Week 2 – Tennessee vs NC State
posted Sept 5
The Game
We’ve got some SWEET ACC vs SEC ACTION on Saturday night as Tennessee duels with NC State down in Charlotte. The Wolfpack looked a bit shaky in their week one victory over FCS foe Western Carolina (W 38-21) whilst the Volunteers cremated the Chattanooga Mocs in their opener (W 69-3). Both teams are longshot players in their respective conferences. Both teams BELIEVE they can get to playoff. Who will come out on top in this BAD BOY?
The Details
Tennessee -9 NC State (61.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Tennessee -9.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Tennessee 35.25 NC State 26.25
Tennessee offense vs NC State defense
The Volunteers are led by a Heisman Trophy candidate in QB Nico Iamaleava who’s looked really impressive in his TWO starts. Yes, people forget that he had a very good game vs Iowa (!) in their 35-CACK victory in last year’s Citrus Bowl, and that Hawkeye defense was excellent. Nico is surrounded by dangerous weaponry at RB (D Sampson 100+ week 1) and they’re very deep at the position (300+ team rush week 1). Tennessee also has a dangerous (and now healthy) WR corps that can scorch you at a moment’s notice. The offensive line is one of the best in the SEC and they move at LIGHTNING FAST speed. This is all gonna provide a yuuuge challenge for an NC State stop unit that allowed 6.3 YPC, 241 passing yards, and 21 points to W Carolina. The defense is nowhere near as good without all-Universe LB Payton Wilson (Steelers) and they’re gonna have issues in this contest.
NC State offense vs Tennessee defense
The Pack didn’t look smooth last week but you have to give them credit for putting up over 500 yards whilst doing damage on the ground (203) and thru the air (318). We were big fans of QB Grayson McCall when he was at Coastal Carolina but he’s taking a massive step up in class for this game and note that he was banged up in 2023. So we really haven’t seen the real deal since the 2022 campaign. McCall has a legit #1 RB and a upgraded set of THROW GAME pieces that’ll make Tennessee work on defense. Keep your eye on WR Kevin Concepcion who caught 70 balls LY and he got off to a good start in week one (3 TD). Tennessee has a very strong defensive front and decent LB corps but the biggest weakness on the team is an experienced secondary that McCall will have to exploit if the Pack wanna keep this game competitive.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
Tennessee HC Josh Heupel is 12-3 ATS in non-conference action with the Vols and 17-8 ATS as a favorite…..This game is being played at a neutral site in Charlotte but it’s worth noting that NC State HC Dave Doeren is 10-18-2 ATS (36%) in true road games with the Wolfpack….They do much better work at home in Raleigh under his tutelage……The weather conditions should be perfect for the game according to our CHARLOTTE WEATHER INSIDERS……..Tennessee is on a 5-2 ATS run vs the ACC.
Summary
This is FIXIN’ to be a high-scoring game and we believe that plays right into the hands of the explosive Volunteers.
Conclusion
Official pick – Tennessee -9 -108
Sent 11:11am Sept 5
-9 is the market consensus. A few big shops are still showing -8.5 There are also a couple of 9.5s starting to emerge so shop around.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.