Week 3 – Air Force at Baylor
posted September 12
The Game
It’s a rematch of the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl as Air Force tangles with Baylor down in Waco on Saturday night. The Bears took FCS foe Tarleton St behind the WOODSHED in week one (W 45-3) and lost on the road vs mighty Utah last week (L 23-12). They were a lot more competitive vs the Utes once starting QB Cam Rising got hurt but they certainly didn’t embarrass themselves in one of the toughest venues on the planet. Air Force has struggled to start the season as they squeaked past the HOT MESS known as Merrimack in week one (W 21-6) and suffered a 10-point loss at home vs San Jose St last Saturday.
The Details
Baylor -15.5 Air Force (41.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Baylor -18
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Baylor 28.5 Air Force 13
Baylor offense vs Air Force defense
It’s hard to know what to think about the offense since they played the easiest team on their schedule and the toughest one in the first two games. We’re not sure how former Toledo star QB Dequan Finn will hold up in Big 12 play but he should be able to do some damage vs Air Force. Finn has hit 18+ yard completions to eight different guys so far and they’ve got an above-average set of WR/TE weaponry. Finn always struggles with his accuracy but we’re more worried about that when he plays vs the better teams in the Big 12. Baylor has a deep RB corps and it’ll be interesting to see how they fare vs an Air Force run D that’s looked pretty good so far (82 YPG). San Jose St had a lot of success with the THROW GAME last week so we expect the Bears to hit some big plays and the offense could have a big day if the running game is just a bit better than average.
Air Force offense vs Baylor defense
YIKES. The Air Force offense has been disgusting through two games against teams a lot worse than Baylor and they’re averaging an impossible 3.21 (!!) yards per play (worst FBS) after playing Merrimack and San Jose St. The rushing attack has been a yuuuge disappointment (155 YPG; 282 YPG in 2023) and QB John Busha is completing just 38% of his passes at less than four yards per attempt (0-2 TD to INT). It’s hard to see Air Force doing much on offense as they’ve lacked BIGLY in explosive plays so far and they’ve specialized in going three-and-out on offense. Baylor’s defense isn’t great but they’re probably a top-50 FBS group at worst, and certainly improved over what we saw in 2023.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
The Falcons beat the Bears 30-15 in the 2022 Armed Forces bowl but that was an excellent veteran Falcons squad….Baylor should wanna exact a bit of revenge…..The Falcons are traditionally a good bet as road underdogs (12-7-1 ATS L10Y)…..Baylor HC Dave Aranda is 8-6 ATS in the role of home favorite…..The intrepid Phil Steele rates Baylor’s special teams at #20….Air Force rolls in at #124.
Summary
It may not be pretty at times but we project Baylor to keep chipping away and eventually score enough to get the cover. 27 points might be enough. We’ll see.
Conclusion
Lean – Baylor -15.5
Posted 10:20am Sept 12
-15.5s are widely available. Circa is showing a -15 and we also see a -16.5 in the market so shop around!
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
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