Week 3 QUICK TAKES – College Football Predictions
Here are this week’s QUICK TAKES on games that did not make the cut for a longer write-up this week.
Let’s go!
ALL THE WRITE-UPS ARE COMPLETE EXCEPT FOR WEST VIRGINIA VS PITT WHICH WILL HAVE ITS OWN POST. WE’LL GET IT POSTED BY LATE MORNING. WE’LL HAVE A FEW GAMES ADDED TO OUR PLAY LIST AND THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES ARE NOTED IN THE DETAILS BELOW. WE’LL FINISH UP BY 3PM AND LET YOU KNOW WHEN WE’RE DONE!
UPDATE 2:10pm Friday. We’re done! Enjoy the games and THANKS again for your support!
Handy index: Quick Takes
‘Official’ picks in blue. ‘Leans’ in green. See the legend at the bottom of the page for more information on what that means.
- Ball St at Miami
- Kent St at Tennessee
- Utah at Utah St
- Oklahoma St at Tulsa
- Louisiana Tech at NC State
- Central Michigan at Illinois
- New Mexico at Auburn
- UTEP at Liberty
- San Diego St at California
- New Mexico St at Fresno St
- BYU at Wyoming
- Maryland at Virginia
- UAB at Arkansas
- Vanderbilt at Georgia St
- Troy at Iowa
- Virginia Tech at Old Dominion
- Arkansas St at Michigan
- Kennesaw St at San Jose St
- Colorado at Colorado St
- LSU at South Carolina
- Washington St vs Washington
- UTSA at Texas
- North Texas at Texas St
- Ole Miss at Wake Forest
- Jacksonville St at Eastern Michigan
- Arizona St at Texas St (THURSDAY)
- UNLV at Kansas (FRIDAY) (play added Sept 12 9:25am)
- Arizona at Kansas St (FRIDAY)
- Tulane at Oklahoma
- Texas A&M at Florida
- Coastal Carolina at Temple
- Rice at Houston
- Connecticut at Duke
- Nevada at Minnesota
- Western Kentucky at MTSU
- Massachusetts at Buffalo
- Memphis at Florida St
- Notre Dame at Purdue
- Indiana at UCLA
- Appalachian St at East Carolina
- Hawaii at Sam Houston
- FIU at Florida Atlantic
- Georgia at Kentucky
- Alabama at Wisconsin
- USF at Southern Miss
- Toledo at Mississippi St (play added Sept 13 1:35 pm)
- Cincinnati at Miami Ohio (play added Sept 13 1:35pm)
- UCF at TCU (play added Sept 13 2:05 pm)
- Boston College at Missouri
QUICK TAKES
1. Miami -36.5 Ball St (57)…………MEGALOCKS line – Miami -38
Vegas Implied Score – Miami 46.75 Ball St 10.25
YOUR Miami Hurricanes can name the score in this one but they’ve got a tricky game at South Florida next week and HC Mario Cristobal is just 2-7 ATS in the role of home favorite….Ball St played their first game last week and they looked decent vs Missouri St (were a small favorite in the game)….We have the Cardinals rated as one of the worst teams in the MAC so we’ll sit and watch this week.
No leanage
2. Tennessee -48 Kent St (63)…………MEGALOCKS line – Tennessee -49
Vegas Implied Score – Tennessee 55.5 Kent St 7.5
Another game where the favorite will be able to pulverize the opposition should they be motivated to do so…..The Volunteers removed NC State from the FACE of the EARTH last week (W 51-10) but note that they’ve got a yuuuuge game at Oklahoma up next….Kent St showed a bit of life in week one vs Pitt but they lost to….wait for it….something referred to as St Francis (PA) last week….Yes, the kooky RED FLASH booked a road win over an FBS team…..Line looks about right for this affair.
No leanage
3. Utah -21.5 Utah St (46.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Utah -21
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 34 Utah St 12.5
Utah got out to a big lead last week vs Baylor (23-CACK) but couldn’t do anything after star QB Cam Rising left due to injury….He’ll be back this week (at least the HC and the point spread are telling us that) and Utah St is coming off a 48-CACK drubbing at USC….We thought they’d score a few points and are a bit worried they’re worse than we thought…..It’s a rivalry game so we expect an “A” effort from the home team just not sure it’ll matter.
No leanage
4. Oklahoma St -20.5 Tulsa (62.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma St -19
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma St 41.5 Tulsa 21
The Cowboys escaped with their lives last week taking down WOO PIG in OT (W 39-31) whilst being outgained to the tune of 648-385 (!)….They haven’t exceeded 400Y of offense yet, star RB Ollie Gordon isn’t getting much done (3.9 YPC, 6.1 YPC in 2023), and they were cooked by opposing THROW GAMES in each of the first two contests (264/416 yards)….They also have a negative YPP margin after two games…..Tulsa (1-1) lost a tough one at Arkansas St last week and what we noticed from WATCHING the FILM is that QB Kirk Francis is good enough to make some plays vs the Pokes’ defense….The Golden Hurricane are averaging 6.7 YPC (4.1 LY) and haven’t allowed a sack (59 attempts)…..They’re deep at RB and already have a PR TD and a KR TD….Of course, they’re taking a big step up in class facing Oklahoma St but our position has been clear since the SNOW MELTED many months ago….We’re not sold on this Oklahoma St team…..Don’t forget that this is a CIRCLED GAME for Tulsa (instate rivalry) and the Cowboys have their biggest game of the regular season up next (home to Utah).
Lean – Tulsa +20.5
Posted 4:40pm EST Sept 9
A few 20s are popping up. It might go to 21 but we think it’s more likely it finishes at 20 or below at kickoff.
5. NC State -22 Louisiana Tech (51)……….MEGALOCKS line – NC State -23.5
Vegas Implied Score – NC State 36.5 Louisiana Tech 14.5
We won’t have a play on this one as NC State is coming off a 51-10 MASSACRE at the hands of Tennessee……a 999 STAR MEGALOCKS SAFE AND EFFECTIVE LEAD PIPE LOCK WINNER……..and they looked equally bad in their home opener vs Western Carolina….On the other hand, we rate Louisiana Tech as one of the bottom teams in the worst conference (CUSA) and cannot recommend backing them until they prove us wrong….Maybe coming off a bye will help a bit?
No leanage.
6. Illinois -20 Central Michigan (51)……….MEGALOCKS line – Illinois -18.5
Vegas Implied Score – Illinois 35.5 Central Michigan 15.5
Illinois is one of several teams in the MILQUETOAST MIDSECTION of the Big Ten but they sit at 2-0 and just disposed of a pretty good Kansas team….We might have them rated a bit too low but their big test will come next week at Nebraska…..Central Michigan was LAMBASTED by Florida International last week and while MEGALOCKS ML UNDERDOG CLUB wasn’t surprised by the result it certainly helped a bit that the Chippewas were (-6)(!) in turnover margin…On the other hand, the final score was 52-16 so it’s not like Central Michigan was in the same area code as the mighty Panthers…..Not one of our favorite games on the board to say the least.
No leanage
7. Auburn -28 New Mexico (61)……….MEGALOCKS line – Auburn -30
Vegas Implied Score – Auburn 44.5 New Mexico 16.5
It looks like favorite or pass on this BAD BOY as Auburn loves to pound the life out of turds (W 73-3 week 1 vs Alabama A&M) and the Lobos won’t put up any resistance on defense…The bad news for Auburn is that they were (-5) in t/o margin last week and they don’t look sharp….Oh and they’ve got the Razorbacks up next…..and then Oklahoma…..and then Georgia.
No leanage
8. Liberty -23 UTEP (57.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Liberty -24.5
Vegas Implied Score – Liberty 40.25 UTEP 17.25
Oh look….another back the favorite or take a seat game….Liberty has looked VERY average in their first two games and they almost lost at New Mexico St last week despite being over 3 TD favs…..UTEP is HOT TRASH though and they just lost to something known as Southern Illinois.
No leanage
9. California -19 San Diego St (50.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – California -20.5
Vegas Implied Score – California 34.75 San Diego 15.75
The Golden Bears SHOCKED the WORLD last week when they traveled down to Auburn and won the game as double-digit underdogs (W 21-14)….They were +5 in t/o margin and outgained the Tigers 334-286….The offense still doesn’t look great and what’s the deal with star RB Jaydn Ott?….24 carries for 60 yards (!) over two games….San Diego St got shutout by Oregon St last week and are clearly a major work-in-progress….Impossible to back them until they show some signs of life….Cal HC Justin Wilcox is just 6-13-1 (!) ATS as a home favorite.
No leanage
10. Fresno St -19.5 New Mexico St (48.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Fresno St -17.5
Vegas Implied Score – Fresno St 34 New Mexico St 14.5
New Mexico St was supposed to FALL OFF A CLIFF this season after losing a ton of players including their star QB, not to mention legendary HC Jerry Kill, but yet they almost pulled off a yuuuge upset last week vs Liberty…..They led by nine points midway thru the 4Q but couldn’t finish….They were outgained by Liberty 473-275 so maybe they ARE bad? Hard to tell and will need more evidence…Fresno hung around with Michigan in week one (L 30-10) in a game that featured a misleading final….And then they won 46-30 over something called Sacramento St (W 46-30)…Would like the fav at -17 and the dog at +21.5 but here we are.
No leanage
11. BYU -11 Wyoming (39.5) ……….MEGALOCKS line – BYU -10
Vegas Implied Score – BYU 25.25 Wyoming 14.25
It’s common knowledge that 23% of millionaires continue to build their wealth by betting on the Wyoming Cowboys as home underdogs (19-11 ATS L10Y) **….It’s gonna be hard to back them in this home underdog situation tho after watching their disgusting performances on offense over the first two games….QB Evan Svoboda is a train wreck (41%, 1-2 TD to INT, 4.3 YPA) and the Pokes are averaging a mere 2.5 YPC whilst being sacked 7 times…The defense was rolled for almost 500Y vs Arizona St but they played much better last week vs Idaho (who gave Oregon a scare)…..BYU comes into Laramie off a yuuuge road win over SMU (W 18-15) in which they didn’t allow a TD (SMU 5 FG)…..The defense looks much improved…..QB Jake Retzlaff has been ok but he’s still prone to the occasional bonehead maneuver……Check the Cougars’ RB situation closer to Saturday if you plan on playing this game as we noticed some RBs were banged up vs SMU……We could only look at BYU in this one but strange things happen in LARADISE….BYU HC Kalani Sitake is 9-12 ATS in the role of road favorite.
No leanage
** needs fact check
12. Maryland -2.5 Virginia (55) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Maryland 28.75 Virginia 26.25
If you’ve ever fallen off your roof and had an eyeball caught on a rusty nail then you can certainly appreciate how it felt to have Wake Forest ML last week when Virginia came back to win 31-30….Both teams have QBs that can make plays (and mistakes) but we prefer the Maryland stop unit….The Terrapins looked like they were on their way to beating Michigan St last week until they puked all over themselves in the final portion of the game….Maryland smoked Virginia 42-14 in College Park LY…..We’ll take a pass on this one.
No leanage
13. Arkansas -24.5 UAB (60.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Arkansas -24
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas 42.5 UAB 18
WOO PIG suffered a devastating 2-OT loss at Oklahoma St last week ** despite outgaining the Cowboys 648-385….They’ll be able to rip thru the Blazers’ defense but how focused will they be knowing that SEC play is on deck?…..Yup…Auburn….Texas A&M….Tennessee are all on the horizon…..UAB looked good in a tune-up game in week one but got plastered by ULM in week two….Will the REAL offense please STAND UP?…..QB Jacob Zeno is decent but the skill guys appear questionable…UAB added a lot of new faces on defense and we don’t have a great handle on what they bring to the table….Tempted to back WOO PIG but it’s a bad scheduling spot and can we really trust them to not give away the cover in the 4th Q?
No leanage
** but they still covered the +10, BAY-BEE
14. Vanderbilt -10.5 Georgia St (46.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Vanderbilt -12
Vegas Implied Score – Vanderbilt 28.5 Georgia St 18
Yes, guy…..The Commodores are 2-0 and just one win away from exceeding their season win total….SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB is anxiously awaiting a winning TICKEE TICKEE….They’ve done nothing wrong so far but the offense is still a bit plodding (6.09 YPP, #67), they’ve got SEC play on deck (Missouri), and we wonder how the Commodores will perform in the rare role of favorite (12-18 ATS L10Y)….Georgia St didn’t embarrass themselves vs Georgia Tech and they squeaked past a decent FCS foe in Chattanooga last week (W 24-21)….The roster is loaded with new players and they’ve got a new HC so we need more information on these guys before we can assess their true quality……Note that QB Christian Veilleux has throw 72 passes without an INT (3 TD) and he’s only been sacked one time.
No leanage
15. Iowa -22.5 Troy (39)……….MEGALOCKS line – Iowa -24
Vegas Implied Score – Iowa 30.75 Troy 8.25
This is a rebuilding year for the Trojans and whilst they’re 0-2 to start the season they didn’t look horrible in losses to a scrappy Nevada team and the Memphis Tigers….QB GOOSE Crowder may not go but the backup looked fine last week…The big issue for Troy is a run defense that got rolled for over 200Y in each of the first two games….That’s bad news facing an Iowa team that features star RB Kaleb Johnson (306, 8.5, 4 TD in 2G)….And you know the Iowa defense won’t give up much of anything….Horrible situational spot for Iowa after handing the CY HAWK TROPHY over to Iowa St and they’ve got Big Ten play up next….We will note however that Iowa has done very well over the L5Y in pretty much the exact same situation…..4 games ** after Iowa St and before Big Ten play….4-0 SU….4-0 ATS….Average margin of victory 31.5 points….There’s a NUGGET you won’t find anywhere else on the planet….No play for now but considering Iowa…..Maybe “sharps” can pound it down to -21 with a big PURCHASE ORDER?
** did not play Iowa St during 2020 SCAMDEMIC season
Holding pattern as per above.
16. Virginia Tech -14 Old Dominion (50)……….MEGALOCKS line – Virginia Tech -14
Vegas Implied Score – Virginia Tech 32 Old Dominion 18
The Hokies have looked VERY average to say the least in their first two games vs Vanderbilt (L) and Marshall (W)…The offense has been MEH, the run D a bit suspect, and the OL has allowed 8 sacks in 2G (24 in 13G LY)…..The good news is that they’re playing a team in Old Dominion that’s been brutal on offense (4.03 YPP!, #125 FBS) and we may see a new QB this week….Fortunately for the Monarchs their D has been very stout and our DEEP OLD DOMINION INSIDERS have informed us that star LB Jason Henderson might be healthy and ready to go this week (limited play week 1, out LW)…..It’s hard to see ODU getting much done on offense but points might be tough to come by for the road team and recall that ODU beat Virginia Tech in 2022 on this very field….Dog or pass for us….Haven’t gotten to the window yet but may reassess.
Holding pattern as per above.
17. Michigan -22.5 Arkansas St (47.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Michigan -24
Vegas Implied Score – Michigan 35 Arkansas St 12.5
Arkansas St is a very fortunate 2-0 after winning a pair of close games and now they take a yuuuge step up in class and visit the Big House….Michigan’s offense has been a disaster so far but they still have an elite defense…..Texas scored some points on them last week but let’s be real….that was TEXAS and the Michigan defense got no help from the offense….Michigan is our preferred position in this game but the Red Wolves have a dynamic QB and lots of weapons….Michigan has major problems SCORING THE FOOTBALL so it’s hard to lay more than 20 points….Also note that Michigan has USC (!!) on deck……The intrepid Phil Steele reminds us that Arkansas St is 1-7 ATS L8 as underdogs of 20+ points…..Tough call.
No leanage
18. San Jose St -19 Kennesaw St (44)……….MEGALOCKS line – San Jose St -20.5
Vegas Implied Score – San Jose St 31.5 Kennesaw St 12.5
Easy game to throw in the trash bin from a wagering perspective….San Jose St might be better than we thought after beating Air Force but it may also be true that the Falcons are horrible…..Kennesaw St isn’t a complete disaster and note that they gave UTSA a decent game on the road in week one….Fav or pass and we’ll take a seat.
No leanage
19. Colorado -7 Colorado St (58.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Colorado -9.5
Vegas Implied Score – Colorado 32.75 Colorado St 25.75
It’s not gonna be easy to hit the “submit” button on this investment but Colorado St is MUCH worse than LY and now their only legit weapon on offense (WR Troy Horton) is nursing a groin injury and here’s a fun fact you won’t find anywhere else in the galaxy….Horton had 16 catches in LY’s game (less than 100% with groin issue) and the guys that caught the other 19 passes in the 2023 match-up are gone….And they can’t run the ball….The Buffs are HOT TRASH but they can compete with Mountain West scrubs and recall that QB S Sanders threw for over 400Y in the week one game vs N Dakota St….Nebraska’s D shut them down but they’re a top-20 defense…..Price feels cheap.
Lean – Colorado -7
Posted 3:52pm Sept 10
-7 is the number basically everywhere
20. LSU -7 South Carolina (50)……….MEGALOCKS line – LSU -7.5
Vegas Implied Score – LSU 28.5 South Carolina 21.5
South Cackalacky escaped with their lives vs Old Dominion in week one and then SMOKED Kentucky in week two….The offense is somewhat disgusting but the defense has been solid and they’re got a nice pair of pass rushers in Dylan Stewart and Kyle Kennard…..You almost always want to go against CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY but we have to admit that Williams-Brice Stadium is a really tough place for road teams to get a win and LSU is “good” but not “great” this season….The Tigers’ THROW GAME will be tough to defend but their defense is very average…..This game is a bit of a puzzler.
No leanage
21. Washington -4 Washington St (55.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Washington -6
Vegas Implied Score – Washington 29.75 Washington St 25.75
Washington St came thru for dedicated subscribers last week in a 37-16 win over Texas Tech but this will be their toughest task yet and the Huskies have only allowed 12 total points (!) in their two wins over TOMATO CANS to start the campaign….Not sure what to make of Washington and we understand that Washington St will be highly motivated to stick it to their rivals but we don’t see any value in the current number.
No leanage
22. Texas -35 UTSA (54)……….MEGALOCKS line – Texas -32.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas 44.5 UTSA 9.5
We see a bit of value in the underdog but the Roadrunners have struggled to run the football (76/82 yards F2G) and the QB situation is heinous…..Texas destroyed Colorado St and disposed of Michigan easily on the road so we don’t feel like fading them until they show at least one weakness.
No leanage
23. Texas Tech -9.5 North Texas (69.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Texas Tech -10.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas Tech 39.50 North Texas 30
We see a little bit of value in the number in favor of the favorite but it’s tough to back Texas Tech after watching them win by one point (!) over something referred to as Abilene Christian and then follow that up with a blowout loss vs Washington St….And the injuries are already starting to pile up…..The Mean Green are 2-0 but this is a yuuuge step up in class after facing South Alabama and SF Austin….They can SCORE the FOOTBALL but they play hideous defense…..Total around 70 looks about right.
No leanage
24. Ole Miss -23.5 Wake Forest (64.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Ole Miss -21
Vegas Implied Score – Ole Miss 44 Wake Forest 20.5
This tax on Ole Miss right now is a bit out of control given the pair of TOMATO CANS that they’ve beaten but they’ve looked absolutely devastating (128-3 combined margin of victory)(!) and you know we’re high on their overall prospects….Wake Forest grabbed DEFEAT out of the JAWS OF VICTORY last week in a one-point loss to Virginia….They’ve got enough weaponry to keep this one within 24 points but it’s probably a 50/50 shot.
No leanage
25. Eastern Michigan -2 Jacksonville St (52)……….MEGALOCKS line – Eastern Michigan -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Eastern Michigan 27 Jacksonville St 25
Yawn….The Eagles covered the spread as road underdogs in each of their first two games but we’re sure your sick of hearing about that by now…..The good news is that now we have a new narrative!….They’re in the role of home FAVORITE for this event and they don’t cash too many TICKEE TICKEE in that situation (9-19 ATS L10Y)…..Eastern Michigan is the better team but Jacksonville St is due for a better effort after giving up 104 (!) points in their first two games….At least this is a nice drop in class after facing Coastal Carolina and LUA-VUH.
No leanage
26. Arizona St -2 Texas St (60)……….MEGALOCKS line – Pick em
Vegas Implied Score – Arizona St 31 Texas St 29
We’ll roll with the home doggie in this one as Texas St appears to have a legit shot to get in the mix for a playoff spot given the way they are playing and the schedule in front of them…..And it also helps that App St lost by about 100 points to Clemson and Texas St just finished tearing UTSA to pieces (W 49-10)….Texas St will be hosting a Power conference team for just the 2nd time and Arizona St has to kooky road trip to San Marcos….The Bobcats have been rolling on offense behind veteran QB J McCloud and they’ve got one of the best RBs in the nation in Ismail Mahdi…..and a deep WR corps….The defense added a lot of new faces and whilst their pass D has looked sketchy they’ve been decent vs the run….That’s good news because Arizona St RB Cam SKATTEBO just finished rushing for over 260 yards vs Miss St….The Sun Devils are 2-0 with wins over the worst (?) team in the MW (Wyoming) and the worst (?) team in the SEC (Miss St) and both of those games were at home…..They’ve got no THROW GAME and haven’t seen an offense that knows what they’re doing yet.
Lean – Texas St +2
Posted 10:30am Sept 11
Pregame consensus is +2 but it’s a split market between +1/5/+2 so shop around. Right now you can find +2 at shops such as BetOnline, Bookmaker, and Draftkings. Our TOP SECRET ALGORITHM doesn’t believe it will hit +3 so we’re grabbing it now. It might, but it could also drop to pick em. Bird in the hand, yo.
27. Kansas -7 UNLV (58)……….MEGALOCKS line – Kansas -7
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas 32.5 UNLV 25.5
We don’t see any great “value” in the line but we prefer the road dog….UNLV took down Big 12 foe Houston without breaking a sweat and then destroyed the TOMATO CAN known as Utah Tech….QB M Sluka looked better throwing the ball last week and star WR R White had three TDs….Oh, and they also rushed for 500Y….but then again, that was Utah Tech…..Anyhoo, we like the mobility at QB and note that backup QB Haji-Malik Williams rushed for 88 yards last week (zero attempts)….UNLV also has a very underrated defense and HC Barry Odom is 7-0 (!) ATS in road games with the Rebels…..Kansas QB J Daniels is struggling (3-4 TD to INT, 6.2 YPA) and they’ll be playing this game at a soccer stadium about 40 miles away from their normal digs…..Kansas beat UNLV in a bowl game LY (!) (not Daniels at QB) so the Rebels have a bit of incentive to make things right….Gonna wait to see if a +7.5 pops up…..Don’t think it goes lower than -7. Stay tuned!
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE
Speak of the devil and he shall appear, yo.
Lean – UNLV +7.5
Posted 9:25am Sept 12
+7.5 is the number basically everywhere
28. Kansas St -7.5 Arizona (59.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Kansas St -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Kansas St 33.5 Arizona 26
Detailed analysis of this BAD BOY hasn’t gotten us any closer to making a decision…..We’re below market on both of these squads and the number looks about right….Neither team looked great last week as Kansas St scraped by Tulane and Arizona struggled with Northern Arizona (!)….Note that this is a non-conference affair even tho both teams play in the Big 12 as it was scheduled before Arizona joined the conference…..FWIW Kansas St HC Chris Klieman is 16-7 ATS as a home favorite.
No leanage
29. Oklahoma -13.5 Tulane (46.5) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Oklahoma -14
Vegas Implied Score – Oklahoma 30 Tulane 16.5
The Sooners’ defense has looked great in the first two weeks (15 total points allowed) and they’ve achieved remarkable PENETRATION in the process (8 sacks, #6 FBS)…..We suppose it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise since they played Temple and Houston but they still look WAY better on defense than on offense….378 yards against Temple and just 252 (!) vs Houston….Tulane is coming off a yuuuge battle with Kansas St and now have to hit the road….Can they get up for two very tough Power 4 teams in back-to-back weeks?…..Oklahoma HC Brent Venables is 9-4 ATS as a home fav, Tulane HC Jon Sumrall is a point spread covering machine sent BACK IN TIME from the YEAR 2198 (20-8 ATS)…..Oklahoma has a massive game with Tennessee on deck…..Prefer the dog slightly but the +14 got picked off….We might nibble at +14.5 but doubt it gets there.
No leanage
30. Texas A&M -3.5 Florida (46.5) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -2.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 25 Florida 21.5
The Gators were destroyed in week one by YOUR Miami Hurricanes (L 41-17) but they’ll be facing a much lesser opponent on Saturday at home….Also note in that Miami game whilst we were not surprised that they lost the game there were a lot of smart people in the market that loved the Gators and the line closed below three points…..We’re not sure what that says but it says something…..In any event, we have reports from our DEEP GATORS INSIDERS that QB Graham Mertz is ready to go this week and before you tell us he is horrible, everyone was saying how great he was in August (20-3 TD to INT, 73% last year) and now they have another option at QB in FREAK OF NATURE DJ Lagway and whilst he’s a true freshman he certainly has some skillzz….That’ll make preparation tougher for the Texas A&M defense…..Their DL has been a major disappointment so far….198/180 yards allowed on the ground L2G (109 YPG LY) and they’ve only registered one (!) sack (42 LY)….Meanwhile we may have been wrong about Texas A&M Connor Weigman who’s off to a rough start and the Aggies have nowhere near the weaponry that Miami has on offense….CIRCLE THE WAGONS game for Florida who could be 3-1 hitting the bye week (Miss St next) and here’s a fun fact…..Texas A&M has lost an impossible TEN (!) consecutive true road games…..WAT THE WAT?
Official play: Florida +3.5 -115
Sent 3:00pm EST Sept 11; Write-up posted 3:25pm EST Sept 11.
+3.5 -115 is listed almost everywhere. You can find +3.5 -110 if you shop around. Maybe one in four shops showing that lower price.
31. Coastal Carolina -17.5 Temple (51.5) ……….MEGALOCKS line – Coastal Carolina -18
Vegas Implied Score – Coastal Carolina 34.5 Temple 17
This looks like an unplayable game from an investment standpoint as Temple is PURE FILTH and they’re (-9) in turnover margin thru 2G….Coastal Carolina has bigger fish to fry and they’ve got a rare home game vs a Power 4 school up next (Virginia)….Line looks about right.
No leanage
32. Houston -4 Rice (44.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Houston -3.5
Vegas Implied Score – Houston 24.25 Rice 20.25
Our first reaction was to look at the road dog but Rice has underwhelmed BIGLY on offense so far and QB EJ Warner is averaging just 5.6 YPA after playing Sam Houston and Texas Southern…..Houston just held Oklahoma to 16 points (4.08 YPP) (!) and their offense is a sight to behold in a bad way…..Note that Rice has an impossible 11 sacks in 2G (#1 FBS).
Lean – Under 44.5
Posted 4:55pm
44.5 is the consensus number.
33. Duke -17 Connecticut (47)……….MEGALOCKS line – Duke -17
Vegas Implied Score – Duke 32 Connecticut 15
Duke got a somewhat fortunate cover vs Northwestern last week in OT but they’ve looked strong on defense (16 total points allowed in regulation F2G) and we like what we see from QB M Murphy….The problem is they just don’t have much at RB/WR (6 plays of 20+ yards F2G, #15 ACC) which makes it tricky to cover a big number….UConn disappointed us in week one but they smashed FCS turd Merrimack into the ground last week (W 63-17) and we’re still higher than market on their overall prospects….The intrepid Phil Steele points out that Duke is 17-3 ATS at home L20 vs non-Power 4 teams….Prefer the home team but the line looks fair.
No leanage
34. Minnesota -17.5 Nevada (43.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Minnesota -19
Vegas Implied Score – Minnesota 30.5 Nevada 13
There appears to be a bit of “value” with the home team but note that the Gophers offense is pretty sketchy and they’ve got a yuuuge game with Iowa up next….Nevada has exceeded expectations all year but it’s a tough travel spot and how much can they have left in the tank after three very competitive games?
No leanage
35. Western Kentucky -7 MTSU (54)……….MEGALOCKS line – Western Kentucky -8.5
Vegas Implied Score – Western Kentucky 30.5 MTSU 23.5
Our numbers favor the road favorite but the TOPPERS are a tough team to get a handle upon after losing 63-CACK to ROLL TIDE and taking down Eastern Kentucky (W 31-CACK) and whilst we prefer Western Kentucky in this game keep in mind that this is a conference game and an underrated rivalry…They don’t call it the 100 MILES OF HATE game for nothing.
No leanage
36. Buffalo -3.5 Massachusetts (44.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Buffalo -5
Vegas Implied Score – Buffalo 24 Massachusetts 20.5
The Minutemen didn’t look great to say the least in their opening week home loss to Eastern Michigan but they outgained mighty Toledo on the road last week 384-258 (!) in a 38-23 loss….They might be a bit better than anticipated but we’d need +7 to get on board….Still not sure what to make of Buffalo yet as they beat an FCS team and got blown out by Missouri 38-CACK.
No leanage
37. Florida St -6.5 Memphis (52)……….MEGALOCKS line – Florida St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Florida St 29.25 Memphis 22.5
Will the REAL Florida St PLEASE stand up!…..After a pair of disappointing conference losses to start the season we expect Florida St to put their best foot forward this week (however good that is) seeing as they’re off a bye and HC Mike Norvell is going up against his old team….They should be motivated to deal a blow to Memphis’ playoff aspirations as the Tigers will be in the driver’s seat for the Group of Five playoff berth should they win this game…..Memphis QB Seth Henigan was very average last week vs Troy (!) as he only averaged 5.4 YPA (1-0 TD to INT)….The good news for the Tigers is that they rushed for over 200Y and Florida St has been gashed on the ground in each of their first two contests….Florida St has a bit of hope since Henigan can move around but he’s nowhere near as mobile as the previous two QBs that the Noles faced…..Line looks about right…..Gut says Florida St, logic says Memphis, line doesn’t provide any value.
No leanage
38. Notre Dame -10 Purdue (45.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Notre Dame -13
Vegas Implied Score – Notre Dame 27.75 Purdue 17.75
You’d love to think that this is a classic bounce back spot for the Irish after losing to a MAC team last week but the scary thing about that game was that Northern Illinois outgained Notre Dame 388-286 (!)….Notre Dame still has an excellent defense but Purdue’s Hudson Card is the best QB they’ve faced BY FAR….Also note that Purdue has been LYING IN THE WEEDS waiting for Notre Dame to come to town (bye last week) and they looked good in their 49-CACK week one win over Indiana St….Power ratings say to take Notre Dame but they just aren’t trustworthy at this point and maybe we haven’t downgraded them enough?……Also Purdue has the potential to be a SURPRISE PACKAGE this season but we can’t be sure about that right now.
No leanage
39. Indiana -3 UCLA (46)……….MEGALOCKS line – Indiana -1.5
Vegas Implied Score – Indiana 24.5 UCLA 21.5
The Hoosiers are on SUPAH HOT FIRE to start the season as they outscored the pair of TOMATO CANS they’ve faced by a combined score of 108-10 (!)….UCLA presents a much bigger challenge as mediocre as they looked vs Hawaii….They’re off a bye and Indiana has to make the long trip out west…..We might be getting a wee bit ahead of ourselves with Indiana but you’ve gotta recognize this is one of the biggest head coaching mismatches in the history of organized football and that can’t hurt the Hoosiers’ chances.
No leanage
40. Appalachian St -1.5 East Carolina (60.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Appalachian St -3
Vegas Implied Score – Appalachian St 31 East Carolina 29.5
The ARRRRRRRRRRRR Pirates came thru for us last week but the turned the ball over another four times and that makes it 10 (!) in two games which is the worst total in the nation….They can get away with that vs Norfolk St and Old Dominion but Appalachian St is the toughest opponent to date……We see a bit of value with the road team but how do they react after getting obliterated 66-20 by Clemson last week?…..The Tigers just scored another TD as we were typing this sentence……Fun game to watch, feels like a tossup.
No leanage
41. Sam Houston -4.5 Hawaii (49.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Sam Houston -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Sam Houston 27 Hawaii 22.5
Sam Houston came back down to earth last week after smoking Rice on the road as they got blown out by UCF (L 45-14) but you’ve gotta give them somewhat of a pass on that result as the Knights are a very tough team to play at home….We’re not crazy about the Bearkats on either side of the ball but they’re clearly a better outfit than they were in 2023….Hawaii almost beat UCLA at home in their last game and they roll into town off a bye….They’ve got upset potential with a veteran QB and improved stop unit but note that the Rainbow Warriors are just 1-11 (!!) SU on the road under HC Timmy Chang.
No leanage
42. Florida Atlantic -5 FIU (45)……….MEGALOCKS line – Florida Atlantic -5
Vegas Implied Score – Florida Atlantic 25 FIU 20
Yes, guy……..FIU came thru for ML UNDERDOG CLUB members last week when they SHOCKED the WORLD in a big win over Central Michigan (W 52-16) but it certainly helped that they were +6 (!) in t/o margin…..We’re higher than market on the Panthers and Florida Atlantic is HOT TRASH but we have to respect the fact that the Owls are dropping in class (Michigan St, Army) and they’ve owned the Panthers in the SHULA BOWL (6-0 SU and ATS L6).
No leanage
43. Georgia -24 Kentucky (45)……….MEGALOCKS line – Georgia -23
Vegas Implied Score – Georgia 34.5 Kentucky 10.5
The Wildcats’ offense has been PURE STANK so far and you can put a lot of the blame on the OL….And it doesn’t help that the RB unit is very average…..And we suppose we’re not sure the QB is any good….What we do know is that the Cats still play good defense (131 yards allowed in shortened game vs Southern Miss, 252 vs South Cackalacky) and HC Mark Stoops will do anything to cover a point spread by one point including running over a basket full of kittens with a steamroller **……Georgia is the best team in the country and their defense has been suffocating….We prefer to take the favorite but the price is expensive.
** needs fact check
No leanage
44. Alabama -16 Wisconsin (49)……….MEGALOCKS line – Alabama -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Alabama 32.5 Wisconsin 16.5
In one of the more interesting match-ups of the weekend we have ROLL TIDE traveling to the land of Wisconsin….ROLL TIDE struggled with South Florida last week for the majority of the game and the OL was a mess….They appear to be healthier up front this week but they’ll need to be better….Wisconsin is getting erratic QB play out of Tyler Van Dyke (60%, 6.4 YPA, 1-0 TD to INT) but the defense has been stout (#33 total defense)…..Prefer the Tide in this one but not at this price point….Missed out on the Wisconsin team total under 17.5 and we’d want 17 or better to take it….Nothing for now.
No leanage
45. USF -10.5 Southern Miss (58.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – USF -13
Vegas Implied Score – USF 34.5 Southern Miss 24
The Bulls gave ROLL TIDE all they could handle on the road last week and they were only down by one point heading into the 3Q…..QB Byrum Brown is electric and they’ve got fine THROW GAME weaponry…..The defense looks improved as they held ROLL TIDE to under 400Y of total offense….We prefer the road favorite but need to do a wee bit more digging…..Southern Miss has looked bad so far but this is horrible scheduling spot for the Bulls……Off Alabama and YOUR Miami Hurricanes on deck.
Holding pattern as per above.
46. Mississippi St -10.5 Toledo (57.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -13
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 34 Toledo 23.5
There’s more love in the market than we anticipated for the Rockets who travel to SEC country…..They were outgained at home by UMass (!) last week (384-258) and QB Tucker Gleason is completing just 49% of his passes (6-0 TD to INT)….Mississippi St is in rebuild mode but they started to come around in the 2nd half vs Arizona St last week……On the short list for potential additions to our play list later on Friday. Stay tuned!
Holding pattern as noted above
UPDATE
Lean – Miss St -10.5
Posted 1:35pm Sept 13
-10.5 is the consensus line. There are a small handful of places posting -10 so shop around.
47. Cincinnati -4 Miami Ohio (46.5)……….MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -4
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 25.25 Miami Ohio 21.25
The Bearcats put up over 600Y in their week one win over something called Towson and looked to have win #2 sewn up last week vs Pitt when they took a 27-6 lead……but NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND….Pitt rallied to pull off a 28-27 miracle win and one has to wonder where the Bearcats’ collective heads are at…..The good news is that new starting QB Brendan Sorsby has looked good so far (5-0 TD to INT, 9.9 YPA) and RB Corey Kiner is well on his way to another 1,000-yard season….The defense leaves a lot to be desired but Miami Ohio still has a mediocre offense despite having one of the most talented QBs in the MAC in Brett Gabbert….The Redhawks broke a 16-game (!) losing streak to their hated rivals last year and Cincinnati will be looking to exact revenge….They appear to have too much offense for Miami and note that even in last year’s loss they outgained Miami Ohio 538-358….Another leading candidate for a Friday addition.
Holding pattern as per above.
UPDATE
Lean – Cincinnati -3.5
Posted 1:35pm EST Sept 13
-3.5 is listed almost everywhere.
48. TCU -1 UCF (63)……….MEGALOCKS line – UCF -1
Vegas Implied Score – TCU 32 UCF 31
The Knights have moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on the ground so far vs a pair of stiffs (New Hampshire, Sam Houston) and they’re averaging an impossible 419 YPG on the ground (!) (#1 FBC) whilst getting efficient play out of QB KJ Jefferson (66%, 11.5 YPA, 2-1 TD to INT)…..TCU has been tough vs the run so far but neither Stanford or Long Island present any kind of challenge compared to what they’ll see on Saturday…..Our primary concern with TCU is their inability to run the ball (104 vs Stanford, 127 vs Long Island) and whilst QB Josh Hoover has been solid recall that he had a mediocre 15-9 TD to INT mark LY and he doesn’t exactly dazzle you with his mobility……TCU has lost at least three home games in four of the last five seasons so UCF’s got a good chance to win on the road in this spot and they played well on the road to end the 2023 season…..lost by 2 at Sooners, beat Cincy, lost by 1 at Texas Tech…..Strong possibility we add UCF to the card in some fashion stay tuned!
Holding pattern as noted above.
UPDATE
Official play: UCF +1 -108
Sent 2:05pm EST Sept 13
+1 is the consensus line.
49. Missouri -15.5 Boston College (54)……….MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -14.5
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 34.75 Boston College 18.75
We’re lower than market on the Tigers but we can’t deny that they’ve got an easy schedule to navigate this season, nor can we ignore that they won their first two games (Murray St, Buffalo) by a combined score of 89-CACK….Boston College SHOCKED the WORLD with a win at Florida St and their rushing attack is really humming….The Tigers have been stout vs the run since the start of the 2022 season so it’ll be an interesting battle in the trenches…..Missouri HC Eli Drinkwitz is 5-11-1 ATS as home chalk (1-1 this year)…..but on the other hand…..Missouri is 10-6-1 ATS in their L17 non-conf home tilts….Battle of the trends, BAY-BEE….Our fav play would probably be the ‘over’ but we’ve taken a seat for now.
‘Official play’ means that this is one of our favorite plays of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently investing 25% more on these plays vs our ‘leans’. We’ll normally have two or three of these choices per week.
‘Lean’ means that we’re placing a standard size wager on the game. We’ll normally have about ten of these plays per week. Many members prefer to pick and choose amongst these games when finalizing their weekly investment cards so we’ll continue to refer to them as ‘leans’.
‘No leanage’ means that we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We’ll list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an ‘official play’ we’ll post a widely available number at the time of pick release.