK info that you can only find here…..Last season Barnes led Utah to a 34-32 win over…..wait for it….USC in the very same Coliseum he’ll be playing in on Saturday…..Utah St’s defense is gonna get torched but there’s BACKDOOR potential for the road team to cover four TDs…..USC has a bye and then Michigan (!) up next whilst the Aggies have a rivalry game with Utah on deck….Would be tempted to play the Trojans below 27 but here we are.
No leanage
8. Air Force -6.5 San Jose St (46)……….MEGALOCKS line – Air Force -7
Vegas Implied Score – Air Force 26.25 San Jose St 19.75
This is possibly one of the most unpredictable games on the board as the Falcons have one of the least experienced teams in the country and they didn’t look very good in game one vs something called Merrimack (W 21-6, 30 point favs)….San Jose is also very inexperienced and they start a new era in 2024 with one of our favorite coaches Ken Niumatalolo (Navy)….This game is very important as it’s a conference tilt and each team only plays seven of those BAD BOYS.
No leanage
9. Louisville -28 Jacksonville St (58.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – LUA-VUH -26
Vegas Implied Score – LUA-VUH 43.25 Jacksonville St 15.25
This line looks a bit rich at first glance but Jacksonville St was PURE FILTH in their opener vs Coastal Carolina (L 55-27) as they couldn’t run the ball, or stop the run, or stop the pass….Not good….LUA-VUH smashed Austin Peay in their opener (W 62-CACK) and will cruise in this one….We’re just not sure about winning by more than 4 TDs….Keep in mind they have a yuuuge battle with Georgia Tech up next.
No leanage
10. Northwestern -3 Duke (38.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Northwestern 20.75 Duke 17.75
The Blue Devils started the Manny Diaz era with a 26-3 win over FCS scrub Elon which wasn’t a very sexy performance….But new starting QB Malik Murphy looked better than we thought and the Blue Devils booked 8 (!) sacks….The Cats slithered past a scrappy Miami Ohio squad last week……Diaz was 6-1 ATS a road dog with YOUR Miami Hurricanes…..Duke has won and covered the L5 games vs Northwestern……The Cats are on a 14-21-1 ATS run as home chalk.
Lean – Duke +3 -115
Posted 4:59pm Sept 2
Line just moved as we were typing this out. Ha ha. Once a week it happens.
+3 -115 to +3 -120 is widely available; You can get +3.5 -122 at Bet Rivers which is also a decent play in our mind. Only one major shop that we see still has +3 -110.
11. Penn St -35 Bowling Green (49)……….MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -32
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 42 Bowling Green 7
The Nittany Lions came thru last week for LEAN CLUB members as they plastered West Virginia….Bowling Green looked ok vs Fordham as they rushed for 306 yards but we were hoping for better from the defense but at least they had 5 sacks…..Penn St coming off the big win….Bowling Green is one of the best teams in the MAC and they’ve done well vs killer opponents on the road as yuuuge dogs recently….+35 vs Tennessee (cover)…..+31 at Minnesota (won outright)…..+40 at Michigan (cover)……+21 at Georgia Tech (won outright)….BG has a legit QB and rushing attack and one of the best TEs in the nation….The D only allowed 24 PPG last year and they should be just as good this year when it’s all said and done….Time to plug the nose and take the points.
Lean – Bowling Green +35
Posted 5:17pm Sept 2
12. Georgia Tech -3 Syracuse (61)……….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Tech -3
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Tech 32 Syracuse 29
The JUGGERNAUT Yellow Jackets head to the dome in Syracuse and they’ll try to keep rolling after wins over Florida St and Georgia St…..The Seminoles look like trash right now so maybe that win wasn’t as great as we thought?….The good news is that Georgia Tech still has a very efficient offense led by their dangerous QB Haynes King whilst the defense looks improved….Syracuse disposed of Ohio in week one (W 38-22) but they allowed 255 (!) yards on the ground to a MAC team….Note they’ll also be without star LB Marlowe Wax who’s out for about six weeks….The Orange have an offense that can SCORE the FOOTBALL behind QB Kyle McCord and they’re a tough out at home…..Then again….Georgia Tech has been good away from home under HC Brent Key….ARGH…..Tough call at this price point would have liked GT at a pick ’em price but here we are.
No leanage
13. Liberty -22 New Mexico St (59)……….MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -21
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 40.5 New Mexico St 18.5
The Flames didn’t look overwhelming in their week one victory over the KOOKY Campbell Fighting Camels (W 41-24) but they’re still the class of CUSA….New Mexico St put up decent fights a couple of times LY vs Liberty including in the conference title game but now they have no Diego Pavia and no Jerry Kill…..Will take a pass on this one.
No leanage
14. Louisiana -15.5 Kennesaw St (47.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Louisiana -17
Vegas Implied Score – Louisiana 31.5 Kennesaw St 16
The Owls did well in their first FBS game last week as they easily covered the big spread on the road at UTSA (L28-16) who’s one of the best programs in the Group of Five…..They couldn’t do much on the ground in that one and only put up 253 total yards but they held the Roadrunners to just 76 (!) rushing yards…..The pass defense was a big problem but the Cajuns aren’t an intimidating passing team…..Motivational edge for Kennesaw St in their FBS home opener but we need another data point or two before we back them with our cashola.
No leanage
15. Maryland -8 Michigan St (44)……….MEGALOCKS line – Maryland -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 26 Michigan St 18
We circled this BAD BOY as a game of interest during the summer as we’re higher than market on Sparty and not big fans of this year’s Maryland squad……However, the week one results give us a bit of pause as Michigan St QB Aidan Chiles didn’t look great vs Florida Atlantic (!) and Maryland’s stop unit is pretty good….And boy did the Terps surprise us with the THROW GAME last week vs UConn….Billy Edwards Jr threw for over 300 yards and looked good doing it….Ya, it was just UConn….But that 50-7 blowout win was a nice way to start the season….The MOB STEAM appears to be on the Spartans early in the week….Michigan St HC Jonathan Smith was 13-7 ATS as a road dog with Oregon St…..Maryland had hot starts in 2021, 2022, and 2023….Line in a dead spot between -7 (would be tempted to take the Terps) and -10 (might have to consider grabbing the points).
No leanage
16. East Carolina -1.5 Old Dominion (53.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – East Carolina -3
Vegas Implied Score – East Carolina 27.5 Old Dominion 26
ARRRRRRRRRRRRRR the mighty Pirates started the season with a bang taking down FCS turd Norfolk St (W 42-3) and they put up over 500 yards in that game and only allowed three points despite turning the ball over SIX (!) times (3 INT, 3 FUM)…We expected some mistakes in game one under a new system (Ole Miss co-OC LY) and don’t forget that East Carolina was absolutely DISGUSTING on offense LY (17 PPG, #127 FBS) and we expect a yuuuge improvement in 2024….Especially with an actual QB Jake Garcia (formerly of YOUR Miami Hurricanes) and a deep WR corps….The defensive was salty LY (22 PPG) and they’ll be good again this season……Old Dominion almost SHOCKED the WORLD last week at South Carolina (L 23-19) and they would have pulled the upset if not for gift wrapping a pair of TDs to the Gamecocks….The bad news is that they only put up 305 yards of total offense and allowed 5 (!) sacks…..Recall that they allowed an impossible 61 (!) in 2023….Their defense is underrated but believe us when we tell you East Carolina brings a lot more heat on offense than South Carolina…..The ARRRRRRRR Pirates have won the last four meetings…..Old Dominion has their yuuuge non-conference game with the hated in-state bunch from Virginia Tech up next and they’re coming off a physical game in which they almost won vs an SEC team on the road…..Not a great spot….We think East Carolina is a darkhorse contender in the AAC and if that is the case we sure hope they can handle Old Dominion.
Official play – East Carolina ML -120
Sent 2:46pm EST Sept 3
-120 is the price almost everywhere. DK has a -118.
17. South Alabama -1.5 Ohio (56.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – South Alabama -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – South Alabama 29 Ohio 27.5
Tough game to call and the line looks about right to our MAC INSIDERS……South Alabama got PLOWED in the 2nd half vs North Texas last week (38 pts allowed) and that helped MEGALOCKS ML UNDERDOG CLUB cash some sweet TICKEE TICKEE….They’re still a work in progress with a reloaded roster but we love the upside of QB Gio Lopez (432Y, 3 TD, 62 rush) (!)….The defense looks pretty sketchy tho…..Ohio is another team with a ton of new faces but they looked better than we thought LW in their loss to the Orange (L 38-22)…..RB Anthony Tyus rushed for over 200Y (!) in that game and QB Parker Navarro looked just fine…..Ohio beat Iowa St last year at home for what it’s worth and they’re 11-1 SU in Athens L2Y.
No leanage
UPDATE
ADDED Sept 4. 10:18am EST
Lean: Over 56
56 is the market consensus. NOTE for THRIFTY SHOPPERS – BetOnline showing 55.5.
18. Texas St -1 UTSA (64)……….MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Texas St 32.5 UTSA 31.5
This should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend and it’s almost certainly an ELIMINATION GAME for the Group of Five playoff spot….The Roadrunners looked MEH in their win over Kennesaw St last week and they had trouble getting the ground game going….Thankfully, Texas St’s defense is HOT TRASH…….The good news for the Bobcats is that whilst they weren’t in top form either in their win over something called Lamar last week they still put up over 200Y on the ground and thru the air….Last team with the ball wins?……Quite possibly.
No leanage
19. Navy -12.5 Temple (43)……….MEGALOCKS line – Navy -14
Vegas Implied Score – Navy 27.75 Temple 15.25
Navy promised to do a better job on offense this year and they showed up in week one vs Bucknell (W 49-21)….Every win is yuuge this season for the Midshipmen as they try and cobble together six wins for a bowl berth….Temple got blown to bits by the Sooners (L 51-3) but note that they held mighty Oklahoma to just 378 (!) total yards and it didn’t help that the Owls were an impossible (-6) in turnovers…..Prefer the fav but now that we see some MOBSTERS nibbling at Temple and keeping this line from hitting -14 we wonder if it gets to -11?….That would probably be our buy point. Stay tuned.
Holding pattern as per above.
20. Georgia Southern -1 Nevada (57)……….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia Southern -2
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia Southern 28 Nevada 27
Nevada has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the early season action as they gave SMU all they could handle AND A BAG OF CHIPS in week one (L 29-24) and then SHOCKED the WORLD with a road win over Troy last week…..Keep in mind this is a team that won just two games in each of the last two seasons……Georgia Southern’s offense can really light it up as they scored 45 points vs Boise St last week…..The bad news is that they allowed an impossible 9.9 (!!!!!) yards per play in their 56-45 loss…..Feels like a coin toss…..We’re mildly intrigued by the total and may come back to that this week. Stay tuned.
Holding pattern as noted above.
21. Clemson -17.5 Appalachian St (53)……….MEGALOCKS line – Clemson -17
Vegas Implied Score – Clemson 35.25 Appalachian St 17.75
The line looks about right and there’s valid reasons for playing each side….Clemson hung with mighty Georgia for a half last week and then the dam broke…..They still play excellent defense and have to be JACKED UP to get the bad taste out of their collective mouths….Appalachian St is a longshot contender for a Group of Five playoff spot and they’ll wanna give a good showing in this one….Their offense is legit but we worry about a run defense that allowed 178 YPG LY and then allowed 183 yards on the ground to something referred to as “East Tennessee St” last week…..Clemson is a lot better on offense when the rushing attack can do damage…..Interesting tidbit from the intrepid Mike Calabrese…..The Tigers are on a 3-11 ATS run as home favorites of 17+.
No leanage
22. Arkansas St -7.5 Tulsa (65.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas St 36.5 Tulsa 29
We’re very high on the Red Wolves’ prospects in the FUN BELT this season even after they slithered past a decent FCS squad in Central Arkansas last week thanks to a last-second TD…..They were up by 17 in the 4Q….blew the lead…..but found a way to win….The offense is extremely potent behind exciting specimen QB Jaylen Raynor and here’s a nugget you can’t possibly find anywhere else….The Red Wolves played without their two best OL last week and they’re healthy and ready to go for the this one…..Tulsa is in rebuilding mode but they looked decent last week in a 62-28 win over FCS turd Northwestern St…..Very interested if the line gets back to -7. Stay tuned.
Holding pattern as noted above.
23. Cincinnati -2 Pittsburgh (62)……….MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 32 Pittsburgh 30
Not a game we’re interested in from an investment standpoint….Pitt’s new offense looked great last week but that was vs Kent St….We think the Bearcats have the potential to be a bit better this year but we need to see them play at least one or two FBS opponents before we feel confident and we’re looking forward to stud DL THE GODFATHER Dontay Corleone get back on the field at some point….The ‘over’ was worth a look but MOB STEAM took it a bit out of our comfort zone…..Feels like a 50/50 shot in terms of who wins the game.
No leanage
24. Virginia Tech -20 Marshall (52)……….MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -21
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 36 Marshall 16
We like the prospects for the Hokies in terms of being a threat in the ACC but after watching every snap of their opening week loss to the WACKY Vanderbilt Commodores in week one ** we’ve tempered our expectations just a wee bit….Their defense was a major disappointment and it took a while for the offense to get rolling….Revenge spot for the Hokies but we’d want a line closer to -18 to consider playing the fav even tho Marshall is probably gonna stink this year.
** CONGRATS Vanderbilt Season Win Total ‘OVER’ Club members
No leanage
25. Wake Forest -1.5 Virginia (57)……….MEGALOCKS line – Wake Forest -3
Vegas Implied Score – Wake Forest 29.25 Virginia 27.75
We’ll take a small taste of the home team in this one…Both teams looked good in their openers vs FCS scrubs but we give the Deacons a slight edge at QB, WR depth, RB, DL, and at HC…..We see value in the line and Wake Forest is sneaky good at home…..23-7 (!) SU since 2019.
Lean – Wake Forest ML
Posted 5:35pm Sept 4
-120 is the market consensus. There are a small handful of shops including BetOnline and Heritage posting numbers at a better price. THRIFY SHOPPERS take note, yo.
26. Oklahoma -29.5 Houston (49.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -28
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 39.5 Houston 10
The Sooners smoked the giant turd known as Temple last week (W 51-3) but note that MEGALOCKS staff watched every snap of that disgusting affair and Oklahoma didn’t impress us on offense…..SIX Temple turnovers were a yuuuge factor in the outcome….Houston’s offense was PURE FILTH last week vs UNLV so we’re not confident in their ability to SCORE the FOOTBALL…..Line looks about right….If the Sooners can’t exceed 400Y of offense (378Y last week) vs the Cougars our alarm bells will be going RINGY DINGY DINGY.
No leanage
27. Arizona St -6 Mississippi St (60)……….MEGALOCKS line – Arizona St -4
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 33 Mississippi St 27
Before we crown Arizona St as National Champs after their blowout win over Wyoming in week one (W 48-7) we need to understand that they were playing WYOMING and that the Cowboys started SIMPLE JACK at QB….Mississippi St still has SEC talent (lower level, mind you) and an offensive-minded HC who can probably figure out how to move the ball on a mediocre Arizona St defense….The Bulldogs whooped something called Eastern Kentucky last week (W 56-7) which doesn’t mean a lot but it means SOMETHING because they’ve got a veteran QB and are equal (or superior) in overall raw talent……High variance game that’s ideal for ML UNDERDOG CLUB members…..Friday can’t some soon enough for our GLOBAL-WIDE release on the AWARD-WINNING blog pages.
No leanage.
UPDATE
Lean – Under 59
Posted 4:15pm Sept 6
59 is the market consensus
28. Notre Dame -28 Northern Illinois (45)……….MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -28
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 36.5 Northern Illinois 8.5
WHOA, NELLIE!….The Irish went into College Station last week and handled Texas A&M (W 23-13) and whilst their defense was excellent as expected we also give yuuuuge props to the newly constructed OL that didn’t give up a single sack….The offense didn’t look too scary but Texas A&M is a stout defensive outfit….Northern Illinois is a legit contender in the MAC but how many points can they score vs that elite Irish defense?…..Notre Dame has Purdue up next…..Northern Illinois is 14-5 ATS as a road dog under HC Thomas Hammock…..Slight preference to the dog but we haven’t got involved yet.
No leanage
29. Utah -14.5 Baylor (54.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Utah -14
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 34.5 Baylor 20
Utah looked fine in their tune-up vs FCS patsy Southern Utah (W 49-3) and whilst you can’t take much away from that game it was great to see QB Cam Rising back on the field along with star TE Brant Kuithe and how about Dijon Stanley who rushed for 34 yards and caught three passes for 150Y and 2 TD….They’re the class of the Big 12 on paper but we’ll see how things play out….Baylor smoked a Tarleton St team playing without their starting QB (W 45-3) last week and the big question is how former MAC (!) star QB D Finn performs in one of the most intimidating places in college football…..MOB STEAM took this line down from 17….Sat at 14 for a bit….Now 14.5 painted almost everywhere….Prefer the Utes but we’ll wait and see if the line dips one more time into the 13.5/14 range….Not likely, but you never know. Stay tuned!
Holding pattern as per above.
30. Rutgers -23 Akron (39)……….MEGALOCKS line – Rutgers -25
Vegas Implied Score – Rutgers 31 Akron 8
The Zips held their own for a while vs mighty Ohio St last week (17-3 at halftime) before things got out of control in the 2nd half….They’ll be worth playing once MACtion rolls around but it’s tough to take them against physical Big Ten teams…..Rutgers runs the ball extremely well and plays solid defense….Should be a quick game and covering the big number is a bit of a question mark.
No leanage
31. Washington -25 Eastern Michigan (47)……….MEGALOCKS line – Washington -27
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 36 Eastern Michigan 11
The Eagles came thru for us BIGLY last week and crafty HC Chris Creighton is once again in the point spread role of road underdog (now 34-16-1, 68%)….We’d gladly jump on board but the MOB STEAM has taken this game down from -27/-28 and we were hoping to see +28 for the “good guys”….Those dreams are long gone as we didn’t expect billions to come in on Eastern Michigan….Hard to know what to think of an almost completely new Washington team with a new HC and they got the rivalry game with Washington St up next…..The Huskies handled Weber St 35-3 last week.as 29-point favs.
No leanage
32. Washington St -2 Texas Tech (67)……….MEGALOCKS line – Washington St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Washington St 34.5 Texas Tech 32.5
The Red Raiders escaped with their lives last week as a tune-up game turned into a LIFE AND DEATH STRUGGLE against something called Abilene Christian (W 52-51 in OT, allowed over 500 (!) passing yards)….That’s bad news when facing a Washington St team that just scored 70 (!) points vs FCS donkey Portland St and they threw for over 400 yards in that affair….It’s never easy traveling to the middle of nowhere to play Washington St (41-21 SU L10Y+ at home) and the Cougars will be honoring the great HC Mike Leach who tragically passed away in late 2022….Leach also coached the Red Raiders….Washington St is playing a rare game vs a Power 4 team after getting boned in the conference realignment process…..Lots of reasons for them to be motivated in this one…..Texas Tech’s star RB Tahj Brooks is a 50/50 game-time decision for the Red Raiders and if he’s a go you’ll see the line tick down on gameday…..Tech opened as a one-point fav and the line swung in large part due to the injury news….We like the Cougars to win regardless of his status.
Lean – Washington St -2
Posted 2:30pm Sept 5
-2 is the consensus line. There are a few rogue -1.5s.
33. Texas -7 Michigan (42.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Texas -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 24.75 Michigan 17.75
We were hoping to have some SWEET ACTION on this game and back the Longhorns but the line has moved from the -3.5 offseason number all the way to -7….It was -7.5 for a good chunk of the week and now we’ve seen some buyback….Michigan still has a great defense but the QB situation is a mess and their WR unit appears to be MAC-caliber….Texas SHELLACKED Colorado St in week one to the tune of 52-CACK but the Rams have ZERO run game and we’re not sure how the Horns will hold up vs a Michigan offense that’ll do whatever it takes to run the ball and shorten the game….Mildly intrigued by an ‘under’ play of some kind but not sure if we’ll get to the window.
No leanage
34. Auburn -13 California (53) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -13
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 33 California 20
The Golden Bears gave Auburn a good battle in Berkeley in week two LY (L 14-10) but that was before Auburn got their SEA LEGS and started to play better football…..Cal was outgained by something referred to as UC Davis last week in a 31-13 win and we don’t have a ton of confidence in their offense….We do however love RB Jaydn Ott and believe that their stop unit will be better in 2024….Auburn HC Hugh Freeze is an ATS MONSTER (59% career) but was just 6-7 ATS in year one with the Tigers…..Like the Golden Bears in the role of road underdog under Justin Wilcox (17-9 ATS) but we’d want +14 to jump in the pool.
No leanage
35. Kentucky -9.5 South Carolina (42.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Kentucky -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kentucky 26 South Carolina 16.5
It’s impossible to back the COCKS this week after their disgusting performance vs Old Dominion but you have to wonder if they had one eye on this SEC opener…..Kentucky destroyed Southern Miss last week (W 31-CACK) in a weather-shortened affair ** and they’ve got a really good defense…We’re not sold on the OL/RB situation tho….Smells like an ‘under’ play is hiding in here somewhere so we may get back to this one.
** lightning strike in Slovakia….You can never be too safe!
Holding pattern as noted above.
36. Oregon -21 Boise St (60)……….MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -21
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 40.5 Boise St 19.5
Oregon was in a fight for their lives last week as they only led Idaho 17-14 (!) in the 4Q despite being over 40-point favs….QB Dillon Gabriel threw for almost 400Y but they couldn’t get the ground attack rolling (107 yards, 2.9 YPC !) and that makes the Ducks an automatic NO GO for this one….Boise St prevailed in a shootout vs Georgia Southern last week (W 56-45) and whilst we love RB Ashton Jeanty (6 TD week 1) (!) their defense appears to be HOT GARBAGE.
No leanage
37. Oregon St -6 San Diego St (54)……….MEGALOCKS line – Oregon St -6.5
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon St 30 San Diego St 24
Tough game to call and the number looks about right….San Diego St got off to a slow start vs….wait for it…..wait for it…Texas A&M Commerce but they eventually pulled clear with 42 (!) 2nd half points….They’re still in the learning phase of the new offense under new HC Sean Lewis…..Oregon St is in total rebuild mode and we’ll need to see them play at least two or three games before supporting them at the windows.
No leanage
38. Central Michigan -6 FIU (51.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Central Michigan -4
Vegas Implied Score – Central Michigan 28.75 FIU 22.75
FIRE UP CHIPS looked good in their week one dismantling of FCS stain Central Connecticut St (W 66-10) but we still view them as an average MAC outfit and note they’ve lost one of their best WRs Tyson Davis for the season…..We’re higher than market on FIU and they should be competitive in this one……Was hoping to see the line get to +7 but it never did….Prime contender for ML Underdog action on Friday.
No leanage
39. Toledo -17.5 Massachusetts (51.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Toledo -19.5
Vegas Implied Score – Toledo 34.50 UMass 17
Didn’t think we’d see the line come down from the -20 area and it’s been a slow bleed down to the current number….We’ll probably sign up if we see a flat ’17’ as Toledo is still one of the best teams in the MAC and the Minutemen were down 28-7 in the 4Q at home vs Eastern Michigan before scoring a late TD to make it 28-14…..Prefer the fav need to mull this one over a bit more.
Holding pattern as per above.
40. Florida Atlantic -3.5 Army (42.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Florida Atlantic -3
Vegas Implied Score – Florida Atlantic 23 Army 19.5
Army looked more like the Army of old last week as they’ve promised to get back closer to their roots……375 yards on the ground in their win over Lehigh last week….This is a conference game (!) for the Black Knights as they move into the AAC…..The intrepid Phil Steele notes that they’ve dropped 6L7 road openers…..FAU bent us over the HAY BALE last week (see Week 1 in Review post) and we still think their offense is TRASH….Like that defense a bit tho….Not sure about the side but Army is on the short list for ML dog action.
No leanage
41. UCF -21.5 Sam Houston (55.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – UCF -23
Vegas Implied Score – UCF 38.5 Sam Houston 17
Yes, guy….The Sam Houston Bearkats SHOCKED the WORLD in week one as they spanked a decent AAC team (Rice) on the road but now they travel to a place that’s been a HOUSE OF HORRORS for many opponents….UCF has a devastating rushing attack and they move at the speed of light on offense ** ….The Knights rolled for 454 yards on the ground last week but Sam Houston is gonna provide a lot more resistance than New Hampshire….UCF HC Gus Malzahn is 8-9 ATS as home chalk and they’ve got the Big 12 opener on deck (TCU)…..Prefer the favorite but not sure we can get there.
** Fact check: Not impossible.
No leanage
42. SMU -11.5 BYU (55.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – SMU -12.5
Vegas Implied Score – SMU 33.5 BYU 22
We’ve looked at this game for a bit of time every day since Monday ** and still can’t figure out this puzzle wrapped up in a riddle….SMU looked dull in their road opener to say the least but don’t forget Nevada came back and won the next week on the road at Troy and Nevada almost beat Kansas (!) at home LY with a HORRIFIC team compared to what they have this year…..So winning at Nevada isn’t always easy….SMU looked better on offense last week but that was vs Houston Christian…Their QB situation is still in flux (Preston Stone, is he 100% healthy?) and the OL appears to be down a slight notch from LY’s squad…..We still like their defense quite a bit….We don’t have high hopes for BYU but they looked sharp in their win over a half-decent FCS squad last week (Southern Illinois) and QB Jake Retzlaff averaged almost 12 (!) YPA in game #1….SMU’s offense is gonna cause problems for the BYU defense and we prefer the over….We just can’t get past some of the last few SMU games vs non-turds as the games were pretty low scoring….L 23-14 vs BC….W 26-14 vs Tulane…L 34-17 at TCU…..L 28-11 at Oklahoma.
** someone’s got issues
No leanage
43. Kansas St -9 Tulane (47)……….MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 28 Tulane 19
We’re lower than market when it comes to Kansas St as whilst we admit they’re a very good team we need to see some evidence of a decent THROW GAME behind their emerging star QB Avery Johnson…..And their run D and pass rush were MEH in 2023….Tulane was a team that we’ve done a bit of a 180 degree turn on…..After more detailed review of the transfer talent brought down to New Orleans we have much higher hopes for their AAC prospects….Can they hang with Kansas St?….We’ll they beat Kansas St (!) on the road two years ago and that Wildcats team ended up winning the Big 12…..This Tulane team isn’t as good as what we saw in 2022 but they looked good in week one vs FCS turd SE Louisiana (W 52-CACK) under new HC Jon Sumrall (19-8 ATS career)…..Prefer the home dog but Kansas St HC Chris Klieman is one of the best in the business when it comes to covering the spread……41-22 (65%)….He’s just 4-4 ATS as road chalk tho…0-3 ATS in 2023 in that scenario…..Let’s see if double digits becomes available again.
Holding pattern as noted above.
44. Kansas -4.5 Illinois (57.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -6
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 31 Illinois 26.5
We’d love to back the Jayhawks in this spot as they’ve got a much more dynamic offense behind QB Jalon Daniels and we see just a wee bit of value in the number….The bad news is that Kansas has been a MUCH better team at home under HC Lance Leipold and they’re just 6-11 ATS in true road games under his watch…..On the other hand, Illinois is just 7-14 ATS at home under HC Bret Bielema…..The Illini had a good tuneup in week one (much like Kansas) and note that this is a revenge spot for Illinois after the Jayhawks SPANKED DAT AZZ in Lawrence LY (W 34-23).
No leanage
45. Nebraska -7 Colorado (56.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Nebraska -6
Vegas Implied Score – Nebraska 31.75 Colorado 24.75
CORN finally has a QB in true freshman Dylan Raiola who looked good in the opener vs UTEP (W 40-7) and you know they can play defense….Colorado throws the ball all over the yard with future NFL QB Shedeur Sanders and the outstanding combo of WR Jimmy Horn and WR/CB Travis Hunter….CORN looking to avenge last season’s 36-14 blowout loss at Colorado in which the Buffs threw for 396 (!) yards……Can the Huskers do a better job on the back end?….Feels like dog or pass….Taking a seat for now.
No leanage
46. Iowa -3 Iowa St (35)……….MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -3
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 19 Iowa St 16
It’s time for our PEE INTO THE WIND GAME OF THE WEEK……..Last week we cashed with a 900 STAR SAFE AND EFFECTIVE LOCK as USC/LSU stayed well under the total of 67/68 (27-20 final, 47)…..Now we are going to do the unthinkable and take an ‘over’ in an Iowa game….Both teams are better on offense than people think….Iowa QB Cade McNamara looked fine after a slow start (3 TD) and the WR/TE weaponry looked ok (who in the SAM HILL is Recce Vander Zee?)…..and you know they’re loaded at RB….Iowa St QB Rocco Becht improved a lot during his freshman season in 2023 (3,120, 23-8 TD to INT and the Cyclones have a potential star RB in Abu Sama (very little action last week) and a VERY underrated group of TE/WRs…..As far as the total…It will help that Iowa St is down a few key players on defense….This is a DEAD UNDER series but you have to reassess once the total gets this low…..Three of the last four meetings have hit 33/44/35…..How about the totals in Iowa St’s last few games?……They won 21-3 vs North Dakota last week in a sleepy spot but they ended the 2023 campaign with 62/77/42/58/49/48/40/41/70/61……Don’t see too many numbers lower than 35 in there.
Lean – Over 35
Posted 10:35am Sept 6
35 is the market number. A smattering of books are showing 35.5 so shop around.
47. Ohio St -37.5 Western Michigan (54.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Ohio St -34.5
Vegas Implied Score – Ohio St 46 Western Michigan 8.5
The Broncos played a heck of a game on the road vs Wisconsin last Friday night and they actually had the lead early in the 4Q before falling 28-14…..It took a while for Ohio St to get rolling vs Akron (17-3 at half) before they dominated the 2nd half and rolled to a 52-6 victory….This is a few too many points in our book but we worry about this being the Broncos’ 2nd consecutive MEAT GRINDER as whilst the Wisconsin defense is decent, the Ohio St stop unit is a BRICK WALL.
No leanage
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.